It doesn’t happen very often, hardly ever, actually, but someone in the front office for the Phils has said something so surprising it requires immediate attention. Take it away, Ruben Amaro, from today’s Inquirer:
Though Amaro never spoke specifically about negotiations with Jayson Werth’s agent Scott Boras, he did send another signal that the Phillies are ready to move on without their free-agent rightfielder, even talking about him in the past tense at times.
“I’m not going to discuss Jayson Werth,” Amaro said. “I talked to Scott about a bunch of his free agents.”
Amaro, however, did bring Werth into the discussion when asked about leftfielder Raul Ibanez’ 2010 season.
Ibanez “was still a pretty productive player and . . . his numbers are not all that different from Jayson’s last year,” he said. “What did [Ibanez] have, 83 RBIs? Jayson had 85. [Ibanez] didn’t have as many opportunities as Jayson did to drive in runs.
“Clearly, Jayson had more runs scored [106 for Werth and 75 for Ibanez] and his on-base percentage and stuff were better, but [Ibanez] had 37 doubles and five triples. . . . The difference in their production was not all that great.”
Yes it was. And if Ruben Amaro doesn’t know that, the Phillies are in a whole lot of trouble.
I’m of the opinion that Werth was probably the fifth-best offensive outfielder in all of baseball last season. Ibanez really definitely wasn’t. It’s pretty hard to argue that Ibanez is a better defensive player than Werth.
Also, “on-base percentage and stuff”? Please? No, seriously, please? Can we get some kind of a do-over where we all get to pretend that never, ever happened? I’m holding out hope that he misspoke and what he meant by “on-base percentage and stuff” was actually “everything measurable in the world except for RBI.” It leaves me with this horrid vision of a round table discussion in the front office where they have the offensive production for players divided into two categories: RBI and “on-base percentage and stuff.”
For the record, on-base percentage and stuff is more important.
Among other things, Werth out produced Ibanez in 2010 in doubles, home runs, RBI, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging. He stole more bases, scored more runs, hit into fewer double-plays and made fewer outs. The offensive production of the two players wasn’t close:
| PA | 2B | HR | ||
| Ibanez | 636 | 37 | 16 | 275/349/444 |
| Werth | 652 | 46 | 27 | 296/388/532 |
Werth’s OPS was 128 points higher than Ibanez’s. He out on-based him .388 to .349. Among the 183 NL players with 200 plate appearances, Werth’s .532 slugging percentage was 17th-best in the league. Ibanez’s .444 was 59th.
Here’s their runs created per 27 outs for 2010 and their NL rank among the 160 NL players with 250 plate appearances for the season:
| Runs created per 27 outs |
NL Rank | |
| Werth | 7.51 | 4 |
| Ibanez | 5.37 | 55 |
On the plus side, I find it pretty hard to believe that Amaro feels Ibanez and Werth had similar offensive seasons in 2010. But while I don’t know what he’s trying to do, I don’t think telling people that there wasn’t a lot of difference between what Werth and Ibanez did last year offensively isn’t likely to help him do it.
The Phils signed lefty Dan Meyer to a minor league deal, which is a great move. A former first-round pick of the Braves, Meyer is 29-years-old and threw to a 3.09 ERA and a 1.17 ratio for the Fish in 2009. That’s the only year of his career in which he’s thrown more than 30 innings in a season. He’s been hit hard in his non-’09 action, throwing to a 7.97 ERA with a 1.95 ratio over 55 1/3 innings.


November 19th, 2010 on 10:27 am
Ha! I read the story this morning too and figured a post from you would be coming rather quickly. Very hard to compare the two at all and very surprising to hear it come from the Phil’s GM mouth… Kinda scary if you ask me.
Thanks for the post though, even though it didnt need to be said, I’m glad you wrote it down.
November 19th, 2010 on 10:46 am
Sounds like Ruben trying futilely to drive offers from other teams for Werth’s services down to a more manageable area where the Phils can compete. I think he did something a little earlier in the year similarly when he fixated on Werth’s inability to hit well with runners in scoring position this year.
I’m pretty sure Ruben doesn’t believe what he’s saying.
November 19th, 2010 on 11:02 am
Guys, this is all a ploy to get Ibanez traded. I can’t believe you wasted all that time trying to say how wrong Amaro is. He knows his stuff. He’s not downplaying Werth, he’s trying to push Ibanez up and eventually OUT. Which is good, Ibanez is done.
