In 2011, for the second-straight year, the Phils were ousted from the post-season in a series where they scored more runs than the team they were playing. After outscoring the Giants 20-19 while losing the 2010 NLCS, the Phils outscored the Cardinals 21-19 while dropping that NLDS three games to two in 2011.
It sure seems like that should be pretty unusual, given that the object of the game is to score more runs than your opponent.
But it’s not. At least it hasn’t been in 2011. No matter who wins the World Series, it will be true that teams that scored fewer runs than their opponents in a given 2011 playoff series will have a better record than teams that scored more runs than their opponent. Of the six series that have been played so far in the 2011 post-season, the team that scored fewer runs has won four of them. Look:
| Year | Series | Winner | Runs | Loser | Runs |
| 2011 | ALCS | TEX | 39 | DET | 25 |
| 2011 | ALDS | DET | 17 | NYY | 28 |
| 2011 | ALDS | TEX | 16 | TBAY | 21 |
| 2011 | NLCS | STL | 43 | MIL | 26 |
| 2011 | NLDS | STL | 19 | PHI | 21 |
| 2011 | NLDS | MIL | 23 | ARI | 25 |
That’s nuts. The teams that scored more runs than their opponents overall in those series went 2-4. The Yankees outscored the Tigers by 11 runs while losing their five-game NLDS, thanks to a 9-3 win in game one and a 10-1 win in game four.
So maybe it happens all of the time? But it doesn’t. Usually the team that scores more runs just wins. Kinda like you would expect.
The Phils lost to the Giants in an NLCS series in 2010 where they scored more runs than San Francisco, but before that it hadn’t happened since 2004. Coming into the 2011 playoffs, teams that had scored fewer runs than their opponent in a post-season series since 2004 had gone 2-47 in those series. Before the Giants topped the Phils in the 2010 NLCS, the last team to lose a post-season series in which they had scored more runs than their opponent were the 2004 Yankees.
In 2010, the Phils lost to the Giants despite outscoring them:
| Year | Series | Winner | Runs | Loser | Runs |
| 2010 | WS | SF | 29 | TEX | 12 |
| 2010 | ALCS | TEX | 38 | NYY | 19 |
| 2010 | ALDS | TEX | 21 | TBAY | 13 |
| 2010 | ALDS | NYY | 17 | MIN | 7 |
| 2010 | NLCS | SF | 19 | PHI | 20 |
| 2010 | NLDS | PHI | 13 | CIN | 4 |
| 2010 | NLDS | SF | 11 | ATL | 9 |
After that you need to go back to 2004 to find a post-season series where the team that scored the most runs didn’t win.
| Year | Series | Winner | Runs | Loser | Runs |
| 2009 | WS | NYY | 32 | PHI | 27 |
| 2009 | ALCS | NYY | 33 | LAA | 19 |
| 2009 | ALDS | NYY | 15 | MIN | 6 |
| 2009 | ALDS | LAA | 16 | BOS | 7 |
| 2009 | NLCS | PHI | 35 | LAD | 16 |
| 2009 | NLDS | LAD | 13 | STL | 6 |
| 2009 | NLDS | PHI | 20 | COL | 15 |
| 2008 | WS | PHI | 24 | TBAY | 15 |
| 2008 | ALCS | TBAY | 43 | BOS | 28 |
| 2008 | ALDS | BOS | 18 | LAA | 13 |
| 2008 | ALDS | TBAY | 21 | CWS | 13 |
| 2008 | NLCS | PHI | 25 | LAD | 20 |
| 2008 | NLDS | LAD | 20 | CHI | 6 |
| 2008 | NLDS | PHI | 15 | MIL | 9 |
| 2007 | WS | BOS | 29 | COL | 10 |
| 2007 | ALCS | BOS | 51 | CLE | 32 |
| 2007 | ALDS | BOS | 19 | LAA | 4 |
| 2007 | ALDS | CLE | 24 | NYY | 16 |
| 2007 | NLCS | COL | 18 | ARI | 8 |
| 2007 | NLDS | ARI | 16 | CHI | 6 |
| 2007 | NLDS | COL | 16 | PHI | 8 |
| 2006 | WS | STL | 22 | DET | 11 |
| 2006 | ALCS | DET | 22 | OAK | 9 |
| 2006 | ALDS | DET | 22 | NYY | 14 |
| 2006 | ALDS | OAK | 16 | MIN | 7 |
| 2006 | NLCS | STL | 28 | NYM | 27 |
| 2006 | NLDS | NYM | 19 | LAD | 11 |
| 2006 | NLDS | STL | 14 | SDP | 6 |
| 2005 | WS | CWS | 20 | HOU | 14 |
| 2005 | ALCS | CWS | 23 | LAA | 11 |
| 2005 | ALDS | CWS | 24 | BOS | 9 |
| 2005 | ALDS | LAA | 25 | NYY | 20 |
| 2005 | NLCS | HOU | 22 | STL | 16 |
| 2005 | NLDS | STL | 21 | SD | 11 |
| 2005 | NLDS | HOU | 25 | ATL | 21 |
| 2004 | WS | BOS | 24 | STL | 12 |
| 2004 | ALCS | BOS | 41 | NYY | 45 |
| 2004 | ALDS | BOS | 25 | LAA | 12 |
| 2004 | ALDS | NYY | 21 | MIN | 17 |
| 2004 | NLCS | STL | 34 | HOU | 31 |
| 2004 | NLDS | STL | 22 | LAD | 12 |
| 2004 | NLDS | HOU | 36 | ATL | 21 |
Teams came close a couple of times, in 2006 the Cardinals scored one more run that the Mets in winning the NLCS four games to three, but from 2005 through 2009 there were 35 post-season series played and the team that scored the most runs won all 35 of them.
