The Start Log for 2011 is done and you can view it here.
Two of my favorites from the Start Log:
- In 2011, the Phillies went 90-23 in games in which they scored more than two runs.
- In 2011, the Phils allowed 529 runs.
90-23 is a .796 winning percentage for the Phils in games where they scored more than two runs. They went 18-10 (.643) in games where they scored three runs. In 2008, 2009 and 2010, the Phillies went to the World Series twice and never were .500 in games in which they scored three runs. Overall in those three seasons they went 24-43 (.358) in the games in which they plated exactly three runs. They actually had a better record in the 18 games in 2011 in which they scored three runs than the 19 games in which they scored four. The Phils went 11-8 when they scored four runs in 2011.
NL teams other than the Phillies went 1069-576 (.650) in games in which they scored more than two runs. In the games in which they scored exactly three runs, the NL teams other than the Phils went 150-219 (.407) in 2011.
In 2011, the Phillies allowed 529 runs. That’s not a lot.
The last team to play 162 or more games in a regular season and allow 529 runs or less was the 1969 Baltimore Orioles– they allowed 517 runs in 162 games. Righty Jim Palmer (16-4 with a 2.34 ERA, a 1.08 ratio and a 154 ERA+) and lefty Mike Cuellar (23-11 with a 2.38 ERA, a 1.01 ratio and a 151 ERA+) led that rotation. Cuellar won the Cy Young award in the AL that year. Lefty Dave McNally won 20 games for Baltimore as well, going 20-7 with a 3.22 ERA, a 1.18 ratio, but with an ERA+ of just 112.
Notably, Halladay and Lee were almost inarguably better than Cuellar and whoever you think the second-best starter for Baltimore that year was. And ’11 Hamels was better than ’69 McNally.
Baltimore, however, had a fantastic bullpen that threw to a league-best 2.32 ERA and a league-best 1.09 ratio in a year when the average AL-pen pitched to a 3.50 ERA and a 1.39 ratio. The Phillies bullpen this year, as you may remember, was far from league-best (7th in the NL in ERA and tenth in ratio).
Several teams were on pace to allow less than 529 runs over 162 games in a season where they didn’t play 162 games. In 1981, the Astos allowed 331 runs in 110 games, which put them on pace to allow 487 over 162 games. The Yankees were on pace to allow 519 runs that year and the Dodgers on pace to allow 524.
In 1972, the Orioles allowed 430 runs in a 154 games, which put them on a pace to allow 452 runs. Oakland’s pace would have had them allowing 478 runs over 162 games.
Back in June I looked at the pace at which the Phils were allowing runs. You can read that post here.
In this article, Manuel points out that the Phillies offense was really good in the second half of the year, saying, “From the second half of the season on, we were either No. 1 or No. 2 in offense.” No argument here. From the start of the season to the end of June, the Phils were eighth in the NL in runs scored. From the start of July to the end of the regular season, they led the league in runs scored. From the start of June to the end of the regular season they were fourth in the NL in runs scored. Second in the league in runs scored after the All-Star break. More on that later.
Manuel says he likes the chances of Rollins returning in this article.
In this article Manuel says he thinks Thome can still play first base and suggests that Utley will hit third when healthy.
These articles about the Brewers, Phillies, Jimmy Rollins and Aramis Ramirez seem similar to me.
This article lists the Phils among the suitors for Gio Gonzalez. Sounds good to me, but I would advise against holding one’s breath. Gio Gonzalez and Gavin Floyd for Freddy Garcia in December, 2006, wasn’t a shining moment for the Phils.
This says the Phils are out on Ramirez.
This suggests that the Phils would be willing to include Domonic Brown in a Gio Gonzalez deal.

December 7th, 2011 on 11:07 am
Don’t know anything about Gonzalez; he was not on my Christmas list from the last post. Should I be excited about the prospect of his coming here?
December 7th, 2011 on 11:19 am
Gio Gonzalez is a really good 26-year-old left-handed starting pitcher who has gone 31-21 with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.31 ratio over 402 2/3 innings with Oakland over the last two years. He walks a lot of guys, but doesn’t allow a lot of hits and has good strikeout numbers.
He led the AL in walks last year (he actually led both leagues), allowing 91 in 202 innings.
He’s good. But the Phils already have some starting pitching. I was surprised to hear Domonic Brown’s name come up. I would miss Brown if he goes.
I don’t think he’s coming to Philadelphia. But I didn’t think Cliff Lee was either.
December 7th, 2011 on 11:28 am
Um, the Mets just traded Pagan to the Giants. Looks like the Giants will not bring Beltran back.
December 7th, 2011 on 11:31 am
Yeah, all the talk from Fox Sports about the Gonzalez to Phillies stuff making it a set up for us to trade Hamels makes me kind of queezy. I would not particularly miss Brown (SURPRISE! LOL) but Hamels I would miss (again, surprise!).
