In 2011, for the second straight season, Chase Utley’s offensive performance left people worrying if the old Utley was gone forever. Since the start of the 2010 season, he has now hit 267/367/435 over his last 965 plate appearances. Utley made his debut with the Phils in 2003 and got 287 plate appearances with the team in 2004. From 2005 through 2009, Utley hit 301/388/535 over 3,374 plate appearances.
First things first — a .367 on-base percentage over the last two years is better than fine. In 2011, there were 99 NL batters who got at least 400 plate appearances and 16 of them on-based better than .367. Even in his two down years combined, Utley still hit for more power than an average NL second baseman. Over the last two years, his isolated power is .168. Last year in the NL, the average NL second baseman’s isolated power was .123. But a lot better than average or not, it’s not 301/388/535 and the Chase Utley of the last two years hasn’t been the same guy we saw earlier in his career.
Here’s the percentage of plate appearances for Chase Utley that have ended in hits, walks, strikeouts, singles, doubles, triples, home runs or an extra-base hit of any kind for the years 2005 through 2009 and for 2010 and 2011:
| Years | PA | H | BB | SO | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | XBH |
| ’05-’09 | 3374 | 25.9 | 9.9 | 16.1 | 15.1 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 10.8 |
| ’10-’11 | 965 | 22.8 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 14.9 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 7.9 |
The good news is that over the last two years, Utley has been more likely to walk in a plate appearance and less likely to strike out. His triples are up a tiny bit and the percentage of his plate appearances in which he got a single is only down a little. The bad news is pretty much everything else — hits overall are way down and his plate appearances were far less likely to end in a double or a home run.
Not shown on the table above are the overall percentage of his hits that went for extra-bases. From 2005 through 2009 it was 41.7%, in 2010 and 2011 combined it was 34.5%.
Over the last two years, Utley has hit 27 home runs in 965 plate appearances. From 2005 to 2009, he averaged 29.2 home runs a season. If he had hit home runs at his 2005-2009 rate over his 965 plate appearances in ’10 and ’11 combined, he would have hit about 41.8.
When you look at his left-right power over the last two years, it’s up and down. In 2010 he was a monster against lefties and miserable against righties. In 2011, he was up against righties, but still way below his ’05-’09 numbers, and way down against lefties.
When you combine his isolated power numbers for ’05-’09 against lefties and righties, though, and compare them to the same numbers in 2010 and 2011 combined, the numbers are dramatic:
| Vs Lefties | Vs Righties | |||||||
| Years | AB | AVG | SLG | ISO | AB | AVG | SLG | ISO |
| ’05-’09 | 958 | 285 | 501 | 216 | 1951 | 309 | 551 | 242 |
| ’10-’11 | 243 | 247 | 461 | 214 | 580 | 276 | 424 | 148 |
So, against lefties, despite the up and down over the last two years, in 2010 and 2011 his isolated power is almost exactly what it was from 2005 through 2009 (.216 from ’05 to ’09 and .214 from ’10 to ’11).
Against righties it was .242 from 2005 to 2009, but .148 in 2010 and 2011 combined. Utley’s numbers took a dive against righties in 2010 when he hit just 266/371/381 against them. He got better in 2011, while at the same time dropping off dramatically after a huge year against left-handed pitching. Even in 2011, though, he wasn’t hitting with as much power against righties as he had from ’05 to ’09. In 2011, Utley hit 285/362/467 against righties, giving him an isolated power mark of .182. That’s a whole lot better than the .114 he put up in 2010, but still a lot worse than anything he did in the six-year span from 2005 to 2009. During that stretch, his worst mark for isolated power was in 2009 — that season he hit 279/387/489 against righties, giving with an isolated power of .211 (nearly a hundred points better than in 2011).
Final note is that his isolated power against lefties over the last two years matches up with the previous six only because of his huge results against lefties in 2010. In 2011, his isolated power mark against lefties was .121 as he hit just .187 and slugged .308 against lefties. That’s almost as bad as the .114 against righties in 2010. Against lefties, his worst mark in any year 2005 to 2009 was 2006 when he put up and isolated power of .162 against left-handed pitching.
Ryan Madson’s agent and Amaro seem to have differing opinions about what happened before Madson agreed to pitch for the Reds.
The Phils will get two picks for losing Madson.
This says that the Phillies released John Bowker so he could sign a deal to play in Japan.
