Here’s the bullpen record by starting pitcher for the Phils for 2010:
| Pitcher | Team Record in Starts | W-L as SP | % of starts with decision | Bullpen record in starts |
| Halladay | 22-11 | 21-10 | 93.9 | 1-1 |
| Hamels | 18-15 | 12-11 | 69.7 | 6-4 |
| Kendrick | 17-14 | 11-10 | 67.7 | 6-4 |
| Blanton | 17-11 | 9-6 | 53.6 | 8-5 |
| Moyer | 9-10 | 9-9 | 94.7 | 0-1 |
| Oswalt | 10-2 | 7-1 | 66.6 | 3-1 |
| Happ | 2-1 | 1-0 | 33.3 | 1-1 |
| Worley | 1-1 | 0-1 | 50.0 | 1-0 |
| Figueroa | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0.00 | 1-0 |
| Total | 97-65 | 70-48 | 72.8 | 27-17 |
The bullpen had a total of three decisions in the 52 games started by Halladay or Moyer, but 13 in the 18 games started by Blanton.
Halladay pitched well enough to win in the games he didn’t get a decision, too. On July 10, Halladay threw nine shutout innings against the Reds, but the Phillies didn’t score until the eleventh when a double by Ruiz and a walkoff single by Rollins gave them a 1-0 win. Halladay wasn’t as dominant in his other no-decision in 2010. On May 12, he allowed three runs over 6 1/3 innings against Colorado. That game was also decided in extra innings — this time when Miguel Olivo homered off of Chad Durbin in the bottom of the tenth to give the Rockies a 4-3 win (it was Olivo’s fifth hit of the game).
Moyer had a decision in each of his first 18 starts on the season. His 19th start came on July 20 and he went just one scoreless inning before leaving the game with a strained elbow. Carpenter and Baez combined to allow six runs over the next four innings and the Phils lost the game 7-1.
Overall for the season in the NL in 2010, the teams that weren’t the Phillies saw their starter get a decision in 70.5% of their starts. As you know, the Phillies had the best winning percentage in the NL last year. Here’s how the difference in winning percentage breaks down between the starting pitchers and the bullpen:
| Winning percentage | |
| PHI SP | .593 |
| All NL SP | .491 |
| NL SP other than PHI | .484 |
| PHI Pen | .614 |
| All NL Pen | .541 |
| NL Pen other than PHI | .505 |
The Phillies starting pitchers went 70-48 for a .593 winning percentage. The starting pitchers for the other teams in the league that weren’t the Phillies went 829-884, a .484 winning percentage. So the winning percentage for the starters was .109 higher than the winning percentage for the teams in the league other than the Phils. The winning percentage for the bullpen was also .109 higher. The pen went 27-17 for a .614 winning percentage. The bullpens of every team in the league other than the Phils combined to go 362-355, a .505 winning percentage. .614 minus .505 is .109.
January 18th, 2011 on 4:55 pm
Wow. Thanks for that fast turnaround, Eric. (Maybe you had started this earlier before I mentioned it?)
That % of starts with a decision is exactly what I was talking about. If you have 35 starts and get a decision on them in 70%, that’s 24 (and a half) decisions. You’d need to go 20-4 or better to be a 20-game winner in those conditions. If Halladay puts up 20, and the rest of the horsemen put up 17 or better, it should be a fantastic year.
January 18th, 2011 on 5:45 pm
Really interesting, Jim/Eric. I had no idea.
January 19th, 2011 on 11:50 am
Doesn’t take much time to figure out the bullpen records by SP if you know the team record by SP and the pitcher’s W/L record as a SP. I would say it’s hugely unlikely the Phils will have more than one 20-game winner in 2011. I think the harder question is what you would take if they set the over/under on 20-game winners for the season at 0.5. On the other hand, it’s not impossible — Halladay and Lee both won 20 (Halladay 20, Lee 22) in 2008. Still, I would guess one if I had to guess.
January 20th, 2011 on 9:15 am
So I keep looking at that .109 difference between Phil SP and rest of NL, and that .109 difference between Phil bullpen and rest of NL. What does that mean, exactly? That we actually had a great bullpen, at least as good comparatively as our starters? Or just that our bullpen benefited from many late inning rallies?
January 20th, 2011 on 1:09 pm
That’s what the next post is about, but the bottom line is that I don’t know. If you have a great rotation and a mediocre pen, it sure seems like there should be more difference for the starters. Surely the great W/L mark for the bullpen is about how good the offense was, but I would still have expected a bigger difference for the SP. A fluke seems like a good guess, with an assist to small numbers (just 44 decisions for the pen) being involved.