Is there any argument to be made that Francisco actually has more power than Ibanez or Utley? Or Werth?
Well, not if you look at their career numbers. The table below shows, for each of the four, their isolated power calculated in two different ways, the percentage of their hits that have gone for extra-bases and the percentage of their plate appearances in which they have delivered an extra-base hit. The first isolated power column is just career slugging minus career batting average. The second isolated power column uses the formula (2B + 3B + (HR*3))/AB (which treats doubles and triples the same).
| ISO (SLG-BA) | ISO (formula) | % of H XBH | % of PA XBH | |
| Ibanez | .192 | .185 | 37.3 | 9.5 |
| Utley | .221 | .213 | 40.4 | 10.2 |
| Francisco | .183 | .181 | 41.7 | 9.8 |
| Werth | .209 | .204 | 39.9 | 9.3 |
So no, there’s not much of a case for Francisco as a hitter with more power than any of those guys over their careers. He has seen a higher percentage of his hits go for extra-bases than the others in the group, but lags behind everyone pretty much everywhere else except that the percentage of his plate appearances in which he delivered an extra-base hit is higher than Werth or Ibanez.
In trying to make sense of the numbers above, it’s important to understand that the extra-base hits delivered by Francisco aren’t as good as the extra-base hits delivered by the other three players. The extra-base hits by the other three guys, on average, went for more bases. Here’s the career rates of total bases for extra-base hits for the four:
| TB per XBH | |
| Werth | 2.93 |
| Utley | 2.86 |
| Ibanez | 2.82 |
| Francisco | 2.66 |
There’s a different story, though, if you look at the numbers from last year. Unfortunately, that might say more about what was wrong with Ibanez and Utley in 2010 than what it does about what was right with Francisco. There’s no case to be made that Francisco has more power than Werth, so he’s dropped from the table below, which now includes the numbers for Ibanez, Utley and Francisco from 2010 and Francisco for his career.
| ISO (SLG-BA) | ISO (formula) | % of H XBH | % of PA XBH | |
| Ibanez ’10 | .160 | .169 | 37.7 | 9.1 |
| Utley ’10 | .165 | .170 | 32.5 | 7.4 |
| Francisco ’10 | .173 | .173 | 39.6 | 9.6 |
| Francisco Career | .183 | .181 | 41.7 | 9.8 |
So that might be good for Francisco, if his goal is to have about the same power as Ibanez or Utley, but it’s real bad news for the Phils given how far off the power numbers were for Ibanez and Utley in 2010 compared to the rest of their careers. Francisco’s numbers were off his career levels, but still good enough to top both Ibanez and Utley.
The Phillies claimed right-handed pitcher Brian Schlitter and designated Andrew Carpenter for assignment. Schlitter turns 26 in December and threw eight innings for the Cubs in 2010 in his first major league action. In 190 innings in the minor leagues, Schlitter has walked 75. It’s a devastating blow to the theory that Amaro’s plan for world domination is all about preventing walks. Carpenter made five appearances with the Phillies over the past three seasons and was hit hard in 9 2/3 innings. He threw to a 4.05 ERA with a 1.36 ratio in 27 starts at Triple-A in 2010.
This says that John Mayberry will spend some time at first base this spring and Wilson Valdez some time in the outfield.
This says that the Phillies are willing to offer pitcher John Maine a minor league deal and suggests that Maine will decide what he wants to do in the next couple of days.
This says that Bastardo has still not thrown off a mound yet and now has been dealing with an illness as well as elbow issues from this winter.


February 17th, 2011 on 2:30 pm
I don’t think being “no worse than Ibanez” is a terribly positive goal or one that will let you keep a job for while. I would hope that applies to Ibanez as well.
It’s hard to know what to make of the Utley numbers.. if it’s true he was playing poorly through injuries, well, I’d just as soon let him not play at all. It’s better for his career numbers too.
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I thought I saw Maine was picked up by the Rockies?
Not looking good for Bastardo being a lefty out of the pen. We know Romero is going to walk the one batter he faces. Who else is left?
February 17th, 2011 on 2:48 pm
I’d still guess Bastardo as the second lefty in the pen at this point. Not a lot of other choices. Dan Meyer? Zagurski?
Looks like you’re right about Maine to the Rockies.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=6132008&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines
I agree that having as much power as Ibanez or Utley when they aren’t hitting well isn’t a good goal for Francisco.
February 17th, 2011 on 3:29 pm
On Ibanez: David Murphy in yesterday’s Daily News said that while Ibanez’s first half last year was terrible (.243/.724) due to recovering from injuries and abdominal surgery, after the All Star break Raul hit .309, with an .869 OPS and nine home runs. That seems to me to support the theory that Ibanez’s loss of off season training preceding the 2010 season was the big reason why he did not fare well before the break. After the break, he looked more like his old self, but he was still not what he had been the rest of his career. The theory continues that since he has just had a healthy off season in which he put himself through his usual rigorous preparations, that he will bounce back and be significantly better than he was even in the second half of last year.
Given Ibanez’s pride and history, I do think that he is not nearly the question mark that we have in other places we have talked about on this blog. Add to that the fact that this is a contract year for him, and that he has no plans to quit this game yet, I think he will be a serious force for this team in 2011. I am not worried about left field at all.
February 17th, 2011 on 4:56 pm
For me, the combination of his age, he turns 39 in June, plus the weak numbers last year is enough to have me worried about Ibanez. I agree that the second half was very encouraging, but I think there’s cause for concern, too. Also, it doesn’t seem likely that he’s getting a lot better defensively as he gets older, and he wasn’t real good to start with.
February 17th, 2011 on 6:56 pm
Yeah, I hear you. The age thing is always a possible issue in the decline of skills. I’m just hoping that he has this one more year both healthy and fully trained.