December 7th, 2011 on 11:55 am
Its funny about Gio Gonzalez, remember this history on him…notice some of those other names in this Wikipedia post on him…Funny how this group has moved around. And when they traded him back to White Sox for Freddy Garcia i was thinking…OK Freddy you better be good…this Gio kid could be for real…and I told my buddy to remember that name.
Here is some history, its funny to read looking back with what we know now:
(and oh yea…Thome hit 42 homers, 109 rbi’s and .288 BA the year after he left Philly)
He was drafted by the Chicago White Sox in the 1st round.
In 2005, he was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies along with Aaron Rowand and Daniel Haigwood for slugger Jim Thome. While with the Phillies, Baseball America rated Gonzalez the # 2 prospect in their farm system behind Cole Hamels in 2006.
In December 2006, Gio was traded back to the White Sox along with Gavin Floyd for Freddy Garcia. Gonzalez led the minor leagues with 185 strikeouts in 150 innings in 2007.
December 7th, 2011 on 11:58 am
And I don’t know where I stand on him and Hamels…if it did not take much sure, but otherwise, don’t give up the farm for him
December 7th, 2011 on 11:59 am
PS- I just read the bottom of the blog…did not see the note about our “shining moment” so clearly I agree on that one!
December 7th, 2011 on 12:22 pm
Cole Hamels feels like he should be untouchable. I don’t see what we have to gain by trading him. Especially if what we’re getting is a different starting pitcher.
I don’t see a need to add a major league SP at all, unless they’re actually going to dump Blanton (which I wouldn’t mind in the slightest).
December 7th, 2011 on 1:04 pm
I think Hamels is better than Gonzalez, but a lot more expensive. Still, I hope they hold onto him since I’m not the one that has to pay him. Gonzalez is good, though. I am going to be surprised if they trade Hamels.
December 7th, 2011 on 2:33 pm
Can we afford to pay 3 SP’s 20 mill each?
December 7th, 2011 on 2:59 pm
Teams with World Series aspirations do not trade quality players in their prime to lower salary.
If that was a consideration, they wouldn’t/shouldn’t have signed Cliff to begin with.
December 7th, 2011 on 3:06 pm
http://twitter.com/#!/DKnobler/status/144491558962610177
Says Phils are out on Gio. Never would have traded Hamels.
December 7th, 2011 on 5:10 pm
https://twitter.com/#!/Jim_Duquette/status/144537302457257985
says Phils and Rollins have agreed to terms.
December 7th, 2011 on 5:33 pm
Solesbury and Zolecki on Daily News say that no deal has been done.
December 7th, 2011 on 9:13 pm
Phillies web site says that a deal with Rollins “may be imanent”.
December 8th, 2011 on 8:17 am
The Fish apparently out of the Pujols sweepstakes, MLB reporting.
December 8th, 2011 on 10:23 am
Pujols to the Angels, confirmed, says Joh Heyman. Fish looking at Prince.
December 8th, 2011 on 10:45 am
Wow. I was thinking he was going back to STL. Nice to have him out of the league at least. Pretty sure that means St Louis won’t lead the NL in runs scored in 2012 like they did in 2011.
December 8th, 2011 on 11:25 am
Wow, Pujols to the Angels for 10yr/250Mil atleast. Thats a lotta dimp!
Also glad to see him out of the NL esp not ending up in Miami. I also hear Angels are snaggin CJ Wilson too for 5/75.
Back to the Phils,
December 8th, 2011 on 11:28 am
crap, sorry, tab and space got me again!
anyways, back to the Phils…
I was somewhat secretly hoping Madson was gonna accept arbitration. He would bet a monster salary, the bullpen would instantly become dangerous and he would hit the market next year without as many fish in the water. I guess he would take a hit not being the ‘closer’ but i mean, you cant take away his last season and who knows what happings in 2012. I know, its a homer perspective but KRod just did it…
Atleast this fella named Albert is outta the way now. that should free his agent up to see what Rollins will do. I’m hearing a wink/nudge agreement is in place but only on the radio. I cant wait to see the terms however.
December 8th, 2011 on 12:58 pm
Yeah, I would have been thrilled to see Madson accept arbitration. I don’t really think replacing Madson with Papelbon makes the Phils a lot better, just different.
I’m going to be really surprised now if the Phils don’t bring Rollins back.
December 8th, 2011 on 1:11 pm
No signing Pujols for third I guess. Oh well.
Latest rumor I heard is that Hanley Ramirez wants to be traded instead of playing third for the Marlins. Wouldn’t mind seeing him on the team at short.
