I’m not sure what the Phillies need to do to fix their offense. What I do know is that the first step towards fixing it needs to be to understand what went wrong in 2010.
I don’t think the problem is that the lineup is so heavily left-handed it can be shut down by left-handed pitchers. I actually think the opposite is true — the Phils are fine against left-handed pitchers but aren’t good enough against righties anymore.
What a team does offensively against right-handed pitching is much more important than what it does against left-handed pitching, just because they get so many more chances against righties. In 2010, for example, the Phillies got 6,291 plate appearances for the year and 4,415 of them, 70.2%, came against right-handed pitchers.
The Phillies are good against left-handed pitching. They have been for a while. But what they do against right-handed pitching is a lot more important. They took a nose dive against righties in 2010.
The table below shows, by OPS, what the Phillies hit against lefties in each of the past four years and how that compares to the other teams in the league:
| Year | OPS vs Left | NL Rank |
| 2007 | .834 | 2 |
| 2008 | .801 | 4 |
| 2009 | .787 | 2 |
| 2010 | .767 | 4 |
The OPS overall against lefties has gone down each of the three years. Most importantly, though, despite being so left-handed, the Phils are still among the best-hitting teams in the league against lefties. Their rank of fourth-best in the league is the same as it was in 2008 when they won the World Series.
Sadly, though, against right-handed pitchers they have dropped to the middle of the pack:
| Year | OPS vs Right | NL Rank |
| 2007 | .802 | 1 |
| 2008 | .757 | 5 |
| 2009 | .779 | 2 |
| 2010 | .736 | 7 |
Again, what the Phillies do against righties is a whole lot more important that what they do against lefties. What they did against righties in 2010 wasn’t good. After being the best offensive team in the NL against right-handed pitching in 2007, the Phils dropped to seventh in 2010. By OPS, the Arizona Diamondbacks were better against righties this year and they went 65-97.
If myth #1 is that the Phillies can’t produce against left-handed pitching, myth #2 is that Utley and Howard can’t hit lefties. Utley especially. In 2010, Utley hit 294/422/581 against lefties for a 1.003 OPS. The Phils had three players who hit really well against lefties batting from the right side — Werth, Victorino and Ruiz. Utley was better than all three of them.
Howard didn’t have massive numbers against lefties, but he got better against them in 2010. In 2008 he hit 224/294/451 (.746 OPS) against left-handed pitching. In 2009 it was a meager 207/298/356 (.653). That got better this year, as he put up a 264/333/492 (.826) line against southpaws.
What is true is that key Phillies were much less effective against right-handed pitching in 2010 then they have been in recent years.
Especially Chase Utley. Here are his numbers against right-handed pitchers over the past three seasons and his rank among NL players with at least 300 plate appearances for that season against righties:
| Year | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | NL Rank |
| 2008 | 301 | 387 | 545 | 932 | 16 |
| 2009 | 279 | 387 | 489 | 877 | 25 |
| 2010 | 266 | 371 | 381 | 752 | 76 |
So, by OPS, among the 300 or more plate appearances group in the NL, Utley was the 16th-best hitter against righties in the league in 2008 and the 76th-best hitter against righties in 2010. In 2008 he slugged .545 against righties. In 2010 he slugged .381 against them.
Again, the problem isn’t that Utley can’t hit lefties. In fact, in 2010 there were only two players in the NL with more than 150 plate appearances against lefties that were better than him. The problem is his numbers against righties are dropping fast and his numbers against righties are a whole lot more important.
It’s bad for Howard as well, if not quite as dramatic:
| Year | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | NL Rank |
| 2008 | 268 | 366 | 601 | 966 | 7 |
| 2009 | 320 | 395 | 693 | 1.088 | 1 |
| 2010 | 283 | 364 | 513 | 876 | 17 |
Again, using OPS as the measure, Howard was the best hitter in the league against righties in 2009. In 2010 he was the seventeenth best.
Rollins has taken the plunge as well:
| Year | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | NL Rank |
| 2008 | 272 | 352 | 438 | 790 | 62 |
| 2009 | 257 | 306 | 422 | 728 | 107 |
| 2010 | 218 | 297 | 360 | 657 | 122 |
Rollins was never the offensive force against righties that Utley or Howard was, but he is down in each of the three slash categories in each of last two seasons. One way you can tell he wasn’t good against righties was that he hit 218/297/360 against them for the year.
