Back to Utley and Pence soon, but I did just need to take a minute to stop and point out that the Phillies third basemen didn’t hit for much power in 2011. Really they didn’t.
Using slugging percentage minus average as the formula for Isolated Power, the Phils were 16th in the 16-team NL in the category. Phillie third basemen combined to hit .266 for the year and slug .342, which gives them an .076 Isolated Power. Here’s how that stacks up with the rest of the NL for last year:
| AVG | SLG | ISO | NL-Rank ISO | |
| Chicago Cubs San Francisco Arizona Atlanta Cincinnati NY Mets Houston Washington Colorado St. Louis Pittsburgh Milwaukee San Diego LA Dodgers Florida Philadelphia |
310 294 251 267 243 274 259 267 222 269 224 215 262 228 260 266 |
498 478 412 422 397 418 388 394 348 393 333 324 368 325 347 342 |
188 184 161 155 154 144 129 127 126 124 109 109 106 097 087 076 |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 13 14 15 16 |
The Phils just barely out-feebled the Fish, who were pretty atrocious at generating power at 3B theirownselves. During the ’11 season, the Phils third baseman hit for a solid enough average, .266 compared to the positional average of .257, but slugged just .342 — .045 lower than the positional average of .387.
So they were bad. But how bad? When was the last time that an NL team saw their 3B combine to put up an Isolated Power mark of .076 or worse? It’s been a while. Here’s what the Phillies, as well as the team in the NL with the worst mark in the category for the year, have done over the last eight seasons:
| Worst Team ISO 3B | ISO by 3B | PHI ISO 3B | PHI Rank | |
| 2011 | PHI | 076 | 076 | 16 |
| 2010 | STL | 078 | 094 | 15 |
| 2009 | FLA | 083 | 123 | 13 |
| 2008 | LAD | 131 | 155 | 12 |
| 2007 | PHI | 113 | 113 | 16 |
| 2006 | PHI | 093 | 093 | 16 |
| 2005 | STL | 099 | 117 | 13 |
| 2004 | SD | 074 | 166 | 10 |
So, in three of the last eight years, the Phillie third baseman have had the worst isolated power in the NL. The last time an NL team saw their 3B put up a worse Isolated Power number than the Phillies did 2011 was the 2004 San Diego Padres. Sean Burroughs led the charge for the Padres at third that year and hit nearly .300 for the season, but with very little power and just two home runs (one of which came as a pinch-hitter and not a third baseman) over 564 plate appearances, posting a 298/348/365 line (and an isolated power mark of .067). In the defense on Burroughs, some of the damage at third was done by Rich Aurilia, Jeff Cirillo, Ramon Vasquez and Dave Hansen. That group combined to hit for no power as well, but hit just .211 over 166 at-bats while doing so.
The list above is rather ugly for the Phils. In terms of power at the position, the Phils best mark over the past eight seasons came in 2004. David Bell had the best year of his career for the Phils in 2004, hitting 291/363/458 over 603 plate appearances. That was good enough for a career best OPS+ of 107 for Bell.
Back with the 2011 Phillies, the problems with their power aren’t just about hitting home runs. Phillie third basemen hit eight in 2011, which isn’t a lot, but still better than two other NL teams (Florida and San Diego). The problem was doubles — the ’11 Phillies got just 18 doubles from their third basemen combined.
Including the 2011 Phillie team, over the last 15 years there have only been three teams that got less than 20 doubles from their third baseman in a season and only one team saw their third basemen deliver less than 18 doubles. The 3B for the 2002 Padres doubled 18 times, tying the Phillies mark from 2011. The 3B for the 1997 Dodgers hit just 17 doubles, but smoked 31 home runs at the position. Todd Zeile got all but ten of the plate appearances for the team at the position for the year, hitting 17 doubles and 31 bombs. The ’02 Padres were just bad at the position, with Burroughs (again) and Phil Nevin doing most of the damage.


January 4th, 2012 on 12:15 pm
Well, the Fish solved their third base problem (assuming any kind of maturity on their old SS, which may be a reach for him, of course), didn’t they.
Not so much the Phillies. Not for the last time will I be bummed about not chasing Ramirez. Lord, Eric, the stats you just posted are horrid. Any way to bring Mike Schmidt outta retirement? He can’t be worse.
January 4th, 2012 on 12:57 pm
I’ll believe that Reyes and Ramirez can co-exist peacefully on the same side of an infield when I see it.
If not Schmidt, how bout Rolen and a back surgeon?
January 4th, 2012 on 2:12 pm
Yeah. The fans would love to see Scottie back. Oh man, would that be ugly. LOL
January 4th, 2012 on 4:48 pm
Polanco hasn’t always been this bad, has he? I seem to remember him being a doubles hitter. I’m *hoping* (although I realize probably not a good thing to count on) that his loss in doubles power last year was a result of the injuries. He does have a career ISO of .105, which would at least move him up one or two slots on the list.
Oh man…it is that bad. Ugh.
January 4th, 2012 on 5:19 pm
Polanco hit for way more power with the Phils in ’03 and ’04 (.159 and .143). He was terrible in 2006 with the Tigers (.069), then had three years in a row where he was at least above .100. Really bad with the Phils in 2010 (.088) and just hide-your-eyes bad in 2011 (.062). I’m guessing his power isn’t coming back.
January 4th, 2012 on 9:07 pm
RAJ has to have these numbers. He has to know this year is crucial. He can’t really be satisfied, can he?
January 4th, 2012 on 9:51 pm
I’m pretty sure he isn’t expecting a lot of power from Polanco this year. Last year was crucial too and it was a lot of Polanco at third. On the plus side, if you like fielding stats, they suggest Polanco was elite defensively at third in ’11.
January 5th, 2012 on 7:54 am
Worst 3B power = Most wins in baseball.
