Joel Pineiro has a minor league deal with the Phils and there’s a reasonable chance he’ll get some starts with the team during the 2012 season. The 33-year-old righty was solid with the Cardinals and Angels in 2009 and 2010, making 55 starts between the two teams combined and throwing to 3.64 ERA with a 1.18 ratio.
In 2011, though, he had a miserable year with the Angels and finished the season with a 5.13 ERA and a 1.51 ratio. Through 14 starts in ’11 Pineiro sported a 3.90 ERA that hid the true story. He had a 1.43 ratio to go with it, having allowed 106 hits in 90 1/3 innings. Over his last 13 appearances, ten of which were starts, things blew up as he threw to a 7.11 ERA with a 1.63 ratio. In his last 23 appearances on the season, from May 21 to the end of the year, he allowed 160 hits in 118 1/3 innings pitched.
So allowing a ton of hits in 2011 was a big part of the problem for Pineiro. But there were others. Here are his combined numbers for 2009 and 2010 and for 2011 (in 2009 he threw 214 innings with St Louis in the NL, in 2010 152 1/3 with the Angels):
| IP | ERA | Ratio | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | |
| 2009-2010 | 366 1/3 | 3.64 | 1.18 | 9.2 | 1.5 | 4.8 |
| 2011 | 145 2/3 | 5.13 | 1.51 | 11.2 | 2.3 | 3.8 |
And here’s what righties and lefties did against him in those two years combined and in 2011:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | % H | % BB | % SO | % HR | % 1B | |
| ’09-’10 vs Right | 751 | 273 | 302 | 385 | 25.7 | 3.1 | 13.2 | 1.6 | 18.9 |
| ’09-’10 vs Left | 748 | 258 | 295 | 402 | 24.1 | 5.1 | 13.1 | 1.9 | 15.5 |
| ’09-’10 Total | 1499 | 265 | 298 | 393 | 24.9 | 4.1 | 13.1 | 1.7 | 17.2 |
| ’11 vs Right | 298 | 299 | 330 | 448 | 28.2 | 4.4 | 11.4 | 3.0 | 20.1 |
| ’11 vs Left | 333 | 322 | 372 | 474 | 29.4 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 2.1 | 20.4 |
| ’11 Total | 631 | 311 | 352 | 462 | 28.8 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 2.5 | 20.3 |
It’s not on the chart above, but in both 2009 and 2010 combined and in 2011, Pineiro gave up a double or a triple to about 6.0% of the batters he faced. Just about everything else got worse in 2011. Pineiro doesn’t rack up strikeouts, even when he’s pitching well, but his strikeouts were down in ’11. He gave up way more singles, walked a lot more hitters and gave up home runs at a higher rate. The walks were up more dramatically than the hits. Compared to his ’09-’10 numbers, his walks rose at about the same rate against lefties and righties.
Important to remember is that coming into the 2009 season with the Cardinals, Pineiro hadn’t been good for a while. From 2004 to 2008, he pitched for the Mariners, Red Sox and Cardinals, throwing to a 5.34 ERA and a 1.47 ratio. Over those five seasons, he allowed way too many hits, giving up 867 in 741 2/3 innings.
From 2001 to 2003, Pineiro pitched for Seattle and allowed just 431 hits in 481 1/3 innings (8.1 hits per nine). In ’03 he was seventh in the AL in fewest hits allowed per nine at 8.16. That was the end of that, though. From 2004 to 2008, he allowed 10.5 hits per nine innings and he hasn’t allowed fewer than nine hits per nine innings in any year since 2003.
I think the other things to be wary about Pineiro’s recent history are 1) his 2010 season with the Angels wasn’t that fantastic and 2) his 2009 season with the Cardinals was pretty fantastic, but during that year he prevented walks at an outstanding rate he has never matched in his career and likely won’t ever match again.
In 2010 with the Angels, Pineiro threw to an ERA+ of 104. He allowed more than a hit per inning and his walk rate from 2009 jumped.
In 2009, Pineiro walked 27 batters in 214 innings. That’s 1.14 per nine innings and in 2009 he led the NL in the category. By a lot. Arizona’s Dan Haren was second and he allowed 1.49 walks per nine that year.
