Turns out that if you want to win games without scoring many runs, it helps a lot to have some great pitchers.
The start log for 2010 is done. One of the things it shows is that the Phillies won 13 games in 2010 when they scored less than three runs. That’s more games than the Phils won when scoring less than three runs in 2007 (0), 2008 (5) and 2009 (4) combined and the most games they’ve won in a season when scoring less than three runs since 1982. The Phils won 16 in 1982 in games where they scored less than three runs — if you know how to get Steve Carlton back to win 23 games and a Cy Young, I wouldn’t dawdle about letting someone in the front office know.
Scoring was down this year and 13 wins in games in which your team scored less than three runs wasn’t even enough to lead the league. The Dodgers won 14.
Still, if you can win 13 times when you score two runs or one run, it sure helps your chances. And the guys who were on the hill in the those games the Phillies won are probably the ones you would guess: Halladay five, Hamels five, Oswalt two and Moyer one.
Sadly for the Phils, some guys got a whole lot more chances to pitch in games where the team didn’t score a lot of runs than they should have.
| Pitcher | Starts in which the Phils scored < 3 |
Total starts |
% of starts the Phils scored < 3 |
Team W in starts where Phils scored < 3 |
Team L in starts where Phils scored < 3 |
WPCT |
| Halladay | 11 | 33 | 33.3 | 5 | 6 | .455 |
| Hamels | 14 | 33 | 42.4 | 5 | 9 | .357 |
| Moyer | 9 | 19 | 47.4 | 1 | 8 | .111 |
| Kendrick | 7 | 31 | 22.6 | 0 | 7 | .000 |
| Blanton | 5 | 28 | 17.9 | 0 | 5 | .000 |
| Oswalt | 4 | 12 | 33.3 | 2 | 2 | .500 |
| Worley | 1 | 2 | 50.0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| Total | 51 | 158 | 32.3 | 13 | 38 | .255 |
The Phils scored less than three runs in 51 of 162 games (they scored at least three in the four games started by Happ or Figueroa). Halladay or Hamels started 25 of those 51 and the Phils went 10-15 in those games. In the other 26, they went 3-23. In the 22 games started by Moyer, Kendrick, Blanton or Worley in which they scored less than three runs, they went 1-21.
They played 29 games when they scored less than three runs and Halladay, Hamels or Oswalt started. 12-17 in those games, for a .414 winning percentage. That .414 winning percentage is better than the overall winning percentage for the season for four MLB teams last year — the Orioles, Mariners, Pirates and Diamondbacks (the Royals played to a .414 winning percentage).
Finally, the Phils sure failed to put up runs a lot of the time when Moyer or Hamels started in 2010. That pair combined to make 52 starts and in 23 of them, about 44.2%, the Phillies scored less than three runs.
Jamie Moyer will have Tommy John surgery, but may not retire.
Jayson Werth declined arbitration.


December 1st, 2010 on 9:48 am
Those numbers are pretty impressive for the big three when no runs are scoring. I especially like that they had better winning percentage than four teams. Fairly amazing when you think about it.
Of course, it would be really nice if they just scored some more damn runs last year.
Time for the sarcastic portion of the comment: “I can’t believe Werth declined arbitration. I thought for sure he’d take the 1-year contract to say in Philadelphia.”
December 1st, 2010 on 10:26 am
I agree about the big three. 12-17 in games when you score < 3 runs is pretty fantastic and you can't do it without some great pitching. And we know the Phils didn't have a good bullpen.
I share your lack of surprise about Werth and declining arbitration. I still believe Jayson Stark when he says the Red Sox are the favorites to sign him.
December 1st, 2010 on 5:00 pm
It is disorienting to me that at the start of last year we were talking about the most feared line up in the NL. Now we are preparing to watch a year of baseball where we are going to be scratching out wins with few runs? It reminds me of the old Dodgers teams that featured Koufax and Drysdale. Of course, they had Maury Wills to steal bases and drive everyone crazy in the other teams’ infields. With the loss of our first base coach, one wonders of the running game will be there to augment the great (dear god may it be so) starting pitching.
Small ball, here we come? Can we actually win this way?
The Braves scare the bejeesus outta me.
December 2nd, 2010 on 9:16 am
I don’t feel real good about their chances to win this way. I think they can make the playoffs and they have a enough great players to make a playoff run that’s good enough to win it all, but I would feel a lot better if there weren’t so many worries offensively and in the bullpen.
On the other hand, I think it’s important to remember that Oswalt only made 12 starts last year. If the Phils really do go into ’11 with Halladay/Hamels/Oswalt and everyone stays healthy, that presumably means 20 or so more starts for Oswalt and 20 fewer by the Kendricks and Worleys of the world. That would help a whole lot.
Again, I’d still feel better with some more offense and a pumped up pen.
December 2nd, 2010 on 1:43 pm
If someone is looking at expected run differentials based on pitching, and not thinking that it’s approximately 60 feet, 7 inches from home play to the right field foul pole, then we could be in for an unfortunately interesting 2011 season. What makes Philly baseball exciting recently is that there were a lot of guys capable of hitting line drives or routine fly balls that happen to skip over the fence. The opposite of that is Met baseball, in a field roughly the size of the Grand Canyon.
December 2nd, 2010 on 5:04 pm
I am excited about having H2O for the whole year. That we have Oswalt picking up the ball every fifth game instead of Moyer, Knedrick, or Blanton HAS to be good for us. It is this reaity that makes the possible loss of Werth acceptible, or at least possible. (Though Crossing Broad today quotes Amaro as saying that the Phillies have a reasonable chance to sign Werth.)
