In yesterday’s post I pointed out that the number of bases the Phillies have been stealing has dropped off in recent years. In 2011, for the fourth straight year, the Phillies stole fewer bases than they had in the previous season. In three of those four years, their safe rate also went down from the previous year.
In 2007, the Phils were second in the NL in stolen bases with 138. In 2008 they were third with 136. Last year they stole 96, which was eleventh in the league.
So where did all the stolen bases go? Here’s who stole the bases for the Phils in 2007, 2008 and 2011:
|
Year |
Player |
SB |
CS |
Safe |
|
2007 |
Jimmy Rollins |
41 |
6 |
87.2% |
|
2008 |
Jimmy Rollins |
47 |
3 |
94.0% |
|
2011 |
Jimmy Rollins |
30 |
8 |
78.9% |
It sure seems like getting older should be the answer, and it probably is. Notably, though, Chase Utley’s stolen bases haven’t slowed since ’07 and ’08. Utley got 159 fewer plate appearances in 2011 than he got in either of 2007 or 2008, but still managed to steal 14 bags, as many as he swiped in ’08 and more than ’07.
The guys that are dramatically down are Rollins and Victorino. In 2007, they combined to steal 78 bases and in 2008 they combined to steal 83. In 2011, they combined to steal 49. In 2001, when the Phils led the NL with 153 stolen bases, they combined to steal 46 with Victorino not on the team. He was busy hitting 283/344/400 (and stealing 47 bases) for the Wilmington Waves in the Dodger organization.
Finally, during the 2007 and 2008 seasons, the Phillies also benefited significantly from the stolen base efforts of Michael Bourn and Jayson Werth. Bourn stole 18 bases for the Phils in 2007 and was caught just once. Between 2007 and 2008, Jayson Werth stole 27 bases and was caught twice.
February 8th, 2012 on 2:32 pm
It may also be possible that a certain coaching change at first base has not helped.
February 8th, 2012 on 2:38 pm
I definitely think it’s possible. I don’t think the change could have helped. At the same time, I would guess the aging of the primary base-stealers is a bigger factor. I think another thing is that Rollins, one of the biggest contributors in the category, has missed significant time due to injury over the past two seasons. In 2010 he got less than 400 plate appearances. Last year he got a lot more than that, but was still just at 631. From 2001 through 2009 he got at least 700 in seven of nine seasons.
February 8th, 2012 on 4:58 pm
Yup. Most phenomena have multiple causes. This is one of them. The injury factor, taking elite players out of the game and replacing them with second line players, has to hurt in more ways than merely batting. Age certainly slows every human; all the evidence I need to have for that is to try to out run my nephew.
I just miss Davey Lopes. The Phillies do too, I am thinking. We should have spent the money. Oh well. I am sure that when I am the Phillies’ GM we will win 5 Series in a row.
February 8th, 2012 on 5:07 pm
As a Domonic Brown fan, I’m hoping that when they make you the GM of the Phils you give your manager a lot of room when selecting his outfielders. I kinda miss Lopes, too.
February 9th, 2012 on 12:06 pm
I could’ve lived without the Rod Barajas reference while eating my lunch today. Couldn’t you have put “misc. catcher” in that column or something?
I think Lopes had his biggest effect on Vic. His rates seem to rise and fall much in line with Lopes being around and not.
February 9th, 2012 on 12:52 pm
Greg Golson is a little tough for me to look at, too.
I don’t think there’s any question that the Lopes years, 2007-2010, have been the best stolen base years for Victorino so far. I really think it’s hard to know how big a factor Lopes was in that, though. Victorino was always crazy fast, stealing 40 bases in a minor league season twice before he was 22. He just didn’t run with the Phils when he came up in 2006 when he stole just four bases, then took off in ’07 with 37. I would guess his days of stealing 35 bags are gone, but we’ll have to wait and see.
February 9th, 2012 on 4:09 pm
It just seemed as though he had more confidence with Lopes around. He stole a lot of bases in the minors, but he was caught a lot too. His success rates are nearly 10% better (~70% vs. ~ 80%) in the majors, which would seem counter-intuitive in most cases.
At any rate, I also think his high stolen base days are gone no matter who is coaching first.
February 9th, 2012 on 6:49 pm
Just don’t call him the Dyin’ Hawaiian.
February 9th, 2012 on 7:59 pm
How bout the Not Tryin’ To Steal So Much Anymore Hawaiian?