This suggests the Phils may be trying to sign right-handed reliever Jeremy Accardo to a minor league deal. Accardo was great with the Blue Jays in 2007 and good in limited action with them in 2009. He was bad in 2008 and threw to a 6.09 ERA in 44 1/3 innings in 2010 and 2011 combined.
This says the Phillies are hopeful that Howard will return to the lineup sometime in May.


January 12th, 2012 on 11:42 am
Let’s give everyone steroids. Less injuries, more power. Everyone wins (and hits).
January 12th, 2012 on 11:47 am
Either that or maybe let’s just give Utley a new hip. And Howard a new leg. And Hamels a new contract.
January 12th, 2012 on 1:17 pm
When you put it like that, it just makes me depressed. I’m not saying we need time machines, because Stephen Hawking will robot-call me stupid, but time machines.
January 12th, 2012 on 1:21 pm
I definitely think if we get a time machine and go back and get two Chase Utleys from 2007 we should play one of them at third. While we’re at it, we might want to go back to every year since Michael Martinez’s birth and see if there was ever a time he could hit too.
January 12th, 2012 on 2:01 pm
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=phi
Are we not entertained? The answer is precisely no. The Winter leagues are where terrible hitters go to keep their jobs and Martinez threw up a .113/.200/.127(!!!) slash line in 71 at-bats.
Wilson Valdez (.209/.253/.295) and Freddy Galvis (.249/.308/.333) were also pretty bad. Galvis was moderately better, but this is Winter League. Is it too late to convert Valdez into a pitcher full time?
I weep for our depth.
January 12th, 2012 on 4:54 pm
My plan is to go to Vegas, win $80 million dollars, and give it to Cole over the next four years to continue to pitch in red and white pinstripes. Do you think that will work?
January 12th, 2012 on 4:56 pm
I consider myself mildly entertained. Willing to learn.
I weep for our depth, too. On the other hand, you’re probably going to have to weep for something and, that being the case, I’d rather it be backup shortstop than like #1 starter or catcher or something.
January 12th, 2012 on 4:57 pm
Guess we posted at the same time, Greg.
I feel pretty sure that will work. Good idea.
January 12th, 2012 on 6:42 pm
Given first, third, and questions at left and even behind the plate, the weeping may need to focus on more than our depth. We have some real holes. Nor are we in the NL East we have been spoiled with over the past few years. I think it is fair to say that even if the Nats do not land a certain prodigious first baseman.
Marlins: Reyes, Bonifacio, Ramirez, Stanton are the first four guys up. Seems pretty impressive to me. And then Morrison and Sanchez. These guys are backing up Johnson, Buehrle, Sanchez, Nolasco, and Zambrano. If the Braves and Nats get healthy, there will be no easy time next year.
Oddly, to me, the only place we may have gotten stronger IS our depth or am I wrong here. Our front line may be stronger IF Utley is not a declining shadow of himself and IF we have him for the year. And IF Howard is back at the All Star break. And IF the Vanimal can repeat his first year. And IF Martinez and Valdez are not our third baseman.
I am not quite ready to weep. But I am really concerned. I had thought RAJ would have improved the eight starters with maybe one major addition.
January 12th, 2012 on 10:58 pm
Yes, the depth is better with Nix and Wigginton (and Thome – he can still hit). Hopefully Martinez will spend the year as an Iron Pig.
I also like the bullpen (provided Willis faces as few righties as possible).
Last year they scored 12% more than the NL average after Utley returned — highest in the league, better than the 2010 team (+10%), and almost as good as the 2009 Phils (+14%).
And while they’ll be missing Howard to start, they’ll have a full year of Pence.
January 13th, 2012 on 9:16 am
And Mayberry. Again, I don’t think he’s as good as he looked last year. But if he is, giving him way more at-bats means a whole lot of offense.
Even if he isn’t, replacing Ibanez in left gives them a big opportunity to create offense.
Domonic Brown is still a guy with huge offensive potential.
I’m excited to see what they do with Thome and how often, if ever, he gets on the field defensively at first. The Phils also play nine DH games before June 18 this year.
January 13th, 2012 on 9:41 am
DM, why are you so down on Chooch?
January 13th, 2012 on 10:54 am
Not sure about DaMannse’s thinking about Ruiz, but it’s hard for me to see him as a hole or a potential hole. His power was off last year over his two previous years, but it’s tough to argue with the .371 on-base percentage. Among NL players who got 150 plate appearances as a catcher, nobody posted a better on-base percentage.
