Placido Polanco started 2010 on a roll. He went 3-for-5 with a home run and six RBI on opening day and was hitting 397/403/586 for the year at the start of the day on April 21 . He didn’t make it through that game, though. He was drilled on the elbow by a Tim Hudson pitch and suffered an injury that would impact the rest of his season.
Polanco was able to stay on the field through most of the year and contributed several key hits in the post-season before off-season surgery at the end of last month. He wasn’t hitting .397 or slugging .586 anymore by the time the year came to an end, though. The Phils put him on the DL on June 26 and he returned on July 17. From July 21 to the end of the season, Polanco hit 280/331/345 over 321 plate appearances. Things seemed to get worse as the season progressed and any power he had was all but drained. From August 18 to the end of the regular season, Polanco got 181 plate appearances in which he hit 241/306/290.
That’s all about the injury, though, and we should expect him back pounding the ball again in 2011. Right?
Maybe so. But my problem with that is this: Polanco’s numbers from 2010 and his numbers from 2009 look awfully similar:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| ’09 DET | 675 | 285 | 331 | 396 | 727 |
| ’10 PHI | 602 | 298 | 339 | 386 | 726 |
Tim Hudson might have ruined his 2010 season by hitting him with a pitch, but it’s harder to see how that ruined his 2009 season. Polanco walked at nearly identical rates in ’09 and ’10 — 5.33% in ’09 and 5.32% in ’10. He hit more singles in 2010 than in 2009, but delivered fewer extra-base hits and the ones he did deliver went for fewer bases. The 2010 season continued a downward trend for Polanco in terms of how regularly he’s delivered extra-base hits and how good they are when they come:
| Year | PA per XBH | TB per XBH |
| 2007 | 13.4 | 2.44 |
| 2008 | 14.0 | 2.42 |
| 2009 | 15.0 | 2.53 |
| 2010 | 17.2 | 2.40 |
Polanco hit ten home runs for the Tigers in 2009, which is the most he has hit since hitting 17 in 2004. That helped him shoot his total bases per extra-base hit up in 2009. Everything else on that list is bad, though, as the extra-base hits are definitely getting less and less frequent.
This suggests that Werth could be looking for seven years, $120 million. I don’t think he’s going to get that, but I’m close to 100% sure he’s not going to get it from the Phillies.
This article suggests the Phils, Nationals, Angels, Tigers and Red Sox may be the teams most interested in trying to land Werth. The Nationals? That would be surprising to me.
Jamie Moyer hurt his elbow again and talks about his time with the Phillies in the past tense. Moyer is a free agent and hoped to pitch in 2011.
John Mayberry strained his calf after just one game in the AFL. The same article says that Domonic Brown and David Herndon will report for winter ball next week.
November 10th, 2010 on 11:38 am
Im all in for Polly starting 2011 like he did 2010 and not getting plunked in the elbow. Its funny how quick I fogot his amazing first game and fast start.
I’ve kinda thought all along that the Red Sox would be the front runner for Werth. I dont see the Phils signing him only b/c this is his shot at one huge deal and I dont put the Phils in that catagory of teams that will spend that. Maybe the ticket price increase is a first step in them being able to pull it off but I highly doubt it.
Too bad for Moyer. Not that I want to see him in the rotation for the Phils but I am down to see him injure himself in AFL baseball. I’m all for the guy continueing his career but this may be enough for him to hang it up. Maybe he can start with the IronPigs as their pitching coach and move his way up in and be able to stay with the Phils in some capacity, I would like that.
Mayberry getting hurt isnt good for him. I figure this year to be his last shot with the Phils to produce, well, anything. He sure looks like a player but his stats say otherwise.
Slow start to FA. Nothing of any substance to talk about with the Phils so far that I have seen worrh noting.
November 10th, 2010 on 1:57 pm
I am going to be absolutely stunned if Werth goes to the Nats. The Angels, Phils, Red Sox or Tigers I can believe.
I agree about Moyer. It kind of seems like retirement has been due for a while now. He has pitched great for the Phils at times lately, though. 1.10 ratio in 2010 and opponents on-based .282 against him. He did give up way too many home runs.
Sorry to see Mayberry get hurt. I don’t think he can help the Phils as an everyday player, though, and he’s about to turn 27.
November 10th, 2010 on 2:12 pm
I feel bad about Mayberry. It seems to me like he should have been a player. I wonder if he ever will be now. Really too bad.