Not to be flip about it, but my reaction to the stats is “interesting, but so what?”. After Utley returned, they led the league in scoring and had among the fewest games of 3 runs or less.
Plus Polanco provides great defense, so if you replace him with a better hitter (who may cost much more and therefore limit other options), you better make sure you don’t give those runs back on the defensive side. Looking at you, ARam.
I’ve also salivated over ARam for years, but I’m afraid that ship has now sailed. Looking at WAR, Polanco has been better overall for the past 2 years, and the past 3. Ramirez has averaged 10 more games per year for the past 2, but 17 less per year for the past 3.
Not saying there may not be better options out there, or that I wouldn’t like to have better offense at third. Just that it’s not that clear to me how they would improve the team overall.
January 5th, 2012 on 10:55 am
I’m assuming the point you’re making is not that it doesn’t matter if Polanco is awful, but that Polanco isn’t awful or even bad. That his overall value is the combination of his offense and defensive contributions and defensive metrics show he was an elite defensive 3B in 2011. When you combine his offense and defense and compare him to other 3B he’s better than fine. He’s good.
It’s inarguable that there are many defensive metrics that show he was an elite defensive 3B in 2011. For example, among the 65 third baseman across both leagues with 200 innings, his UZR/150 is ninth-best. There are only 15 players in the NL that had a better dWAR.
Thinking about his future value, I do think we need to be careful about how much those defensive stats move around from year-to-year, though. For example, of the 65 3B with 200 innings for 2011, A-Rod had the best number for UZR/150. He was at 20.2 in 2011 after six straight years below zero at third base. On dWar, nobody in the NL had a better mark than Carlos Lee’s 2.1 (Mike Stanton was also at 2.1). He came into 2011 with a dWar less than zero for six straight seasons.
On ARam, there can be no argument about the WAR stats. Over the last three years, Polanco has put up a WAR of 2.5, 2.0 and 1.8 while Ramirez has been at 1.2, -1.0 and 3.6. I do think it’s relevant that ARam doubled him up last year and, while it’s impossible to argue that Polanco’s defensive stats for 2011 (and 2010 for that matter) are fantastic, I would guess that Ramirez will out-WAR Polanco overall in 2012.
January 5th, 2012 on 11:06 am
You’re right about the defensive stats, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Ramirez “out-WARed” Polanco in 2012.
But he will be paid $12M per year through his age 36 season, so (assuming the Phillies would have given him a similar deal) you start to wonder if the extra expense is worth any improvement.
January 5th, 2012 on 11:09 am
The main point was that Polanco is good, but a secondary point was that they had a leading offense in spite of getting little contribution from third.
January 5th, 2012 on 9:20 am
Fish get Zambrano; their 1-5 starters are looking pretty good. The NL East in 2012 is not the NL East of 2011, is it, especially if the Nats get Fielder? I wish I felt like the Phillies had done more than stay even, if losing Howard can be called staying even.
January 5th, 2012 on 9:27 am
Yep, and the NL East already had the 2nd best record in 2011, just behind the AL East.
As for staying even: full year of Pence, no Ibanez and .707 OPS, hopefully more of Utley/less of Valdez/Orr/MiniMart, better bench.
The Nats need to make up 21.5 games, Marlins 30. Not worried yet.
January 5th, 2012 on 10:59 am
Not worried yet either.
I think 2012 Utley better than 2011 Utley is another factor as well. I’d guess Mayberry will drop off in 2012, but if he doesn’t and plays more that’s a huge boost for the offense. If Thome can get on the field, that guy can really hit. Domonic Brown is the wild card and he has enormous offensive upside.
January 5th, 2012 on 11:17 am
I have to admit that I do not even think about Dom Brown anymore as a factor; I hope I am wrong. Howard’s production is the single factor that worries me most. His injury is on his back leg, his push off leg, the leg that makes the ball go a long way. I wonder if he will be back at all next year as a factor in the offense.
Personally, the Fish are the guys who pose the weirdest puzzle and biggest risk. Risk because of the talent they are laying in. Puzzle because of their knowingly assembling what may be the single most combustible club house in baseball. Ramirez, Reyes, Zambrano and Guillen on the same team may require them to invest in boxing gloves as well as batting gloves. Still… their starting pitching.. goodness.
January 5th, 2012 on 1:07 pm
I really don’t think that Howard will be as difficult to replace as you do DaMannse. He has averaged a WAR of 2.9 over the past five seasons, which is far from elite. Just as a point of reference, Polanco has an average WAR of 3.2 and Utley’s average is 5.7 (talk about elite!) Howard is slightly above league average as a first baseman right now, and that doesn’t even factor in his albatross of a contract.
Try not get too enthralled by the RBI. When you have Utley on base in front of you all of the time, you’re going to have a lot of those.
January 5th, 2012 on 2:02 pm
Interesting.
January 5th, 2012 on 5:07 pm
On replacing Howard’s offense at first, even if the Phillies can do it, I think there’s a big question about how they do it. For example, if we assume that Mayberry is going to be as good as he was last year, but with more plate appearances, I think it matters whether they need him to be playing at first or not. If they can produce offensively at first without using Mayberry, they’re obviously in a lot better position if they can produce at first but have to use him there.
January 5th, 2012 on 5:43 pm
I have seen nothing anywhere about how Thome is doing except that he will be working out to see how much first he CAN play. If he could play, his bat would likely take pressure off the rest of the lineup. If they can use him and Wigginton at first and leave Mayberry in left, maybe that is as good as it gets until Howard returns.
Until then, I am sure Martinez can hold down Howard’s spot.
January 6th, 2012 on 10:54 am
I will admit…if MiniMart is playing first base next year, then I believe it will be difficult to replace Howard’s production.