His power was down, curiously especially against lefties. He didn’t hit a home run against lefties in all of 2011 and slugged just .337 against them.
He was undeniably miserable in the post-season elimination series against both the Cards and the Giants, going 4-for-35 with a 114/225/200 line in those two sets combined. That’s obviously a tiny number of chances and I’m not sure there’s much you can do about it.
I do hope we see his power return some in 2012. Using isolated power as the measure, among the 29 NL players with at least 150 plate appearances as a catcher, his isolated power in 2009 was 7th best. In 2010 he was 12th of 26. Last year he was 19 of 27.
January 13th, 2012 on 1:50 pm
My concern, I guess, is that these guys are getting older. The older they get the more likely a fall off in production is not a blip so much as a curve in the wrong direction. Chooch is wonderful behind the plate. But his power was down, and his post season was terrible. Maybe that is a blip from which he rebounds. Maybe it is just getting older and has had too many games behind the plate – a condition not likely to change in 2012 given his back up. There just seems to be an awful lot of “ifs” that have to pan out for the Phillies to have a good year in 2012.
The thing is, there is a real possibility that this is going to be a more general trend. Jimmy has been going down. Utley has been going down. Howard, even healthy, has been going down. That does not make them bad because they were once the most feared at their positions in the game, and they may bounce back. But if they do, that will mean bending the curve the other direction. If they don’t, the the Fish look better, 1 through 4, than the Phillies.
Remember last winter when we were all talking about having four 20 game winners? The question is, Why didn’t we have three? Why only one, and barely at that? Especially when every other team in our division was gutted by injuries. I am not “wowed” by the number of wins we had last year; given our pitching, why weren’t there more?
I think the answer is the lineup. The lineup that folded at the end of the regular season. And for the 3rd year in a row, the post season.
I just wanted Amaro to make the line up better. He didn’t. Maybe all of the guys who have been down bend the curve the other direction, but that is an awfully large maybe. Hunter Pence isn’t good enough to make up for the individual curves continuing to bend down.
January 13th, 2012 on 2:05 pm
The lineup last year was arguably better than in 2008 — at least for the 2/3 of the season after Utley came back.
January 13th, 2012 on 3:20 pm
There’s something Yankee-esque about breaking the franchise record for victories and complaining that it wasn’t enough.
—
I think it was Larry Bowa that said that in any season, you are guaranteed to win 50 games and lose 50 games. It’s what you do with the other 62 that matter. The 2011 Phils were 52-10 in those games. The manner of victory may not have been what we are accustomed to, but it’s really frikken hard to improve those results. Entire seasons go by with no 100-win team; the 2010 Phils were tops in the majors at 98? (97?)
Certainly, looking past 2012, we’re seeing that core pieces of the 2008 championship team are going to need replacing. I don’t think 2012 itself will present much of a concern. And drawing conclusions off a 5-game playoff series in which we outscored the opponent and lost is just not possible.
January 13th, 2012 on 3:30 pm
The arc of the curves I am talking about is longer than one regular season and only one playoff series. If those curves continue to extend in the direction they have been going over the past several years, 2012 might be pretty difficult.
January 13th, 2012 on 4:39 pm
Sure, the arcs of some individual players is on the decline, to the point where some of them are merely better than average. But let’s not discount the contributions of other players (Pence, Mayberry, and the pitching staff) that raised the team’s win total in spite of that.
2013 will see a new face a third base; of that we can be sure. It may even see Mayberry in center, a productive Brown in left, and Victorino traded for infield/catching depth. Who knows? I can’t get worked up on so many individual performances when I see the total team result.
January 13th, 2012 on 5:55 pm
Jim, I can see what you are talking about happening. I really can. I just am really disappointed in what Amaro has done to get ready for what is a critical year. When I thought of how he would act to improve this team, I did not think it would be by just “strengthening the bench”. That he has not addressed either third or left – especially with Howard going down – just leaves me completely stunned. Given what the other teams in the NL East have done, it is not hard for me to imagine the Phillies not making the post season.
January 13th, 2012 on 7:37 pm
If there was a move to make on 3rd base, he probably would have done it. He may still do something at the deadline. But, given the options, I can see why he didn’t do anything there.
I don’t feel bad about left. R2D2 would be an improvement over Ibanez, so this is certainly addition by subtraction even if Mayberry & friends have an average year.