I really feel bad about Moyer. What a lousy way for someone like him to go out. He should have been able to walk off one final time with the crowd standing to acknowledge his long career. What a bummer. Personally, I hope to goodness they grab him to develop pitchers for us at the minor league level for a while.
November 10th, 2010 on 2:32 pm
Bill – the Phils are definitely a team that will pay huge contracts; see: Howard, Ryan. The problem is just how many they can afford. But these are not the Phillies of old that traded away players the second they got good. I still maintain that Ibanez and Blanton seriously inhibit a Werth signing, but perhaps Amaro has some magic left in that old silk hat he found on Pat Gillick’s desk.
I read the Mayberry headline and thought “well, that’s a wrap for him”. Career minor leaguer. Take him off the 40, and let him get claimed or picked up in rule 5 if the Royals they think they can use him. (Which, interestingly, reduces outfield depth and will make the potential lack of Werth harder to deal with.)
November 10th, 2010 on 2:40 pm
Sorry Jim, I didnt intend that to mean ever, but I did intend that to mean this offseason. I dont see the Phils capable of handing out a 120 Mil/ 7 yr deal this FA period which I wouldnt be surprised to see Werth get.
November 10th, 2010 on 3:21 pm
I actually think the Phils would pay 5/100 but not 7/120. If they can convince Werth that he’ll get his 100, but most of it won’t start coming in till 2012, they’ll have a shot.
November 10th, 2010 on 3:59 pm
I just cannot believe that The Phillies will pay Werth $20 million per year, not even for 5 years. Nor do I think he is worth it. I just do not think he is a guy who will produce like that in the middle of the line up. At $20 million, I need to see more productivity with men on base and especially in scoring position than he has shown. The thing that keeps nagging at me is that when Charlie wanted to separate Utley and Howard with a right hander, Charlie did NOT us Werth. He used (gasp) Polly.
November 10th, 2010 on 4:03 pm
Victorino receives the Phillies’ sole Gold Glove.
November 11th, 2010 on 8:41 am
I posted this on another site, but Bill James has posted his 2011 MLB projections and for Dom Brown he has .288/.346/.505 with 26 HRs and 28 SBs in almost 600 plate appearances. Jayson who?
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3154&position=OF
November 11th, 2010 on 9:27 am
I’ll take the under on that. If they set the line at 270/340/460 with 20 HR I’ll still take the under. I don’t know about the SB. Hope I’m wrong. If Brown does play a whole year and put up 288/346/505 line it would be great news for the Phillies. Jayson Heward was a beast last year and he didn’t put up numbers that good — 277/393/456 with 18 HR and 623 PA. In 2010 there were 25 players in either league who slugged .505 or better (among the 176 players with 450 PA). If Brown slugs .505 next year I will be pleasantly stunned.
I think a plan where the Phillies assume that Brown can replace Werth’s production could be a disaster for the Phils. I think you have to assume he’s going to be the fourth/platoon outfielder and let him prove he deserves to be more. I agree he’s going to be great someday, maybe soon. I don’t think you should count on it being in 2011 if you’re trying to win the World Series.
November 11th, 2010 on 9:32 am
I’m not saying I buy it (I think he has that potential, just not next year) but thought it was worth pointing out. I don’t think you’d get very good odds on the under.
November 11th, 2010 on 9:34 am
I don’t think I would, either. I updated my comment above, but basically I think it’s a mistake to count on Brown to replace Werth or be anything more than a fourth/platoon guy in 2011.
November 11th, 2010 on 9:57 am
I’d probably take that under at 5:2.
Brown needs a year to spot start in all 3 outfield spots, and hits with the wrong hand.
The Phils have a free agent outfielder they need back this year, and a free agent outfielder after 2011 they don’t need back in 2012. The plan where Brown replaces Ibanez in Left in 2012, rather than Werth in Right in 2011, makes far more sense from a baseball perspective. Hopefully some money or magic appears to make that happen.
November 11th, 2010 on 11:40 am
I think a lot of this is going to depend on Werth. If he is willing to sign a back-loaded contract, I think the Phillies have a legitimate shot. Of course, what does that do to the finances in 3-4 years? I would *LOVE* it if Werth resigned, keeping Brown as your 4th outfielder until next year when he can take over for Ibanez. Of course, you also have Francisco and Gload on the team, so maybe Brown spends more time at Lehigh Valley.
Anyway, just sign Werth and be done with it already.