The next question has to be why those guys, Utley and Howard, especially, can’t hit righties anymore. I don’t know the answer to that one, but whatever it is should have a big impact on what the Phillies do for 2011. Because Utley and Howard are going to be around for sure, whether their issues against righties are or not.
October 25th, 2010 on 8:54 pm
I see the numbers, but I have to admit that because they so violate what seems to be common wisdom they are hard to embrace. It isn’t that I doubt the numbers. It’s just that everyone has been talking about their troubles against lefties for so long (witness the Yankees last year during the Series) that it will take some time to get my arms around it all.
The thing is that something is dreadfully wrong. For the life of me I cannot understand what it is. Very frustrating.
October 25th, 2010 on 9:51 pm
I hope the numbers are right. Even if they are, though, it’s just part of the story. The worrisome thing for me is that I don’t know if there’s anything that the Phillies can do about it. If Utley and Rollins are going to be bad offensive players against righties and Howard is going to be far less of a force than he used to be, I don’t know how the Phils are going to work around that. I think you have to hope it was a fluke last year and they come back different in 2011. On the plus side, I think the Brown has a much better chance to put up nice numbers against righties next year than he does against lefties.
October 25th, 2010 on 10:11 pm
Oh, heck. The numbers are good. But they prove the opposite of what everyone I have listened to says.
Amaro called Utley’s year a “blip” today. He indicated that Rollins (and Victorino)did not have a satisfactory year (my words) and needed to do better.
I wonder what Rollins’ trade value is on the open market. Breaking up the core is the only way I can think of to “work around that”.
October 26th, 2010 on 9:20 am
I really don’t see Victorino as having a ton of upside above what he did this year. It seems like Rollins could be better, but two really bad years in a row have to make you wonder if he’s ever going to be a force offensively again. He’s on-basing .304 over the last two seasons.
I don’t think Rollins has much trade value. The Phillies also don’t have any other choice to play at short as far as I can tell, so I think we just need to hope for him to bounce back. I do wonder sometime if he might be interested in playing for one of the California teams, but that still doesn’t help the Phillies a lot if they don’t have an alternative.
Utley can definitely be better and the Phillies are going to need for him to be. Ditto Howard. Ditto Ibanez. Not ditto Ruiz. Not ditto Polanco.
October 26th, 2010 on 9:30 am
I don’t think “breaking up the core” is the way to do it. I think Manuel just has to be more willing to play the hot hand. Let Werth clean up once in a while and so forth. Some of these guys might be too comfortable in their positions.
Polanco is, really, what the Phils needed out of a 3rd basement this year. They didn’t need a power bat. Next year, though – if the Phils don’t keep Werth, they’re going to be wishing for 25 HR out of 3B. (Hey, is David Wright available? Mets aren’t going anywhere anyway..)
October 26th, 2010 on 10:03 am
The Polanco thing makes me nuts. Yeah, he’s really good at being Placido Polanco and hitting for a high average with no power or walks. But that doesn’t make you a good hitter and it especially doesn’t make you a good offensive third baseman. Everybody thinks Polanco had a good year cause he hit .300 (okay, .298). He’s a good hitter for average, but he’s not good at producing runs and the Phils need guys to produce runs.
October 26th, 2010 on 10:04 am
I’m optimistic, really, and it’s hard to not be with that starting rotation. The way the offense funked it up in the playoffs reminded me eerily of the Clemens/Pettitte/Oswalt Astros of the middle of the aughts.
I don’t think they can be quite as inconsistent next year as they were this past year. If everyone stays healthy, I gotta imagine it has some sort of positive impact relative to what we got out of the core. I’m excepting Ibanez from that. I don’t ever think it’s a good idea to count on upticks of production from athletes close to turning 40.
I have to respectfully disagree to a point with DeMannse regarding Brown at the very least. I DO want to see a lot more of him in some capacity for two very practical reasons…those being I think we need a larger sample size to see what we really have and that more game-experience is the only way he can improve as a player.
