Over the last few weeks we’ve heard that Jayson Werth should or will get a contract that compares well to recent contracts signed by Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. All three of those guys are about the same age — Werth and Bay will be entering their 32-year-old season while Holliday will be entering his 31-year-old season. Here’s how some of their offensive numbers for the past three seasons compare:
| PA | 2B | HR | OPS | ||
| Holliday | 1968 | 122 | 77 | 315/397/528 | 925 |
| Werth | 1810 | 88 | 87 | 279/376/513 | 889 |
| Bay | 1709 | 84 | 73 | 273/371/499 | 870 |
The first thing is that it’s almost impossible to deny that, as good as Werth is, Holliday is a better offensive player. By OPS+, Holliday was better than Werth in 2008 (138 to 121), 2009 (139 to 129) and 2010 (149 to 145).
2008, 2009 and 2010 and the only years that Werth has been a full time player. Prior to 2008, Werth had never gotten 400 plate appearances in a season. Here’s how the numbers for the trio’s careers prior to 2008 compare:
| PA | 2B | HR | OPS | ||
| Holliday | 2345 | 150 | 103 | 319/380/556 | 935 |
| Werth | 1129 | 50 | 131 | 259/352/430 | 782 |
| Bay | 2589 | 129 | 118 | 281/375/515 | 890 |
Werth isn’t close to either Bay or Holliday when you compare what the three players did offensively before 2008.
Finally, there’s no question that Werth was a whole lot better than Jason Bay in 2010. That wasn’t the case in 2008 and 2009, though. Here’s some of the numbers for those two for ’08 and ’09 combined:
| PA | 2B | HR | OPS | ||
| Werth | 1158 | 42 | 60 | 270/369/503 | 871 |
| Bay | 1308 | 64 | 67 | 277/378/529 | 907 |
Again, Werth was way better than Bay in 2010. But there’s no case he was better than Bay prior to 2008 and no case he was better than Bay 2008-2009.
The other thing you need to consider is simply that the fact that Holliday and Bay got the contracts they did doesn’t necessarily mean they’re good contracts. Just about nobody, for example, can feeling real good about the four year, $66 million deal that Bay got before his miserable 2010 season. St Louis is probably feeling a little better about the seven years, $120 million for Holliday, but there’s a chance they might be feeling differently by the time 2015 rolls around.
Roy Halladay won the NL Cy Young award.
The Marlins traded Dan Uggla to the Braves for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn. Really they did.
It looks like the Fish will sign catcher John Buck.
Charlie Manuel fifth for Manager of the Year.
November 17th, 2010 on 4:10 pm
I would argue that *nobody* feels good about the Bay contract. Anything that the Mets do that is idiotic makes me a happy camper.
There are actually people out there that feel the Marlins didn’t get fleeced. Not sure what those people are smoking, but would love to get some. Too bad Romero wasn’t under contract. Maybe then the Phils could’ve traded Valdez and Romero for Uggla?
November 17th, 2010 on 6:57 pm
I’d rather have jeff francoeur in right than overpay for werth. (please read that as an incredibly radical statement.) i really am afraid of being tied to guys for megayears who simply do not produce up to the dollars expended. given howard’s 2010 year, it is possible that we already have done that with him. we cannot afford to pay werth like a franchise player. he is not a franchise player.
November 17th, 2010 on 7:49 pm
I’d rather overpay for Werth. I don’t think the Phillies are going to. I think it’s hard to know what “overpaying” would look like. I don’t think there’s much chance he gets a Holliday-like deal. I don’t know how many years the Phillies are going to be willing to give him.
November 18th, 2010 on 8:47 am
I’m really going to be surprised if somebody gives him more than 5 years at $90 million. I think the Phillies can offer that much, but only want to go to 4 years. Obviously, no inside knowledge on this, just a gut feel.
If the Phils can somehow sign him for 4 years at like $75 million, I’ll be ecstatic.
November 18th, 2010 on 9:04 am
I don’t think four years, $75 million should be beyond reason. I sure don’t know what will happen, but I won’t be stunned if he gets that kind of a contract. Hopefully it’s with the Phillies. I think the Werth/Bay before 2010 comparision is pretty good, at least in terms of what the players do offensively. I think most people see Werth as a more complete player who brings more with his defense and speed than Bay does. We’ll see what happens.
November 18th, 2010 on 9:29 am
If there were actually another *solid* choice, besides Crawford, Werth, and going with the guys already on the roster, I’d see DM’s point on this. But I think signing Frenchie just to save a few tens of millions of bucks is akin to conceding the season.
November 18th, 2010 on 9:33 am
On a side note, not that it really matters all that much, but 5th for Cholly on Manager of the Year? To have the best record in the league with all of the injuries that team had and only get 5th? I know that the Phillies were expected to be good, but that seems a bit low to me. Just sayin’
November 18th, 2010 on 10:45 am
I agree that the NL Manager of the year voting was screwy. Not sure how Manuel finishes behind Cox. I don’t think I would have voted for Black to win it all for leading the Padres to second place in their division and not the playoffs. I think Manuel is under appreciated as a manager. He does make some bad game decisions and has had some bad games in the post-season, but he deserves to be recognized as one of the best managers in baseball.
November 19th, 2010 on 7:31 am
Guys, if they can get Werth at four years and 75 million I will dance I jig, unless he signs with the damned Yankees for that. I do think four years won’t do it. Someone somewhere will offer at least five.
November 19th, 2010 on 9:12 am
I agree that someone will offer him five years.
November 19th, 2010 on 9:33 am
I agree on the 5 year thing, which is why I think he is as good as gone.