A 49-30 mark through the first 79 games of the season gives the Phils a .620 winning percentage and puts them on a pace to win 100 regular season games this year. Here’s how that pace and their record through 79 games compares to what they’ve done since 2008:
| Year | Wins | Record after 79 games |
| 2011 | 100 (pace) | 49-30 |
| 2010 | 97 | 42-37 |
| 2009 | 93 | 42-37 |
| 2008 | 92 | 43-36 |
But are the Phillies really better this year than they were any of the previous three? Yeah. I think they are. At least compared to the rest of the National League.
The table below shows, for this year and the three previous, the number of runs the Phillies have scored and allowed per game this season and how that compares to the rest of the NL (not including yesterday’s games):
| Year | R/G | NL average R/G |
PHI/NL AVG | A/G | NL AVG A/G | PHI/NL AVG | |
| 2011 | 4.05 | 4.09 | 0.990 (-1.0) | 3.25 | 4.15 | .783 (+21.7) | 20.7 |
| 2010 | 4.77 | 4.33 | 1.102 (+10.2) | 3.95 | 4.35 | .908 (+9.2) | 19.4 |
| 2009 | 5.06 | 4.43 | 1.142 (+14.2) | 4.38 | 4.49 | .976 (+2.4) | 16.6 |
| 2008 | 4.93 | 4.54 | 1.086 (+8.6) | 4.20 | 4.63 | .907 (+9.3) | 17.9 |
For example, in 2011, the Phillies have scored 4.05 runs per game and allowed 3.25 runs per game. The average NL team has scored 4.09 runs per game and allowed 4.15. 4.05 is about .990 of 4.09, so the Phils are scoring about .990 the runs per game as the average NL team. They are way better at preventing runs, though, allowing just 3.25 runs per game compared to 4.15 for the average NL team. 3.25 is about 21.7% lower than 4.15. If you combine the two numbers, -1 for the hitting and +21.7, you get the number in the far right column — 20.7 in this case.
And 20.7 is better than any of the results for the other three years.
Those numbers suggest that compared to the average NL teams for those seasons, the 2011 Phils are the best, followed by ’10, ’08 and ’09 in that order. That’s the same result you get if you use their Pythagorean winning percentage — ’11 is best, on pace for 96 wins, 95 wins for ’10, 93 for ’08 and 92 for ’09.
The 2009 team had the best offense and the worst pitching, while the ’08 team was a tiny bit better at preventing runs than the ’10 Phils, but not as good at scoring them. For all of the teams, the Phils have always been above average at both scoring and preventing runs over the past four years with the exception of the 2011 Phillies, who have scored fewer runs than average for the league.
They have made up for that with unbelievable pitching.
A National League team hasn’t allowed 3.25 runs per game for a season for a long time (and, of course, the ’11 Phillies haven’t done it yet). In the strike-shortened 1981 season, both the Dodgers (3.24) and Astros (3.01) allowed less than 3.25 runs per game over 110 games. In 1968, Bob Gibson threw to a 1.12 ERA over 304 2/3 innings and the Cardinals (2.91), Mets (3.06), Dodgers (3.14) and Giants (3.25) all allowed 3.25 runs per game or fewer.
In 1968, the pitching was so dominant that the average NL team allowed just 3.43 runs per game. So even Gibson’s Cardinals, who allowed 2.91 runs per game, allowed about 84.8% of the average runs per game for an NL team. The Phillies this year are allowing about 78.3% of the average runs per game.
Of the six teams listed above, the only one that has a lower mark compared to the rest of their league for that season is the 1981 Houston Astros. The Astros allowed 3.01 runs per game that season while the NL overall allowed 3.91 — so Houston was allowing about 77.0% of the runs per game as the average NL team.
But. While the Phillies pitching staff has been outstanding this year, there have been others that have been equally or more dominant in recent years.
Going back to 1968, there have been several teams that have allowed fewer than the 78.3% of the average runs per game the Phils have allowed this year without allowing 3.25 runs per game or less. They include the ’93 (76.8), ’97 (78.0) and ’98 (78.0) Braves and the 2003 Dodgers (74.5).
The 2003 Dodgers finished eight games above .500 and in second-place in the NL West. They didn’t even make the playoffs, beaten out for the Wild Card by the Marlins. The ’98 Braves won 106 games but lost to the Padres in the NLCS. In 1997 they 101 games and lost to the Fish in the NLCS. In 1993 they won 104 games and the NL West, but lost to the Phils in the NLCS.