December 8th, 2011 on 2:46 pm
I was hoping they would sign him, put him in the rotation and let him play third on the four days in-between starts. Failing that, Ramirez at short sounds good to me, too. Not too late to trade for Pujols.
December 8th, 2011 on 4:52 pm
Honestly, how do the Fish pay for all of these contracts? They’ve never had fans down there. Does a new park magically produce three million in attendance for the rest of the decade? They’re mighty lucky Big Al went to the Halos. Should be interesting.
I think Jimmy comes back. And even if he does, I just cannot believe Amaro is done. With Ibanez and Howard gone, these guys have a heck of a lot of runs and power to replace.
December 8th, 2011 on 4:58 pm
DM I was just reading about that on SI. Rather than waiting for the fans show up at the new location / new park, they’re showing that they’re serious about this whole winning thing by putting a team together and then selling tickets to go see them. It’s a risky plan, but it could work very well for them.
Keep in mind there’s a big difference between Miami and Ft. Lauterdale. It’s like the Phils moving to CBP from Camden.
December 8th, 2011 on 5:15 pm
And that is why, Jim, they’re doing what they’re doing and I’m not I guess. It’ll be interesting watching the games in their park just to count the crowd.
December 8th, 2011 on 9:23 pm
Apparently Laynce Nix deal is official. Yay. How many outfielders are we allowed to field at once? Perhaps the plan is to try leaving shortstop vacant and throw another outfielder out there.
December 8th, 2011 on 10:48 pm
A new take on the Howard Shift; a short left fielder.
December 9th, 2011 on 9:55 am
From what I understand of the Florida/Miami ballpark situation is that with the new stadium, their expenses drop dramatically. The lease that they had on the existing park was horrible (from their perspective) and they are saving in the neighborhood of $15-20 million a year moving into a fully publicly financed park. That is where the extra money is coming from.
(Begin sarcasm) I’m really excited about the Laynce Nix deal. It gives them a legitimate left-handed bat to go with Mayberry in Left and he is even flexible enough to be able to play first. Should lead to great things for the Phils.
December 9th, 2011 on 10:11 am
Kinda down on Nix, too. Let’s hope we don’t see too much of him. Again, he’s a one-sided hitter with a .296 career on-base percentage on his side that isn’t unusable. Forgetting Brown, I think you can make the case that Mayberry might be a better choice to play left against right-handed pitching. I’ll be curious to see what the Phils do with Nix — hopefully Mayberry has some early success against righties in 2012 or Brown just starts the year tearing up things again in the minors. And not doing that thing where he runs in circles around the ball in the outfield.
December 9th, 2011 on 12:01 pm
Do we think there is any chance Scott Podsednik gets healthy and can help the Phillies? Its just that they have so many OF guys and the guys that can play If are not that versatile…Thats why a guy like Cuddyer made sense because he could play 3rd, 1st and OF. Now we will have Mayberry and Thome splitting time at 1st until Howard is healthy, then Thome to the bench. And if Mayberry is doing ok, Nix will ride the pine with Francisco and Wiggington…
It just seems like so many OF that are not that versatile.
I guess Wigginton can play some 1b also…
It just seems like such a log jam and players won’t be able to get steady time and get into a groove…we saw last year how Mayberry did when he DID get consistent AB’s
And still the only guy that can play 3B is Polly and Valdez.
December 9th, 2011 on 12:58 pm
Wigginton is hopefully playing third when he gets on the field for the Phils, at least once Howard is healthy. If Thome can really play first, I think Wigginton/Thome could make a nice platoon there early in the season.
I’d love to be wrong, but I think it’s a bad sign for the Phils if you see Podsednik on the field. He’s slugged .371 over his last 2,758 plate appearances in the majors. At age 35 you have to wonder how big a weapon his speed can be. He has done a nice job of getting on base in his most recent stints in the bigs in 2009 and 2010, hitting .300 with a .347 on-base percentage.
On Mayberry/Nix, I will be interested to see if it’s a straight platoon in left to start the year or if Mayberry gets to play against righties.
December 9th, 2011 on 1:19 pm
Is it too early to start posting the current/probable 2012 roster? I’m getting lost with the 7 outfielders and 8 infielders (none of which are currently named Rollins)..
December 9th, 2011 on 1:58 pm
I don’t it’s too early. I can try to do that sometime soon.
Here’s my guess right now for the hitters on the roster to start the season:
Ruiz, Howard (hurt), Utley, SS (Rollins), Polanco, Mayberry, Victorino, Pence, Thome, Wigginton, Nix, Valdez, Schneider, Francisco
That’s 14. Howard on the DL makes 13.
That leaves off Martinez and Brown.
I think we have to think of Wigginton primarily as a backup corner IF. If you don’t count him as an OF, that leaves the Phils with five — Mayberry, Victorino, Pence, Nix and Francisco.