Pineiro hasn’t been in the top ten in his league in fewest walks per nine innings in any other year of his career. From the start of his career in 2000 through the end of 2008, he walked 7.2% of the batters that he faced. In 2009, he walked 3.1% of the batters he faced. He faced 445 right-handed batters that year and walked ten of them (2.2%). Over the last two years, his walk rate has been down, but nowhere near as low as it was in 2009. He’s walked about 5.7% of the batters he’s faced since the start of the 2010 season and about 4.3% of the righties.
Both sides seem to think that Hamels and the Phillies will discussed a long-term contract during spring training.
In this article, Hamels’s agent suggests that the pitcher’s next contract will reflect his eliteness. Or at least it would if that was a word. The agent also suggests that Jared Weaver left a lot of money on the table in signing his five-year, $85 million deal.
This says that Jeremy Accardo has agreed to a minor league deal with the Indians.
This suggests that Amaro said left field will be a Mayberry/Nix platoon and Brown will start the year in the minors barring a monster spring training.
This suggests that Amaro said Ty Wigginton will be the primary first baseman for the Phils while Howard is out with Thome backing him up.
January 19th, 2012 on 12:56 pm
Geez…I actually kinda liked the Pineiro signing until I read this.
I think the Mayberry/Nix platoon in left makes the most sense with Mayberry getting some starts at first against righties. If Brown has a great month in Lehigh Valley, bring him up and cut bait with Nix. I’m fine with that.
Would love to see Hamels sign an extension this spring. Maybe they can give him Howard’s contract and let Ryan become a free agent?
January 19th, 2012 on 1:12 pm
I’m hoping for the best on Pineiro. But I do worry that the only season he’s had to get real excited about in the last eight years was ’09 and that year he prevented walks at a rate he seems unlikely to repeat. Is it too late for the Phils to hire Dave Duncan?
I say they just keep Howard and teach him how to pitch like Hamels. That can be Plan B if the Vegas thing doesn’t work out.
I’m not a fan of the Mayberry/Nix platoon in left. I don’t think you want to use a lot of guys pinch-hitting for your left fielder and I’d like to see Mayberry get time at first while Howard is out. Nix isn’t good enough against righties to give him a job as a specialist hitting against them. I would much rather have seen the Phillies give that job to Brown. Not clear to me if Nix is Brown insurance or if the Phils really see it as only one of Nix or Brown can be on the roster at the same time. No problem with Nix if the Phils give Brown the fifth outfielder job or bring in another outfielder. Somebody like Ben Francisco, for example.
January 19th, 2012 on 2:12 pm
If Mayberry isn’t the guy in left, I have no idea what Amaro is doing at all. Nix/Brown have demonstrated that they are not ready for prime time, and may not be good enough for prime time ever. Nix has never been more than an occasional bat, has he? And while Brown’s ineptitude in left field may be acceptible if his bat is thunderous – Luzinski, Burrell, et al – his “upside” there is not certain or even probable. Linus was right; there is no heavier burden than a great potential. Brown has not borne his well.
That left field looks like it is going to be this huge question mark makes me wonder what is going on in Amaro’s head. It looks like Amaro is betting a terrific pitching staff on John Mayberry, Ryan Howard’s effective return, and Utley being the Utley of yore. Trifectas have long odds for a reason.
January 19th, 2012 on 2:35 pm
I think Nix has proven he can hit for power against right-handed pitching. I think he’s also proven that he will hit for a low average and post a low on-base percentage against righties. The power is real, though. Last year, for example, he got 320 plate appearances against righties and hit 16 homers against them. In 2009 he showed even more power against righties, hitting 23 doubles and 15 home runs over 303 plate appearances with an isolated power of .253.
The combination of the really low on-base percentage against righties and being basically unusable against lefties (181/235/271 for his career) make him a pretty one dimensional overall. Like I said above, if the Phils are only going to have one of Nix and Brown on their roster, it seems like a no-brainer to go with Brown.
January 19th, 2012 on 4:03 pm
While I have very little hope Brown is who he was/is supposed to be, I have to agree that Brown ought to get the nod over Nix. Either he can do the job or he can’t, but it has to be getting to be time to find out, isn’t it?
January 19th, 2012 on 5:00 pm
I think it would be a mistake for the Phillies not to give Brown a whole bunch of at-bats (300?) this year. But I think it’s a mistake that they’re not going to make. Right now they look like they have room to put him on the opening day roster if they want to. We’ll see if they want to.
I’m not worried about his hitting. If they can send him someplace where they teach him not to run around in circles around fly balls before diving and missing, though, that seems like it might be worthwhile.