November 11th, 2010 on 3:05 pm
Guys, I just do not think that Jaysen Werth is worth $20 million a year. I do not think that anyone else does either. Maybe somebody can over pay him and land him at that cost, but they will be overpaying him. At that pay he needs a much better average with guys on base. A Gold Glove would be nice too. 20 a year is monster money, and while Werth has been a seriously good player, he is no monster.
November 11th, 2010 on 4:02 pm
One of the truths of modern-era baseball is that, if one wishes to compete annually at a championship-caliber level, one must occasionally overpay very very good players as though they were the best players ever to avoid having to replace them with whatever dregs are laying about.
No, I don’t think Werth is worth $20M/year. Yes, I would sign him for that if that’s what it took and there was a way to pay for it that didn’t involve the Hicks plan. In the alternative, an unproven rookie who nearly choked on his cup of coffee becomes the designated starter next year (or platoons with a career backup), and the following year there’s another glaring outfield hole to fill with no reasonable plan in the organization, assuming the rookie/platoon works at all. In this scenario, given the state of the rest of the division, we could drop out of 1st in the NL East as soon as 2011, and out of wild card contention in 2012 as the pitching ages or retires and too few stars are left on offense.
I guess there’s other options as well.. trading, say, Cole Hamels for Jason Bay. I’d rather not go that route either.
It pretty much comes down to what lengths the Phils are willing to go to in order to have Yankee-like perennial success.
November 11th, 2010 on 4:05 pm
Greg, just caught the tail end your comment. Brown’s proven the minor leagues aren’t a challenge to him. He needs major league pitching to up his game. I’d move Gload or Francisco to make room as the 4th outfielder if I had to.
November 11th, 2010 on 4:32 pm
Juan Samuel joins the ranks and moves to the 3 bag. Perlozzo moves to first bag. Anyone think he puts the stop sign up for Oswalt coming into first?? Zing!! I know, really lame, but there isnt much of substance to talk about as of late. Sardinha is signed, I guess thats good for the IronPigs. Pete Orr is in the folds, bye bye Bocock. I am a little intrigued as to what they do with the 40 with the Rule 5 picks coming up. Ehh, who am I kidding. Can we fast forward to pitchers and catchers please?
November 11th, 2010 on 5:08 pm
94 days till pitchers and catchers. I’m just sayin’.
I do not know about the truth of modern baseball; is it really the truth that throwing money at players is the way to win? Throwing money at players who are not worth the money one pays them does not seem to me to have worked for the Mets, the Red Sox, the Yankees. If it did work, there would not have been the wide range of teams in the Series that we have had over the past few years. With Ryan Howard’s new contract, we will see if it works for the Phillies. All it seems to do is to tie one’s hands so that needed moves cannot be made.
I want Werth back. Make no mistake. But unless the Phillies have the kind of income stream the Yankees do, and I do not think that they do (just owning their own broadcasting resources places the Yankees ahead of everyone), I cannot see how they can do it without hamstringing the team’s ability to have quality players in a couple of years. We are already struggling with Ibanez’ contract implications. We will also have to bear Howard’s last years under massive expenses. To add Werth at $20 million at the same time? Doesn’t that guarentee not being at a championship level? Yikes.
November 11th, 2010 on 7:29 pm
There’s actually a lot of money coming off the books in later years for guys that aren’t likely to be resigned, or if they are, at lesser nubers.. Halladay, Oswalt, Ibanez, Blanton, Polanco, possibly even Rollins.. I think 2011 is just kind of a nexus year for some of these contracts, and there will be plenty of flexibility left.
.. Now if Werth wants to sign for 4/$48, well, that’s even better. But that would have happened by now if that was happening. I’m not sure what the number is where having Werth becomes worse than not having Werth, but I think it’s pretty high. (And that, of course, is the number Boras is aiming for.)
November 11th, 2010 on 8:59 pm
Yeah. If he goes for 4/$48 I will once more believe in Santa Claus. I think 5/$75 woul dbe about as good as it gets, 5/$90 more likely as a base.
November 11th, 2010 on 9:49 pm
SI says the Red Sox are after Crawford for right field.
November 12th, 2010 on 9:10 am
I agree that 4/48 doesn’t sounds like enough to me.
I having a lot of trouble getting excited about the Orr, Bocock, Rivero and Sardinha moves.
I agree with Jim’s point above that I’d be a lot happier seeing Brown take over in left for Ibanez in 2012 than Werth in right in 2011. The Phils need to fill two big corner outfield spots in the near future. So let’s hope Brown gets going with the slugging .505 really soon.