Earlier this week I suggested that a big part of the problem with the Phillies offense this year has to do with a drop in their production against right-handed pitching. Utley, Howard and Rollins have all seen significant drops in their effectiveness against righties in each of the last two seasons. Howard remains one of the best hitters in the league against righties, but he had a long way too fall after being literally the best not too long ago. Utley and Rollins saw their production fall in 2010 to the point where they simply weren’t good against righties anymore, and that’s a huge problem for the Phils.
Shane Victorino belongs on the list of Phillies whose numbers against righties fell in 2010 as well, but with one distinction. Howard, Utley and Rollins have been free-falling against righties for two years straight while Victorino actually got better against righties from 2008 to 2009 before struggling against them in 2010.
Here’s what Victorino has done against righties in the last two years and his OPS rank in the league among players with 300 plate appearances against righties:
| Year | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | NL rank |
| 2009 | 283 | 347 | 440 | 787 | 46 |
| 2010 | 235 | 306 | 386 | 692 | 81 |
There were only 102 players in the NL that got 300 plate appearances against righties, so 81 isn’t really where you want to be. Among the 43 NL players who got at least 425 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season, Victorino’s OPS against righties was 38th (one of the five NL players he topped was our friend Cody Ross — sorry to go there, but Ross hit 263/315/371 against righties this year before going nuts on the Phils in the NLCS).
Anyhow, Victorino was really terrible against righties this year.
On the plus side, he really hammered left-handed pitching, hitting 321/381/539 against them. By OPS, that’s a better line than Werth’s 287/402/479. As I mentioned earlier, though, if you’re going to play every day and have a great side and a miserable side, you want to do it the other way around. Victorino had 456 of his 648 plate appearances for the year come against righties. That’s about 70.4%, so it mattered a whole lot more to the Phils what he did against right-handed pitching than what he did against left. He didn’t do well.
Victorino had 11 plate appearances on the season when he hit right-handed against a right-handed pitcher. He went 3-for-10 with two doubles and on September 24 he hit a first inning home run off of righty RA Dickey batting right-handed. After the game, Victorino said that he’s naturally right-handed and trusts himself more from the right hand side when a pitcher’s ball is moving a lot like it does for Dickey (insert the Beavis and Butthead sound effect of your choice here).
Sadly, other than some success in a tiny number of chances this year, there’s not a lot of evidence that Victorino can improve him numbers against right-handed pitching by batting right-handed. In 80 career plate appearances against righties in which he’s hit right-handed, he has put up a 186/266/286 line.
Don’t know if anybody noticed this or not, but the Phillies aren’t in the World Series this year and the heartless bastards are going to go ahead and hold it without them. The Giants won game one, 11-7, hammering former Phil Cliff Lee. Lee allowed seven runs in 4 2/3 innings in the game. Freddy Sanchez was 4-for-5 with three doubles and three RBI and Juan Uribe hit a three-run homer off of Texas reliever Darren O’Day in the bottom of the fifth. The game wasn’t as close as it sounds — the Giants took a seven-run lead into the ninth inning and the Rangers scored three runs to get within four.

October 28th, 2010 on 11:35 am
Wait…you mean they’re still holding the World Series without the Phillies and/or the Yankees? I didn’t even know they could do that.
On a side note, I had a feeling Lee was due for a bad game and thought that the Phillies would light him up in Game 1. Oh well. I had it half right.
Disappointing numbers from Vic for this year. I really do wonder if these guys were hurt more than they let on this season but just played through it for most of the year because there were so many other guys already out of the lineup. My biggest wish for next year is health. Number 2 is find the money for Werth.
October 28th, 2010 on 1:00 pm
They can’t all be hurt. I don’t know how they can be hurt in a way that makes them bash lefties and flail against righties (like Utley did). I think there’s reason to worry about Utley, Rollins and Victorino against righties. If those guys aren’t good offensive players against right-handed pitching, at least Utley if not the other two, I don’t understand how the Phillies are going to make up for it.
They need them to be good. At least Utley has to be good and Howard has to be great. Otherwise I think they’re still good enough to win, but I think they will need to get flukey to win it all again.
October 28th, 2010 on 2:57 pm
Howard needs to be great; I agree completely. He is being paid as if they expect him to have a Hall of Fame career. They are relying upon that. His teammate are depending upon that. And so am I. His numbers this year, though wonderful for most anyone else, were not good enough.
Three years ago, I looked at Chase Utley and thought that he would have a Hall of Fame career. He does not need to be that good for the Phillies towin, but you are dead right; he needs to be far better than he was this year.
Charlie was on radio 610 yesterday afternoon and essentially said that Shane gets poor leads off first base, does not know how to run and that the main reason why Jimmy needs to lead off is that Jimmy DOES know how to run/steal. Pretty interesting stuff. I would love to be a fly on the wall during the next chat Shane and Charlie have.
October 28th, 2010 on 4:00 pm
In my mind, Rollins is at the point where he needs to prove that he can produce offensively again before you even consider allowing him to lead off for the Phils again. He’s on-based .304 over his last 1,119 plate appearances. That’s not a fluke, that’s a trend.
For me, the biggest reasons that Victorino shouldn’t be leading off are that he hits too many home runs and doesn’t get on base well enough.