November 19th, 2010 on 11:12 am
I wish, Jeff. I really hope you’re right and someone’s stupid enough to take Ibanez off the Phils’ hands but I don’t see anyone being that ridiculous for Ibanez’ one year price tag.
November 19th, 2010 on 11:29 am
One reason Ibanez had nearly as many RBI as Werth is that he got to hit behind Werth. Werth on-based .402 hitting fifth and Ibanez got to spend most of his time batting sixth. The Phils on-base percentage for their five-hitters for the season was .391, which led the NL. There was only one other team (Washington) that had their five-hitters on-base better than .355.
What Amaro said was silly. Assuming he doesn’t believe it, my top three possible motivations are 1) to help trade Ibanez (which won’t work cause it’s not true) 2) to help sign Werth (which definitely won’t work cause it’s not true) or 3) to help prepare fans for life without Werth by saying it won’t be that bad, cause Ibanez is just about as good. That might work with some people, especially given how bad some of Werth’s situational stats were in 2010.
November 19th, 2010 on 11:30 am
Sorry, Greg was espousing the “maybe the general public is stupid enough to believe this crap” theory at the same time I was writing my comment. Didn’t mean to steal his thunder.
November 19th, 2010 on 12:11 pm
I really can’t tell if Ruben is talking up Ibanez or talking down Werth. Either way it’s a silly comparison, but I’m willing to believe it’s posturing (on Werth’s contract or Ibanez’s trade value) for the moment.
If I hear anything about Blanton being about as productive as Hamels, as he only had a couple less wins (9 to 12) but didn’t do as well in “ERA and stuff”, I’m running for the hills.
November 19th, 2010 on 1:16 pm
I think Wilson Valdez was probably at least as productive offensively as Werth, cause he out-tripled him three to two.
November 19th, 2010 on 2:06 pm
If only Valdez could play Right Field then.
November 19th, 2010 on 5:09 pm
I cannot figure out what Amaro was doing. I cannot believe that he thinks this fan base is stupid. I cannot believe that he actually thinks Ibanez and Werth are equivalent players, even if he was (as I agree is likely) talking about the second half. The only thing I can think is that he is trying to something to influence some aspect of the negotiating process.
No question about it; the comments are bizarre. SOMEthing has to be going on.
November 22nd, 2010 on 7:24 pm
I accidentally deleted comments from gkit while trying to remove spam. Sorry about that. He was making the rather good point that Ibanez had very good numbers in the second half of the season — 309/375/494 over 299 plate appearances in the second half.
November 23rd, 2010 on 7:30 am
Apparently Werth is to be offered arbitration. Probably not a good sign for those who want him to stay in Philly.
November 23rd, 2010 on 10:37 am
I think it’s the right move, though. Werth will almost surely decline, so at least the Phils will get picks.
November 23rd, 2010 on 10:55 am
Oh yeah. HAD to offer him arbitration. There is no way he accepts and you may as well take the two picks.
November 23rd, 2010 on 12:58 pm
Agree, absolutely.
November 23rd, 2010 on 1:12 pm
Man, is anyone else starved for information about what is going on with the Phillies? I wish they’d throw us a bone once in a while. Just sitting here with no ongoing understanding about what gives is getting to me. The winter meetings seem an awfully long way from now.
November 23rd, 2010 on 1:13 pm
BTW, guess who the new first base coach is for the Dodgers. Uh huh. You got it.
November 28th, 2010 on 8:18 am
From “Crossing Broad”:
Tom Byrne of 97.5 The Fanatic reports that a source told him the Phillies have offered Jayson Werth a contract and they believe it is enough to bring him back.
That, folks, would be shocking news. We’ve all but come to terms with Werth leaving, and since he’s probably going to command around $16 million a year, that seemed to be a safe assumption.
What could have happened here? The Phillies may have indeed offered Werth a contract. Of course they would think it is enough to bring him back. Whatever the offer was, realistic or not, they are going to say they think it was enough. What’s the alternative?
I’m not going to do jumping jacks yet, but it certainly is interesting.
November 28th, 2010 on 6:44 pm
That would be great, but I think it’s a little premature.
http://www.csnphilly.com/11/28/10/Werth-Says-Hes-Not-Close-to-Signing–Any/landing_phillies.html?blockID=362004&feedID=704
I still believe the guys who say the Red Sox are the favorites at this point. We’ll have to wait and see. I think a Matt Holliday contract would be too much, cause he’s not quite as good as Holliday — I don’t think he will be in seven years, either.