Since the start of the 2004 post-season and not including the ’11 World Series, teams scoring the most runs in a playoff series have gone 49-6. Four of the six series losses happened this year and two of the six losing teams were the Phillies.


October 25th, 2011 on 8:06 am
The parade example of this has to be the 1960 World Series that concluded with Mazeroski’s improbable walk off home run in game 7. The Yankees scored enough runs to win two Series but stunningly fell to the Bucs. It was glorious for us Yankee haters.
It has not been a whole lot of fun this year. I can’t bear to watch the wrong two teams in red.
October 25th, 2011 on 9:06 am
I think you might be right about that. Pirates won that World Series 10-9 on the walkoff homer in game seven. The three games that the Yankees won were all blowouts in which they outscored the Pirates 28-3, winning game two 16-3, game three 10-0 and game six 12-0. Overall for the series, the Yankees scored more than twice as many runs as the Pirates, outscoring Pittsburgh 55-27.
October 26th, 2011 on 10:51 pm
Brown and Worley to the Mets for Wright? I heard talk of it on 610 today at about 4:30. There is some notion – pure speculation that the Metsight keep Reyes but unload Wright for economics.
October 27th, 2011 on 9:17 am
I would be pretty thrilled if the Phillies got David Wright. But I don’t think we should be holding our breath given that he’s going to make $15 million in 2012. I also don’t think Mets fans would be real pleased about Wright being traded in the division.
October 27th, 2011 on 9:32 am
Brown and somebody-not-Worley, please. I really like the idea of having Worley for 10 years or so..
October 27th, 2011 on 1:01 pm
That’s pretty funny Jim. I was thinking the exact opposite. Worley reminds me too much of JA Happ, with less strikeouts of course. Look at Happ’s Houston numbers. However, if the Phillies trade Brown, they will regret it for years to come.
Eric – is the scoring more than the opponent thing before or after the appearance of the squirrel?
October 27th, 2011 on 1:47 pm
The squirrel thing is a really good point. Sometimes the explanations turn out to be so simple.
Just for the record, St Louis has outscored Texas 22-19 so far in the World Series. So if Texas wins game six by two runs or less they win the series with less runs than the Cards.
I don’t think either Brown or Worley are locks to put above average players from this point forward. I think Wright is and he doesn’t turn 29 until December. Still, he’s going to make about 30 times more than Brown in 2012 and Brown has enormous upside. I still think any deal for Wright is unlikely because of his salary and the fact the Mets fans would flip out if they traded Wright to the Phillies. Also, I don’t really think Brown is going to play a whole year at AAA in 2012 — I think the Phils are going to give him a big chance to contribute as part of the answer in left. We’ll see.
October 27th, 2011 on 4:28 pm
It wouldn’t be the first time the Mets traded popular players to the Phils. See: Dykstra, Lenny and McDowell, Roger. The Mets are hurting in a big way, and Wright will probably be past prime before they’re ready to compete. I’m sure if they could get both Brown and Worley, they’d do it.
I just have a problem with trading young pitching coming off a great Major League season.For much of the year, Worley was the club’s ERA leader, which is nothing short of phenomenal considering the other names in the rotation. Hard to get younger if you keep trading your young pitching, too.
Brown, OTOH, is an extra outfielder. Probably one with huge upside, mind you, but only Left is open, and Mayberry may well be able to do that himself. Pence and Victorino aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.
October 27th, 2011 on 10:53 pm
But admit it; Wright would look pretty good in red pinstripes and planted at third.
October 28th, 2011 on 10:47 am
I wouldn’t at all mind Wright, no. And CBP would do him some good.
