So, if Ryan Howard is on the DL and Jim Thome can’t play first, who should be playing first base for the Phillies? In a recent post I suggested that Ty Wigginton’s career numbers make him look like a good candidate to fill in against lefties, but not against righties. I also suggested that when the other team starts a righty with Howard and Thome unavailable to play first, it looks like between left field and first base there’s an opportunity for the Phils to start two players from the group of Wigginton, Laynce Nix, John Mayberry, Domonic Brown and maybe Juan Pierre.
So, of those five, who are the best choices offensively to play at first and in left?
Remembering that in 2011, the average NL first baseman hit 270/350/451 with an wOBA of .346, here are the numbers against righties for those five players as well as what each of them did against right-handed pitching in 2011:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | |
| Wigginton career | 3238 | 261 | 313 | 437 | 329 |
| Wigginton 2011 | 319 | 235 | 292 | 413 | 310 |
| Mayberry career | 205 | 236 | 317 | 445 | 325 |
| Mayberry 2011 | 176 | 250 | 330 | 455 | 334 |
| Brown career | 230 | 239 | 322 | 408 | 324 |
| Brown 2011 | 174 | 237 | 328 | 401 | 326 |
| Nix career | 1584 | 253 | 296 | 451 | 320 |
| Nix 2011 | 320 | 263 | 306 | 475 | 341 |
| Pierre career | 5549 | 293 | 339 | 369 | 313 |
| Pierre 2011 | 536 | 264 | 296 | 325 | 276 |
The first thing is that none of those numbers are real good. Remembering that the average NL first baseman put up a wOBA of .346 in 2011, nearly all of the numbers on the table above don’t even come close to that — the lone exception is Laynce Nix’s effort against righties from last year in which he put up a wOBA of .341 despite on-basing .306.
Just for giggles, here’s the numbers for Thome and Howard, lefties that really can hit righties and have played first in their careers (although in the interest of full disclosure, Thome hasn’t seen significant time at first since 2005 and likely won’t in 2012, either):
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | |
| Howard career | 2948 | 298 | 397 | 623 | 416 |
| Howard 2011 | 459 | 266 | 370 | 550 | 383 |
| Thome career | 7256 | 293 | 428 | 612 | 432 |
| Thome 2011 | 233 | 257 | 352 | 470 | 353 |
So it’s safe to say that Howard and Thome have been better against righties over their careers than the five guys in the first table.
Back to our five guys. If you put them in order by career wOBA against righties, the list looks like this:
- Wigginton, .329
- Mayberry, .325
- Brown, .324
- Nix, .320
- Pierre, .313
Again, it’s bad news that Ty Wigginton tops that list cause he’s a career 261/313/437 hitter against righties. You really don’t want a guy who’s a career 261/313/437 hitter against righties playing first base for you against them. If you order them by what they did in 2011, the list looks like this:
- Nix, .341
- Mayberry, .334
- Brown, .326
- Wigginton, .310
- Pierre, .276
Sure looks like the answer is not Pierre, but beyond that it gets a little confusing. Part of what makes it confusing is that Mayberry and Brown have so few plate appearances — they each have less than 250 plate appearances against righties for their career while Nix and Wigginton both have at least 1,500. Beyond that, Wigginton’s career numbers against righties are a little better than Nix’s, but Nix’s numbers over the last few seasons top Wigginton’s. Tune in next time.
This article about the Phillies rotation and guys to watch reminds that Austin Hyatt, who will be in Spring Training as an NRI, struck out 171 batters in 154 1/3 innings for Reading last season while throwing to a 3.85 ERA over 28 starts.
February 15th, 2012 on 9:36 am
Scary thought. If it’s the case that Howard can’t go for most of the season, then.. *shudder*.. perhaps we need to sign Raauuulllll as a first base platoon man.
February 15th, 2012 on 9:59 am
Hopefully the solution is that Howard gets healthy soon. I’m up for anything, but I’m kinda hoping we’re done with Raaauuulll for the time being. He also hit 256/307/440 against rigthties last year, so it’s not exactly like he was a house-afire even if he could play first base.
February 15th, 2012 on 10:53 am
For apples-to-apples, what’s that in wOBA?
Also, what as the world come to if I’m suggesting playing Ibanez and DaMannse is suggesting playing Brown?
February 15th, 2012 on 11:22 am
I get .326 when I calculate Ibanez’s wOBA against righties for 2011. He did show some power, hitting 16 homers over his 437 plate appearances, but that .307 on-base percentage hurts. Nix hit for more power against righties than Ibanez in ’11, hitting .263 and slugging .475 while Ibanez hit .256 and slugged .440.
2010 Ibanez, on other hand, hammered righties. 277/366/455. That’s actually less power, but that on-base thing turns out to be important. wOBA of .349.
Don’t know what to make of Brown and Ibanez looking like real options to people. All I’m saying is that if anyone suggests we play Martinez at second and Utley at first I think it’s time to shut the whole thing down.
February 15th, 2012 on 4:35 pm
I guess I’ll keep that suggestion firmly in my head then. (It had crossed my mind..)
February 15th, 2012 on 7:50 pm
If we are talking about Marinez having to play anywhere except batboy, we are talking about a trainwreck of a year, aren’t we?
By the time we get towards the end of spring training, Amaro is going to know a lot more about Howard’s return than he does now. And about how his off season pickups might work out as interims. He will know even more by the trade deadline. If Howard is not looking good for a first half return, Amaro will have some choices to make. He will need a bat. Not for the last time will I say this: I cannot believe that Amaro is done fashioning this team, this team that is built to win NOW.