I think these pitchers are likely on the team to start the season if healthy:
Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Papelbon, Bastardo, Blanton, Kendrick, Worley, Stutes, Contreras.
That leaves two spots for relievers if they Phils carry 13 hitters. It would be nice if one of them were filled by a lefty, but it’s hard to feel real sure the Phils would start the year with Joe Savery or Jake Diekman as their second lefty.
December 9th, 2011 on 2:01 pm
The shortstop issue notwithstanding, I just cannot believe Amaro is done. I cannot believe that he will go into the year with the power outtage represented by not having either Ibanez or Howard around. And if Rollins leaves, the loss of offense and run production will even be worse. I cannot believe that a team built for winning now is completed by the additions to the lineup we have seen so far.
December 9th, 2011 on 2:19 pm
So say we sign Jimmy…and two journeyman relievers, this is potentially our team? Guess I will have to root extra hard this year.
One thing I would like to see is if Polly can be 100% healthy…I don’t hate on him like most of Phily…would I take Ramierez over him…most likely yea, but I still think he is a good player on a team that relies so heavily on the long ball
I AM excited to see how Thome does…I hope he can play some 1B and get some AB’s and not just a bench guy the entire year
December 9th, 2011 on 2:33 pm
I think the team as it now it will be significantly better offensively than it was last year, even if it gets nothing from Brown.
Ibanez was terrible last year. The Phils are likely to get better in left. A whole year of Pence means they’re better in right. A whole year of Utley means they’re better at second. Polanco will be better than he was last year or someone else will play there.
I think it’s likely Rollins is the SS and that he is worse offensively in 2012 than he was in 2011. They have to make up for Howard’s production at first until he comes back.
But I think they will — even without additions, I think they’ll be better offensively than they were in 2011.
December 9th, 2011 on 2:49 pm
Man, I sure hope you’re right.
December 9th, 2011 on 2:55 pm
Ibanez, 20 dingers, 84 ribbies in 144 games last year. As bad as he was, will the other guys this year be able to replace that and Howard? Like I said, man I hope you’re right.
December 9th, 2011 on 3:15 pm
Ibanez was awful. It would be a terrible idea, but if the Phils were to play Laynce Nix in left field everyday I think he would come close to matching Ibanez’s numbers from last year. I think it’s hard to project Mayberry going forward given that he’s got better numbers in the majors than he had in the minors, but if he continued to hit in 2012 the way he has in the majors 2009-11 and played every day, he would dwarf Ibanez’s 2011 numbers. I think Domonic Brown is the best player of the three, but it’s definitely hard to know what he might do next year and if it will help the Phillies at all.
How long Howard is going to be out is a critical question, of course, as well as whether he’s his old self when he does return. If they get little from the first base slot next year, I think they’ll have trouble offensively. But I don’t think that’s going to happen.
December 9th, 2011 on 3:17 pm
If Howard returns in May, I’m not worried about replacing his production. I believe last year was the first of many that we didn’t exit April with a losing record.
I’m a excited about a Mayberry/Nix left field? No. Do I think it can do better than Ibanez? Yes.
Utley’s due to have a much better year as well, or he ages faster than most dogs.
December 9th, 2011 on 3:24 pm
Ok. But a little nervous here.
December 9th, 2011 on 3:25 pm
It’s hard to know how much Mayberry’s career numbers so far matter, but so far his career numbers against right-handed pitching are better than Ibanez’s overall numbers for 2011. Ibanez hit 245/289/419. So far in his career, Mayberry has hit 236/317/445 against righties.
December 9th, 2011 on 3:35 pm
I also agree Utley is likely to be better in 2011 than 2012, but even if he just stays healthy and produces at the same level offensively, the Phils will be a lot better at the position just cause he got more at-bats.
So I guess the plus-side of giving at-bats to Martinez and Valdez is it leaves a lot of room for upward growth the following season. That duo combined to make 534 plate appearances for the Phils in 2011. They aren’t good offensive players.
In Martinez’s defense, the fact that he’s not a good offensive player didn’t hurt the Phils at 2B that much in 2011. Orr actually played a lot more at second than Martinez did, hitting 213/280/240 in 82 at-bats as a second baseman for the Phils in ’11. Valdez hit 246/289/307 in his 126 PA as a 2B. So a healthy Utley could help.
Martinez only got 30 PA as a 2B and hit 241/267/379.
December 9th, 2011 on 9:11 pm
Utley. Healthy. Please. Please. May it be so.
December 10th, 2011 on 4:40 pm
Furcal re-ups with the Cards. Jimmy may actually have no other place to go but Philly. Might even save us a few bucks, or even a year.
December 10th, 2011 on 5:56 pm
The Brewers have also signed a shortstop. Atlanta is the only team left besides the Phillies I think.