Comments on: Give the people what they want

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By: Leighton

Leighton — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 03:52:12 +0000

I like that Christmas list…and can see some of it landing in your stocking!

By: DaMannse

DaMannse — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 00:33:12 +0000

Buddy of mine says the Fish have offered 10 years, $250 million.

By: DaMannse

DaMannse — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 22:08:34 +0000

Ok, look. It’s Christmas, right? Time to ask Santa (who in this case looks suspiciously like an Hispanic man everyone keeps calling “Reuben”) for what we want? Well, here is my list, trying not to be pie-in-the-sky.
1. Ramirez is signed to play third. (If I am going for pie-in-the-sky, we sign Pujols for third, but I am trying to maintain some modicum of reality here.)
2. Jimmy signs for three with an option for one more, the money roughly equal to what he might get in a four-with-an-option-for-five.
3. Madsen accepts arbitration
4. A serious lefty for the pen is signed.
5. A mysteryleft fielder is located who can hit 30 dingers and drive in 100. (Ok, ok, so I depart from reality here)

PLEASE SANTA

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 21:20:48 +0000

Thanks for doing the math, Eric. If the Runs Scored vs. STL is indeed more than 3 SD’s worse, that is actually significant, small sample size or no. It’s still more scored than allowed, but it does point to a possible problem other than just bad luck.

On Madson: I don’t see him accepting. He knows he won’t close. He’ll get a decent 1 year contract (probably 8 mil, picking a number), he’ll set up for a year unless Papelbon gets hurt, and he’ll be looking for a new contract after the year without the benefit of coming off a great year closing.

By: egrissom

egrissom — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 20:56:02 +0000

I’d be thrilled if he accepts. I really don’t think it’s likely, though. If you’re looking for reasons he might, I would guess it would have to do with not thinking there’s not an opportunity to close for another team. Again, I don’t think it’s likely.

By: Leigthon

Leigthon — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 20:47:53 +0000

ok…so lets for a minute assume he accept…thoughts?
(I doubt he will…why would he? Unless they think next year market is better??)

By: DaMannse

DaMannse — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 20:32:42 +0000

Jayson Stark is tweeting that there is a lot of noise about Madsen accepting arbitration. Given Madsen’s agent, I suspect that is just what it is: noise.

By: egrissom

egrissom — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 20:27:56 +0000

I don’t think Madson will accept arbitration.

I agree that Lidge’s 1.40 ERA last year was nifty and he did help the Phils out in some big spots. He only threw 19 1/3 innings, though, and he walked way too many in the innings that he did pitch (13). I would be surprised if he’s back with the Phils.

Also, I took a quick look at Jim’s earlier question about standard deviations for the runs scored and allowed in the post-season. As he points out, there is just a tiny amount of data. I believe the answer is that the runs allowed against STL and scored against the Giants are within 1-2 SD, the runs scored against STL are just barely into -4 (worse) and the runs that the Phillies allowed against SF in 2010 are many, many SD better.