Comments on: Record tables

By: egrissom

egrissom — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 18:09:11 +0000

That’s what the next post is about, but the bottom line is that I don’t know. If you have a great rotation and a mediocre pen, it sure seems like there should be more difference for the starters. Surely the great W/L mark for the bullpen is about how good the offense was, but I would still have expected a bigger difference for the SP. A fluke seems like a good guess, with an assist to small numbers (just 44 decisions for the pen) being involved.

By: Jim

Jim — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 14:15:38 +0000

So I keep looking at that .109 difference between Phil SP and rest of NL, and that .109 difference between Phil bullpen and rest of NL. What does that mean, exactly? That we actually had a great bullpen, at least as good comparatively as our starters? Or just that our bullpen benefited from many late inning rallies?

By: egrissom

egrissom — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 16:50:01 +0000

Doesn’t take much time to figure out the bullpen records by SP if you know the team record by SP and the pitcher’s W/L record as a SP. I would say it’s hugely unlikely the Phils will have more than one 20-game winner in 2011. I think the harder question is what you would take if they set the over/under on 20-game winners for the season at 0.5. On the other hand, it’s not impossible — Halladay and Lee both won 20 (Halladay 20, Lee 22) in 2008. Still, I would guess one if I had to guess.

By: DaMannse

DaMannse — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 22:45:15 +0000

Really interesting, Jim/Eric. I had no idea.

By: Tweets that mention Philliesflow.com » Blog Archive » Record tables -- Topsy.com

Tweets that mention Philliesflow.com » Blog Archive » Record tables -- Topsy.com — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 22:32:20 +0000

[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Phillies Buzz, Philliesflow. Philliesflow said: Record tables: Here’s the bullpen record by starting pitcher for the Phils for 2010: Pitcher Team Record in Star… http://bit.ly/hphFRV [...]

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 21:55:57 +0000

Wow. Thanks for that fast turnaround, Eric. (Maybe you had started this earlier before I mentioned it?)

That % of starts with a decision is exactly what I was talking about. If you have 35 starts and get a decision on them in 70%, that’s 24 (and a half) decisions. You’d need to go 20-4 or better to be a 20-game winner in those conditions. If Halladay puts up 20, and the rest of the horsemen put up 17 or better, it should be a fantastic year.