So who is going to play first base for the Phils against right-handed pitching while Howard is out? Jim Thome is the obvious answer if he can get onto the field, but there doesn’t seem to be a lot of optimism that is going to happen with much regularity. Let’s hope for the best, but I think we have to assume we won’t be seeing much at all of him at first base this year.
So what’s Plan B? Or C or D, for that matter?
Ty Wigginton is the first guy that leaps to mind. But while his career numbers make him look like a solid fill-in against left-handed pitching, his numbers against righties have to make you wary about penciling him in against right-handed pitching too often. Here are Wigginton’s career numbers against lefties and righties as well as the average for NL first basemen in 2011:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | ||
| Wiggonton career | vs L | 1288 | 274 | 353 | 461 | 359 |
| Wigginton career | vs R | 3238 | 261 | 313 | 437 | 329 |
| 2011 | NL average 1B | 270 | 350 | 451 | 346 |
The right-handed hitting Wigginton has been significantly better against left-handed pitching than right over his career. His isolated power against lefties and righties has been similar (.187 against lefties and .176 against righties), but he has a lower average against righties and has drawn walks at a much lower rate. Over his career, Wigginton has walked in about 10.5% of his plate appearances against lefties, but only about 6.0% of his plate appearances against righties. The combination of the slightly lower average against righties and the significantly worse walk rate against them adds up to a .313 career on-base percentage against right-handed pitching. And that makes it tough if you want to play first base against righties.
His numbers against righties over the last three years have actually been a little worse than his career numbers. Here’s what he’s done against righties since 2009:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | |
| 2011 vs R | 319 | 235 | 292 | 413 | 310 |
| 2010 vs R | 476 | 252 | 307 | 436 | 325 |
| 2009 vs R | 275 | 285 | 313 | 437 | 326 |
Ew.
The .285 he hit against righties with the Orioles in 2009 looks nice, but he also showed the least power of the three seasons that year, posting and isolated power of .154 against righties (.184 in 2010 and .178 in 2011). He hasn’t on-based better than .313 against righties in any of the last three years.
Over the last two seasons, between the Orioles and Rockies, Wigginton has gotten 795 plate appearances in which he has hit 245/301/427 against right-handed pitching. In each of the last three seasons, Wigginton’s wOBA against right-handed pitching has been worse than it was in the previous season. 2008 was probably Wigginton’s best year against righties — he hit 265/322/488 in 311 plate appearances for the Astros that year.
Bottom line for me is that I’m hoping we don’t see a whole lot of Wigginton starting at first against right-handed pitching. If everybody is healthy, the best options against a right-handed starter to me appear to include:
- The righty Mayberry at first and the lefty Nix in left or vice-versa
- The lefty Brown in left and Mayberry or Nix, probably the lefty Nix instead of the righty Mayberry, at first
The other bottom line for me is that against a righty you can get two of Nix, Mayberry, Wigginton and Brown (or Pierre) into the lineup between first and left. Of those five players, Nix, Mayberry and Wigginton are the three I would guess are likely to appear at first for the Phils this year. I’d also guess Nix, Mayberry and Brown will appear in left. I’ll look at this more in a future post, but Brown in left and Nix at first against a righty with Howard out seems like the best way to go to me.
This article suggests it was the ’93 Phillies and not Jonah Hill that inspired Moneyball. Or something like that.
February 13th, 2012 on 2:42 pm
In a Brown, Nix and Mayberry triumverate, it’s reeaally hard for me to see Mayberry on the bench with the other two guys playing. Brown/Nix is a toss-up as far as I am concerned, except that Nix is better in the field. Between the two, I think I would sit Nix and play Brown (gulp) – at least before the 8th inning – just because we need to see if Brown can actually play major league ball.
Trade Brown or play him. Nix has to sit until we decide. Mayberry plays. He has earned it, unlike either one of the other two.
February 13th, 2012 on 4:08 pm
It will be interesting to see who is better against right-handed pitching this year between Mayberry and Nix. For Nix’s sake, it had better be Nix given that he is left-handed and Mayberry is right-handed. I think it’s a lot easier to guess what Nix might do against righties in 2012 than Mayberry. I think it’s also hard to know whether Brown will be better than both of them. It doesn’t have to happen in 2012, but if he’s not a whole lot better than at least Nix in the long run his career is in some trouble.
February 13th, 2012 on 5:14 pm
Honestly, I am frustrated by the Nix signing (and by the off season so far). If he is the guy for left field – even on a platoon system – then we are in real trouble. He is a mediocre player at best. Is he really someone a team who wants to win the Series signs? Either it was a purely bad signing, or they have no faith at all in Brown’s being a major league player and they were desperate. If Dom Brown is who they keep saying he is, Nix makes no sense at all to me.
Mayberry has earned a real spot. Not a platoon spot, but a real honest-to-God spot. None of the other guys they have available (which is Amaro’s BIGGEST off season failure so far) are even close to showing the ability he has. And yeah, that includes Dom Brown.
February 14th, 2012 on 10:51 am
Let’s assume Victorino’s trend continues, and Brown actually learns how to play this year. How do we look with Mayberry in center?
February 14th, 2012 on 11:04 am
I really think it’s hard to know what to expect from Mayberry offensively. So far he’s been a lot better than I expected. If what he did in 2011 is a sign of things to come, he’s could be great. I would expect that he will continue to hit for real power, but I’m not sure that he’s going to get on base enough, against righties especially, to be a good every day player.
I think he’s going to get a lot of chances early in the year in 2012, so we get to see a lot of him soon.
February 14th, 2012 on 12:58 pm
I think we look a lot different. Mayberry doesn’t really have the speed to play center. He’s athletic enough to play there in a pinch or a week or two at a time, but to expect 150+ games from him in CF would probably weaken the defense overall.
I think the Phillies best hope is to get Vic on another three year contract after this season.
February 14th, 2012 on 1:59 pm
I don’t think there’s much of a question that Victorino is much better defensively at center than Mayberry would be. I really can’t imagine a scenario where Mayberry was the full-time CF without an injury to Victorino. Even if the Phils don’t bring Victorino back, they won’t have an opening in center field until next year when Mayberry will be 29. I don’t think that’s a realistic time to start your career as an everyday CF.
Bigger issue for Mayberry, though, is whether what he did in 2010 & 2011 with the Phils is real or an illusion. Again, I sure hope I’m wrong, but my guess is he’ll get a lot of time early in the season in 2012, hit for a lot of power but with a low (sub .320) on-base percentage that makes him hard to play everyday or regularly against righties.
February 14th, 2012 on 10:28 pm
Well, one thing is likely; whoever plays first will get more time at first than anyone really wants them to have. The orthopedic docs I know keep telling me that an achilles injury takes a year to come back from. If so, then we may get to try out lots of guys.
February 15th, 2012 on 9:06 am
If Howard is out a long time, longer than expected, and Thome can’t play first, I think the Phils are going to have some problems at the position. Cause no matter who is the best choice to put at first against a righty, it sure looks to me like the Phils don’t have a good option there against right-handed pitching.