The ’03 Dodgers had a pitiful offense, the worst in the league. All three of the Atlanta teams had a better offense relative to the rest of their league in that season than the Phils have had relative to the rest of the NL so far this year.
To end on a high note, the one World Series that Atlanta did manage to win in their pitching-fed run of the 90′s came in 1995. That year the Braves did have the best pitching in the league (81.0% of the average runs allowed per game), but also had a below average offense, which scored just 4.48 runs per game compared to a league average of 4.63.
June 28th, 2011 on 1:47 pm
So, what you’re saying is that even though they have the best record in baseball, they aren’t the worst team in baseball? Hard to believe when reading any Philadelphia sports columnist.
June 28th, 2011 on 1:48 pm
P.S. Madsen to the DL. Really? I think that leaves Baez as the only pitcher that was in the bullpen on opening day. It’s a good thing that the one thing they had at AAA was bullpen depth.
June 28th, 2011 on 1:59 pm
They kinda seem like they’re doing okay to me.
I’m with you on both being surprised about Madson and concerned about the bullpen. Baez isn’t good and hasn’t been for a while. The Phils need Madson. Baez, Bastardo, Carpenter, Herndon, Mathieson, Stutes and Juan Perez. That’s going to take the Phillies all the way? With Worley and Kendrick in the rotation?
Great numbers for Carpenter at Triple-A at least, where he’s allowed one run in his last 17 1/3 innings and struck out 24.
June 28th, 2011 on 3:48 pm
My hunch is that everyone knows that the Phillies are good, good enough to get to the post season. I think that eveyone sees the W/L record and gets that this team is as close to a sure thing for the post season as the baseball gods allow.
Just as surely, everyone knows that they will be meeting teams in the post season that also have excellent pitching. This is an offense that is showing itself to be easily muzzled by even average pitchers, much less the more formidable arms of the other post season teams. In a short series, that feature of this team places this team at a real risk of elimination; one wonders about having to face a wild card Braves’ team that has very respectable pitching, for example. It is no hard thing to imagine the Phillies not surviving that confrontation especially after this past weekend series where they scored but 5 runs in 3 games. Regardless of the two wins accomplished during those same three days, it is clear that the offense makes this team vulnerable in a short series.
Given that, I think the angst of the Philly voices have more to do with looking ahead to those short series at the end of the year. Regardless of how good Halliday, Lee, and Hamels are, only one of them has ever been perfect, and then only once. It would be a far better TEAM if the offense would think that 4 runs is not to be a rare experience. There is little question that this team will very vulnerable in the post season. Been there. done that. Got the T-shirt. Unfortunately, they do not make bumper stickers unless one wins it all. As they are now, I doubt Las Vegas makes them the fav to win it all. With a better offense, it would be a no brainer.
June 28th, 2011 on 4:28 pm
They’re 19 games above .500 and it isn’t the All-Star break yet. That’s not so bad. The current makeup of the team doesn’t make them look like the favorites to win anything, but even if they went into the post-season with this roster they would have a chance. The thing that’s a little bit frustrating is that it seems like there are places where the offense could be improved by adding even an average hitter. We’ll see what the Phils do in the second half, but I hope they add a hitter. I think they will and maybe one guy to pitch out of the pen who’s old enough to drive.
June 28th, 2011 on 4:51 pm
I hear you. And I sure agree about that bat; that person needn’t be a super star, just a bat that reresents a reasonable threat.. probably from the right side to hit behind Howard (the coventional wisdom). Aside from Gload, the bench does not worry anyone, that is for sure. And Gload cannot run for himself yet.
Do you see any likely candidates for such a move?
June 28th, 2011 on 5:13 pm
I don’t know anything. If I had to guess, my list would include Ryan Ludwick, Michael Cuddyer, Josh Willingham, Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano.
June 28th, 2011 on 6:33 pm
Willingham is the name I have heard from other soures. He has achilles problems, I think. But could take a corner.
June 29th, 2011 on 8:56 am
Willingham is on the DL. Soriano and Lee have horrible contracts. I do like the idea of Cuddyer, as he is an above average bat that can play a lot of positions and is only signed through this season. Ludwick reminds me too much of Maycisco.
In other words, I don’t know what’s out there, but it seems like they need to do something. As long as RAJ doesn’t make a move just for the sake of making a move, I’ll be happy.
June 29th, 2011 on 9:54 am
I’m not sure it can get get that much worse at the Ibanez/Francisco slots by just making a move for the sake of making a move. Conor Jackson? Jeff Francoeur? Matt Diaz? Ryan Spilborghs? I’d take any of them gladly (although maybe a little less glad about Conor Jackson than the others).