January 19th, 2012 on 5:04 pm
Yeah. You know how hard it is for me to admit this, but I agree with your take on how they ought to use Brown this year. If they aren’t gonna go and get someone wonderful, it is time to find out if Brown is. Gonna be wonderful, that is.
January 19th, 2012 on 5:07 pm
Um, can Brown play at first?
January 20th, 2012 on 10:51 am
Not so much on Brown at first. Not sure it’s the time to be giving him something new to work on. I would devote some time to catching fly balls, though.
January 20th, 2012 on 12:20 pm
I seem to remember more than one play last year where Pence turned routine fly balls into doubles as well. Why does nobody hate his defense?
I’m looking forward to seeing Brown do well this year. I really hope it happens in Philadelphia and not so much in Lehigh Valley.
January 20th, 2012 on 1:19 pm
I actually don’t remember Pence looking bad defensively last year. I believe it happened, but it didn’t stick out for me.
I really remember Brown looking absolutely baffled, like he didn’t belong on the field.
Defensive stats are admittedly voodoo, but if you look it up it’s not good news for Brown. They really say he was as bad as he looked. 115 outfielders played at least 450 innings defensively last year — his UZR/150 was 115th. In 2010, he only played about 100 innings, but that stat says he was worse (-37.9 in 2010, -26.0 in 2011). Of 192 players in either league who played 100 innings in the outfield, his UZR/150 was 185th.
The same stats for Pence say he was bad in 2011, but not nearly as bad as Brown (-5.3 between the Phils and Houston vs -26.0 for Brown). They also say he was good defensively in the outfield in 2008 and 2009 and around average in 2010 and 2007.
Again, there’s still not a whole of data on Brown as a defensive outfielder. But what there is says he’s been almost unusably terrible.
January 20th, 2012 on 2:13 pm
Don’t get me wrong, not saying that Brown has even shown to be adequate out there as of yet, but I just find it funny that I can think of at least two plays last year where Pence stumbled around in right field and then pretty much fell over before the ball game down and I seem to be the only one that remembers. I’m married, so I’m used to being the only one that remembers things, but I sometimes wonder if the Brown bashing has gone too far. One thing I know for sure is that Jarred Cosart, Domingo Santana, and Jonathon Singleton weren’t falling all over themselves in the Philadelphia outfield last year!
Brown has a long way to go defensively, which is odd to me because during his time in the minors, he never really showed any signs of being THIS bad. But, his struggles defensively is why I would be a fan of him starting the year as an Iron Pig for the first month of the season to get regular reps in the outfield and make sure he’s gotten the yips out.
January 20th, 2012 on 2:54 pm
Honestly, I think the Brown bashing on his defense hasn’t gone far enough. I think it’s a pretty big issue, cause he’s really going to be hard to put on the field if he doesn’t get a lot better than he was over the last two years. It seems like there are a lot of people who were down on Brown last year cause he went 1-for-16 in spring training and didn’t run out a ground ball. I think there are reasons to worry about him, but those two aren’t at the top of the list.
January 20th, 2012 on 6:19 pm
It has been a long time since I have seen anyone look as lost in the field as Dom Brown. I kept hearing about this guy being a “five tool guy”. I think that assessment is optimistic given what we saw last year. Hunter Pence is no Roberto Clemente, but he was considerably better than Dom Brown.
January 23rd, 2012 on 2:54 pm
I seem to recall a couple occasions last year after Brown got sent down where he made even more unbelievably awful gaffes in the outfield. Dude terrifies me.
First base ultra-terrifies me. I’m less afraid of Thome getting more time and being terrible defensively than I am of him just wearing down quickly due to his age with the increased usage. Wiggy’s prowess with the bat doesn’t exactly inspire tons of confidence, and he’s also sort of not great in the field.
It would make me happiest to see Mayberry get significant time at first as he looks to be the best shot to not be awful defensively and boasts the best potential upside. Unfortunately, I came to the stunning realization recently that we do not run this team. #occupysomething
January 24th, 2012 on 9:30 am
I think Brown was really notably bad in the outfield in both 2010 and 2011. Terrifies me, too.
I’m less scared of 1B cause I’m hopeful that Howard won’t miss too much time. I don’t think Thome is going to play very much there and if that’s the case the Phils don’t have a great solution there against righties. I think against lefties it’s Wigginton at first and Mayberry in left. Against righties it’s Mayberry at first and Nix in left. I’m hoping we don’t see too much Wigginton at first against righties.