October 28th, 2011 on 1:43 pm
In my mind, we already have a third baseman on the decline with back issues, but that’s just me. Wright would certainly be an upgrade, I just don’t know how realistic of one.
I’m also not so sure that Mayberry can actually man the position in LF by himself. He still has a huge platoon split, which is all the more reason to keep Brown around to take a majority of the at bats against right handed pitchers.
October 28th, 2011 on 4:11 pm
Mayberry is also about to turn 28 and has a .328 career on-base percentage in the majors to go with his career .328 on-base percentage in the minors. He was way better than I expected last year and I’m excited to see what he does in 2012. But I think it would be a mistake to count on him. I think the big question for the Phillies is if Brown is his left-handed platoon partner in left or if they have to go out and get one.
I think Wright would be an enormous upgrade over Polacno, despite his off-year in 2011. I don’t think he’s on the decline. He did have a stress fracture in his back last year, so I think he deserves a little slack that his numbers were off. Speaking of Mayberry, Wright isn’t old, either — he’s less than a year older than Mayberry. By one day, but still.
October 28th, 2011 on 5:20 pm
Realistic? No, it isn’t. But geezus it would be nice to see Wright there!
Once more, Brown will never be an everyday player in the Bigs. For any team. You heard it here first. If he is who everyone seems to think he is, he does NOT NEED a season at AAA to “learn” left field. If he actually does need to learn the position that the worst fielder on the team is given (aka, The Bull, etcetcetc), he will never, ever be an every day player. Mayberry is right now twice the player Brown will ever be. I know this is not the feelings of most of the folks here, but I have seen no evidence at all that he is a player. None.
I think Amaro will be looking for a left fielder sometime soon, if not this winter, then during the season before the trade deadline. Which kills me to say because I do like Mayberry.
November 1st, 2011 on 6:13 pm
Cardinals decline Furcal’s option.
November 2nd, 2011 on 8:43 am
I’d rather the team go after Reyes in the free agent market than trade for Wright. It has taken me a long time to warm up to the idea, but it makes sense in my mind. Reyes has played second in the past, so if Galvis is the second coming you have a bit more flexibility with Chase when his contract is up in two years. He’s younger (and better) than Jimmy. He’ll cost a lot, but I could see this working out.
The post on Furcal (and his .292 OBP) really got me to think about the idea again.
November 2nd, 2011 on 9:54 am
Gold Glove or no, I’ve had enough of Polanco, though. Seems like his back, groin, elbow, or all 3 are hurting when the games really count. Charlie’s left with the choice of putting out a hurt veteran, or a bench guy. And we know how Charlie chooses.
Somehow putting him on Short seems less of a liability. You don’t expect as much offense from Short as you do from Third. (Although you have to stop leading guys off when they stop producing offense.)
November 2nd, 2011 on 10:22 am
Reyes; incandescent talent, locker room cancer. Taking himself out of the last game of the season says it all.
November 2nd, 2011 on 11:32 am
Agreed that Reyes has been an issue in the past. I also think that the Mets have been a mess in the past. If he were coming to a team like the Phillies, Shane, Chase, et al would not put up with that crap. Just one person’s opinion.
November 2nd, 2011 on 11:36 am
So we want to replace a leader with a guy that needs to be led? Not a recipe for success.
November 2nd, 2011 on 12:05 pm
Still, for me the issue is that I think the Phillies would be willing to spend money to bring Rollins back that they would not spend to bring in another player. If the choice is spending the same money on Rollins and another guy you could get for the same investment, I think you should consider the other guy. If the choice is Rollins or not spending the money, I’d rather have Rollins.
I really don’t have a lot of hope for Galvis. Hope I’m wrong. I think Reyes and Wright are both too expensive for the Phils, but I’d be thrilled to have either of them.
I don’t think Mayberry can be the everyday left fielder (especially if he’s playing first). They gotta have someone out there. Too early to give up on Brown in my opinion. I agree he disappointed last year, but the combination of real cheap and huge upside seem like they mean you have to stick with him.
November 2nd, 2011 on 4:12 pm
Well, I guess this is why amaro makes a heck of a lot more money than I do. I am torn between replacing the left side of the team and signing rollins for nearly any amount for one last shot. I just do not know. I wish I thought that Brown had an upside, but I just do not see it. I see no upside at all. So I guess if I am the guy spending money, its for Madsen and for a serious left fielder. I really do not know what to do about Rollins. He just looks like he is in the process of breaking down, maybe a year or two behind Polly, but moving inexcorably in that direction.
And I am beginning to get that same feeling about Ruiz. man, I hope Amaro can find someone who is more than a place holder as a back up, someone who can take some games off Ruiz’ shoulder.