As far as what side of the mound guys are throwing from, it almost seems like it’s WHAT the pitcher is throwing more so than what arm they use to throw it for this group of guys. The Core (can I capitalize that now?) don’t seem to handle changes in speeds as well as most. Maybe it just seems that way because I see them more? Anyway, there sure are cases where lefties make Howard look like a certifiable idiot with the bat.
October 26th, 2010 on 10:17 am
So, what you’re saying is you’re not a fan of Polanco?
I was not a fan of that signing either. They needed a run producer. Just because you have a “run producer” at 2B doesn’t mean you don’t need one at 3B. That kind of logic drives me nuts. I believe he was an offensive upgrade over Pete Happy, but not as much as they needed to have. Now, if Werth leaves, you really don’t have a run producing RH bat. Short-sightedness by the front office if you ask me.
October 26th, 2010 on 10:41 am
Interestingly, with Utley’s defensive struggles recently, I’m wondering if he wants to be moved to 3rd. Of course, his biggest problem is throwing the ball, and third won’t help that.
October 26th, 2010 on 10:57 am
Utley tried third earlier in his career and it was a complete disaster. I wouldn’t want to see that again.
October 26th, 2010 on 1:28 pm
A lot of the Phils problems are between the ears of Charlie Manuel. He is a
bad game tine manager. The Phils could have won this series with some intelligent moves by Charlie. Just 1 example – how in hell do you pinch hit with Ben Francisco with 1 out and a runner on third since he strikes out so much. Why pitch Madson more than 1 inning when Contraras was available? Why was Rollins held up at third on 2 outs when you’re having trouble getting hits?
Every manager has to make adjustments because of slumps and injuries – some just cant do it. Charlie is the problem not the team.
October 26th, 2010 on 4:05 pm
I think Polanco is great as long as you don’t think he’s a third baseman. Just cause he can stand there and catch the ball doesn’t mean he should.
I don’t think Utley can play third. If he can, they should put him there.
I feel less sure that Werth is going to leave than I did two days ago.
October 26th, 2010 on 4:36 pm
@Bob.. game-time decisions get magnified during the playoffs. When they work, you praise the player; when they fail, you blame the manager. On the other hand, Charlie took a team that just about never had its starting 8 active at the same time — rarely even 7 of them — to the best record in the majors. Hard to say he’s a bad manager. Even if I’m still angry with him about Game 4 of the ’09 World Series.
@Eric.. I agree. Some of the signals being sent from the Philly & Werth camps are basically “let’s get this done”. We’ll see what Scott “I almost caused A-Rod to be unemployed” Boras has to say about it though.
October 26th, 2010 on 7:18 pm
Romero option declined. Looks like they’re rebuilding the bullpen virtually from scratch.
October 26th, 2010 on 7:22 pm
Charlie the problem? Wow. I didn’t see that coming. I guess I am thinking that the main function of a manager is away from the field, in the club house and so forth. For whatever reason, these guys love playing for Charlie. In games or out, he “has their backs”, to use the player’s words. Charlie uses his coaching staff for game day things, and I think that is the way to go. His bench coach is the guy who has the responsibility to “prethink” situations. That is the way baseball does it these days. It seems to have worked for us.
Werth. I have no idea what is going on. As soon as I think they mught be going to work something out, I hear Daily News Live today essentially say that it is not going to happen, given the tone of the comments from both sides. If they do NOT resign Werth, there will trouble in Philly land. If they were not going to use him at the trade deadline this past year, they needed to have in mind signing this guy come hell or high water.
Utley to third? I have to go with Jim on this one. If he gets the yips throwing to Howard from second, imagine the ball’s course once he looses it from third.
October 26th, 2010 on 7:23 pm
Romero back for less money?
October 26th, 2010 on 7:29 pm
Doesn’t Polly get credit for being the toughest two strike hitter in the game this year? For a two hole hitter, espcially on a team that thinks a strike out is a legitimate outcome for an at-bat, isn’t that pretty important?
October 27th, 2010 on 9:35 am
I don’t think Romero is coming back at any money. Could be wrong, but he just walked way too many guys to use this year. I think throwing Oswalt with JC available isn’t a good sign for Romero.