I am no longer sure about the “greatness” of all of those players. At one time, I thought that Rollins, Utley, and Howard were serious prospects for eventual Hall of Fame status (HOF status is my definition of “greatness”). I even invested a hell of a lot of money in an autographed Ryan Howard bat, in part, because of that. But I have to say that right now the greatness of all three needs to be proved. This past year for Howard, and the past couple of years for the other two, make such proof necessary.
I continue to say that the “Big Three” for the Phillies is not H2O, but is instead Rollins, Utley, and Howard. To these three stars have the Phillies hitched all of their hopes and dreams. If they continue to be the players of last year or the past two years, this team will not only NOT get to the World Series in 2011 without Werth, they will not even make the post season. I think the Braves will arrive this year. We are in real trouble unless my Big Three are not REAL stars, not just faded memories.
December 2nd, 2010 on 7:22 pm
I wouldn’t throw your Ryan Howard autographed bat away yet. I think he has some good years left. I do think he’s going to have trouble with the Hall of Fame. Given that he can’t play defense, he’s going to need to put up a whole bunch of home runs — that’s going to be a challenge given that he didn’t get 400 plate appearances in a season until he was 26.
December 3rd, 2010 on 9:41 am
I agree with DM – the Braves will put up a tough fight this year. I hope Ruben is paying attention, and not taking the NL East for granted.
I am starting to wonder what Plan B is if the offensive Big 3 (especially Rollins) don’t get it going in 2011. Seems like a long time since he won his MVP.
December 3rd, 2010 on 7:27 pm
Yeah. Seems like an awful long time.
December 5th, 2010 on 5:13 pm
Werth to the Nats? Really?
7yrs/126 mill is what is being reported.
I must say, of all the teams I would have thought be able to sign Werth, I did not have Washington anywhere near the top or upper half for that matter.
I gotta ask, how will he be recieved once he steps on the field for the first time at the Bank?
December 5th, 2010 on 6:48 pm
Jaysen Werth just signed with the Nationals. 7 years, $126 million. If he had signed with the Red Sox or someone in it to win it, I would respect that. This? He just signed for the money. How disappointing. May he lose for the rest of his loser life.
December 5th, 2010 on 6:49 pm
I hope the right field fans gut him like the tuna he is.
December 5th, 2010 on 7:09 pm
This says that the Phils won’t get Washington’s best pick in the first round, because it’s too high for a compensation pick, and that the Phils will get a supplemental pick.
Ew.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Whoa-Jayson-Werth-signs-with-Nationals-for-7-ye?urn=mlb-292024
December 5th, 2010 on 8:25 pm
We do not get the first rounder? ARGH.
December 6th, 2010 on 9:05 am
Well. Good to know we won’t have to ever face him the playoffs anyway.
December 6th, 2010 on 9:15 am
It’s kind of tough to make the argument that it’s all about winning if you pick the Nats over the Phillies or Red Sox. Having an atrocious starting rotation is going to make it pretty tough to win, no matter how good your right field is.
December 6th, 2010 on 9:38 am
I must say, I threw up a little in my mouth when I heard the news.
December 6th, 2010 on 1:04 pm
I am reading about Phillies’ interest in Francoer (sp?). Are there decent right handed bats out there anywhere to hit behind Howard?
December 6th, 2010 on 1:24 pm
not as free agents. There is always the possibility of a trade as Amaro has been known to surprise us on that front.
December 6th, 2010 on 2:33 pm
Ok, snap poll. Who will be the Phils starting RF in 2011?
A) Crawford
B) Franceour
C) Brown-cisco
I expect C.
December 6th, 2010 on 3:48 pm
“A” no chance whatsoever. “C” is the obvious. Which leaves “B”. Really? How about “D”: a trade. But for whom. And who goes?
December 6th, 2010 on 4:07 pm
I think Francisco/Brown is the winner in a landslide if those are the choices. Hopefully Amaro comes up with the D option. Francoeur/Matt Diaz isn’t good enough. Sadly, I don’t think Brown/Francisco is, either. Third, short, right and maybe left look like the places where the Phils can help their offense. I’m not sure how they are going to get it done in any of those places. Hopefully Amaro is out there looking for some magic as we speak.
December 6th, 2010 on 5:08 pm
Heyman tweets that Phils are looking at Cody Ross and Aaron Rowand for RF.
December 7th, 2010 on 9:22 am
Cody Ross makes me throw up a little in my mouth too. Ugh.
I really don’t think there is any chance to get Crawford. Even if by some miracle they can move Ibanez, Crawford is going to be looking for a bigger contract than Werth got, and I can’t see the Phillies doing that.
Based on the outfielders currently on the roster, my guess is the RF for the first few weeks/months is Glo-cisco with Brown the every day RF in Lehigh Valley.
December 7th, 2010 on 9:39 am
I’d love to see Gload get more at-bats. I really don’t think he can play outfield on a regular basis, though. I don’t think he will. Francisco seems like he’s sure to get a lot more at-bats next year. Beyond that, I don’t know what might happen.
December 7th, 2010 on 9:40 am
Unless Dom has a terrible spring, he won’t be back in AAA IMO. He’ll be 4th outfielder on big league club.
Now.. if Phils do bring in help, then one of {Gload, Francisco, Brown} is a spare part that should be traded or demoted.
You should get that nausea problem looked at. Cody Ross, at least, has proven he can hit routine fly balls that fly over the CBP fence, like a good Phillie
Crawford is young(er). Phils could make a play. Though I doubt they’d offer more than 5 yrs. Depends on whether he wants to chase the money or win a ring. Yankees said to be in play, but they’d be doing it to make Swisher or Gardner available in trade. Have a hard time taking Yanks seriously here. Unless they lose Lee sweepstakes.
Side Note: Phils still said to be in play with Lee. H2O+L is a bit gross. Gluttonous.