I sure would like to see the starting eight next year start more than a dozen games together. Doesn’t that probably mean a lot younger? Hell, I don’t know.
November 2nd, 2011 on 4:46 pm
I think there are two things people are losing sight of who want to blow this team up:
1) The team won the most games in the majors in 2011 – 102
2) They outscored their opponents by two runs in a five game series. If Cliff Lee had just held a 4-0 lead in Game 2, they sweep the NLDS and the sky may not be falling right now.
If Rollins can get a five year deal somewhere, then let him walk. Otherwise, he should be back in Philly. He is still a well above-average ML SS. The closer market is flooded, but Madsen is the only one that is reasonably young and doesn’t appear to be in decline phase. Oswalt seems to be the odd man out, but would still be nice to have on the team. They CAN afford it (if you actually look at the numbers for last year, they can add about $10M from last year’s salaries before hitting the luxury tax).
Time has given me some perspective on this team, and it isn’t as bad as it looks. I still wouldn’t mind having Reyes as he is both younger and better than Rollins, but will also be much more expensive. No matter what happens, there is no way that the Phillies go into 2012 with Galvis as their starting SS.
November 3rd, 2011 on 12:18 pm
I think we could add a #3 to Greg’s list that for the second time in two years the Phils lost in the post-season in a series where they scored more runs than their opponent to the team that eventually won the World Series.
If you want to improve the offense, I think it’s very unlikely the Phils bring in another player to be the primary guy at catcher, first, second, center or right. That leaves short, third and left. They have to pay Polanco next year anyway and Mayberry looks like he’s part of the answer in left.
I agree that Rollins is an above-average SS. I don’t think he’s a good offensive player, though. If the choice is Rollins back to play short or not spending that money on the offense I’d rather have Rollins. But I’d really rather have a good hitter that helps the offense more overall than Rollins does.
I also don’t feel sure we’re not going to see significant time for Galvis/Martinez at short next year. I think it would be a mistake, but I think some people would look at .278 between AA and AAA last year and his good glove and think Galvis is ready to help. Given that the Phils are likely to win a lot of regular season games, I also think it’s more important who’s playing shortstop at the end of the year than it is who’s planning short at the start of the year.
November 3rd, 2011 on 2:54 pm
Yeah, I don’t know that anyone really wants to blow this team up, but the left side is where any changes that are going to be made will be made. That’s three guys who may be different next year. At least one of them needs to be a serious offensive upgrade over 2011. It would be really nice if two of them are.
I am not as sanguine about things as Greg is. “If Cliff Lee had” is just one more in a long line of “ifs” that the Phillies have strung together in the post season in the last couple of years. “If Howard does not swing at a 3-0 pitch” is another. Regular season stats (since 2007 – I think – every year the number of wins have gone up) are not as happy a thing as post season decline (every year losing out earlier and earlier, not to mention that the last 5 post season series have sub-230 batting averages). Things are not just fine. The Braves and Nats are serious comers. And one could argue that 102 wins are not all that wonderful given the starters we had and the level of players we are supposed to have.
Blow it up? Nope. No way. But 2011 was no success. 2012 wants for consistent offense.
November 3rd, 2011 on 4:48 pm
I found it interesting that the Phils actually underperformed their pythagorean win total (by 2). What I want, which is almost the same as consistency, is some people who can stay on the field and produce at a high level, even in October. Part of the requirement is for them to not be 40.
November 3rd, 2011 on 5:16 pm
I resonate with Jim. Production in the post season, which to me is another way of saying “someone who does not choke when it is money time”. The Phillies starting eight, plus Cliff Lee, have done a lot of choking over the last three years. I had hoped Hunter Pence would be the antidote; so much for that. Is it the water at The Bank?
November 4th, 2011 on 8:41 pm
Jim Thome. One year. Left handed bat with power off the bench. Spectacular presence in the clubhouse. But can he catch?
November 5th, 2011 on 8:33 am
Interesting. Put Thome on first to start the year and party like it’s 2004?
November 6th, 2011 on 7:04 pm
Eric, this sucks. I do not know squat about how to run a blog, but anything you need to do for securing this site I am sure the rest of us are willing to accede to.
November 6th, 2011 on 7:44 pm
I think the Thome signing for $1.25 million is very good news given the Phils payed Ross Gload $1.6 million last year to hit .257 with no homers and eight RBI. It will be interesting to see what Thome can do at first, but I’m pretty sure the answer is not a lot. He can still hit, though. 269/387/552 over the last two years with 40 HR in 664 HR for Thome.
Great signing for the Phillies. Thome is going to stop hitting at some point, of course. Let’s just hope it’s not in 2012. I’ll be pretty pleased if Thome can just party like it’s 2011.