On Polanco, I agree he’s a good average hitter with two strikes and agree that he’s good at putting the ball in play and moving runners along. I think that makes his better than similar players who aren’t good with two strikes or moving the runners along. I don’t think it’s enough to add up to him being a good offensive third baseman, though. Must hit ball far to fill that role. I’m with Greg on the Utley’s-a-good-2B-so-it-doesn’t-matter-if-the-3B-can’t-hit login not doing much for me.
October 27th, 2010 on 9:46 am
If you have a move-them-along 2-hole hitter, and a power 3-hole hitter, does it matter which one plays 2nd and which plays 3rd?
October 27th, 2010 on 9:50 am
Yeah, I think Romero is gone no matter what. The bullpen to start next year will probably look something like:
Lidge
Madsen
Baez (eck!)
Durbin or Contreras (whichever one they can sign)
Mathieson or Herndon
Bastardo
Unknown Veteran LH
October 27th, 2010 on 9:52 am
My point is why have a move-them-along-2-hole hitter at all if you don’t need one? Why not go for run producers at every position if you have the opportunity to do so?
October 27th, 2010 on 9:59 am
I agree that if you have a move-them-along 2-hitter and a hit-ball-far three hitter, it doesn’t matter which one of them plays third and which one plays second. But there’s no rule you need to have a move-them-along hitter hitting second or anywhere — your team will be better if you replace that guy with a more productive offensive player. Move-them-along is nice. It’s not as nice as get on base or hit home runs/doubles, though.
October 27th, 2010 on 11:00 am
Ok, true enough. But hit-ball-far guys tend to cost more (and strike out or GIDP more), and it’s the rare team that can afford 1 OBP guy and 7 power guys.
I think if they decided this year that Utley would play 3rd and Polanco 2nd, we’d be having less of a discussion about appropriate production from 3rd base. And we’d be wondering how tall Howard needs to grow in order to field Utley’s throws instead.
October 27th, 2010 on 11:20 am
I still say Charlie’s ability to manage is the REAL problem. When everything is going well for the Phillies ANYONE could manage them. When the main core are not hitting or pitching great, then the manager has to use his brain. This is where Charlie fails the Phils. The Phils were a little lucky this year, despite having the best starting pitching staff in the NL.
The Phils competition was really bad this year or had lots of injuries. The Braves had too many key injuries. The Mets were in disarray. The Nats don’t have a lot of good players. The Marlins were too young.
Again..Charlie believes everyone will eventually hit – the key word is eventually. Jimmy Rollins is not a good lead off hitter by any stretch of the imagination. – except when Chase hit 40 points higher and Ryan hist 20 more homers. Yet,Charlie thinks he belongs there.
Yeah
Charlie is a great guy and the players love him, but he’s just not a good game timer manager. (see SI article about how Giants’ manager outfoxed Charlie at every turn).
I would be happy to see Charlie get some better bench help at game time. If you think he’s OK, then you’re looking at him with your heart and not your head.
October 27th, 2010 on 4:11 pm
They said anyone could manage the Yankees.. but in Girardi’s first year they missed the playoffs for the first time in 12 years. We shouldn’t take winning managers for granted, even if their individual moves are sometimes puzzling.
October 27th, 2010 on 8:55 pm
It is true. There is no rule saying that a move the guy along hitter is crucial. Until, of course, you run into a starting pitching rotation in a short series the quality of, say… oh… the Giants or the Rangers. Or next year when Cliff Lee becomes the number two syarter in NY. And games will be won or loss by one run.
Do we really need someone else with power who also strikes out a lot, or might we want someone who brings another dimension to the offense?
I guess I still think that Charlie is the man.
October 27th, 2010 on 10:02 pm
Watching game one, and it appears tht Cliff Lee is NOT perfect.
October 29th, 2010 on 4:03 pm
Just to take a step back for the moment, is the problem that the Phillies were 2nd in scoring, instead of their customary first?
Or is it that they get hot and cold more than other teams, and unfortunately happened to be cold against the best staff in the NL, which only exacerbated the problem?
October 29th, 2010 on 4:14 pm
As I reread some comments, it appears that a lot of people don’t realize that the Phillies were the 2nd toughest team in the NL to strike out this year (improving from 6th toughest last year), in terms of PAs per K. They actually had the 3rd fewest K’s, but because they score more they also get more at bats, which is why it’s more accurate to look at PAs/K.