October 28th, 2010 on 4:56 pm
On the other hand, *somebody* needs to lead off. You can’t turn in the lineup card with an empty 1-hole.
And again, we don’t see the Phils adding a leadoff hitter anywhere. I wouldn’t mind if they made salary room by dumping Ibanez and Blanton, signed Crawford to lead off / play left, platooned right with Browncisco batting 7th, and used Worley and Carpenter as the 4th & 5th starters.. but a whole lot has to happen for that to work.
October 28th, 2010 on 7:01 pm
Crawford, huh? Another left handed bat, but an interesting thought.
You know, Eric, every time you toss one of your stats out here, it just makes me certain that I am at the right blog. Jimmy is on-basing that poorly over that much time? Yikes. Do the Phillies upper echelon ever tell thse guys that in the off season they must work on this issue or that issue? Would someone tell Jimmy he needs to get his butt in gear?
October 29th, 2010 on 9:41 am
Crawford being left-handed isn’t that big a deal. In my scenario he’s replacing Ibanez. And his splits aren’t great – 2010 .256/.312/.384 vs lefties, .332/.379/.552 vs righties – but as this post shows, hitting righties is the team’s present problem anyway.
October 29th, 2010 on 8:49 pm
Is there any real chance that they will move Ibanez?
October 30th, 2010 on 8:59 am
I put the odds somewhere around 20-to-1 against. It would take an AL club with good budget room looking for a lefty DH / part-time outfielder. Maybe the BoSox if they get tired of Ortiz’s bellyaching.
The chances would be improved if the Phils ate part of the contract, but that would rather defeat the point. He’s due $11.5M in 2011. The chances are probably better of moving Blanton, who still sometimes shows flashes of wanting to be a good pitcher (just not for 7 consecutive innings).
But, strange things happen in baseball. Just ask Cliff Lee.
November 1st, 2010 on 9:11 am
I would be stunned if Ibanez weren’t on the team next year. Assuming Werth isn’t back, the Phils need corner outfielders and Ibanez’s trade value has to be pretty low given his age, salary and numbers from 2010.
November 1st, 2010 on 10:40 am
I’ll agree it would be very surprising if they pulled it off. Almost as surprising as Good Prospects for Halladay and Bad Prospects for Lee happening on the same day.
I also think it’s desirable (addition by subtraction; perhaps this is harsh, but I’d rather pay Ibanez to play golf and put a no-name minor leaguer in left than wheel him out there one more year), and it’s necessary if either Werth or Crawford are to be signed.
November 1st, 2010 on 4:32 pm
This will not thrill anyone, I am sure, but I am reading that the brain trust is thinking that this is the year that John Mayberry either craps or gets off the pot. I think he has been put on notice, and they may be leaning his way at least a little. Like I said, no one finds this a bit thrilling; I certainly do not.
I cannot imagine that Ibanez is going to be anywhere else next year but in left. The only way out of that is to eat his salary. If they do that, it certainly will not make Werth affordable, or Crawford either for that matter.
Somewhere the money boys have to figure out what to do to find more money. If they do not do that, then in my mind, they will be wasting the starting pitching money they have locked up in both Oswalt and Halladay, but especially the former. If they have just “rented” Oswalt for the end of 2010 (his trade veto notwithstanding), then this will be a wild off season indeed. As Bette Davis (kind of) said, “Buckle up boys. We are in for a bumpy ride”.
The prospect of that does not light my fires.
November 1st, 2010 on 4:35 pm
BTW, I am assuming that the Ibanez money coming off the books in 2012 will be the money spent in trying to sign Hamels. Anyone else see it that way?
November 1st, 2010 on 5:01 pm
Phillies FB post has Davey Lopes not returning next year: cannot “agree to terms”.
November 1st, 2010 on 5:03 pm
Er, sorry… it is the Crossing Broad FB post about Lopes.
November 1st, 2010 on 7:18 pm
There’s also whispers of freeing up the Rollins money in 2012 if he continues his decline. There’s a reason they didn’t sign him to an extension this year.
November 1st, 2010 on 8:02 pm
Just read the article on Lopes from philly.com. A shame, I was a fan of Lopes over there at 1st. His results since taking over the run game speak for themselves.
November 1st, 2010 on 9:45 pm
Yeah, I am with Bill big time. this team will miss davey lopes.
November 1st, 2010 on 9:49 pm
Um, Jim… pretty interesting.. where did you here about rollins money in 2012?
November 2nd, 2010 on 9:02 am
Here’s the Rollins article.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20101026_Phillies_Notes__Phillies_have_no_plans_to_negotiate_an_extension_with_Jimmy_Rollins_-_yet.html
If Rollins is not way better in 2011 than he was in 2010 or 2009, the Phils shouldn’t bring him back. I don’t think they will, either.
I would really like to know what the dollars difference is in the Lopes thing. It sounds like there’s some friction between Amaro and Lopes.
November 2nd, 2010 on 9:14 am
Sounded like Amaro wanted to pay him like a first base coach and Lopes wanted to be paid like a bench coach. Or something.
I hate see Lopes go, but his services are much more valuable on a team that can actually run anyway.