The series between the Braves and the Giants is over and the Phils will face San Francisco in game one of the NLCS on Saturday.
It looks like the ten offensive players for the Giants who will have the biggest impact in the NLCS are righties Buster Posey, Freddy Sanchez, Juan Uribe, Pat Burrell and Cody Ross, lefties Aubrey Huff, Mike Fontenot and Nate Schierholtz and switch-hitters Pablo Sandoval and Andres Torres.
For the 18 players (eight for the Phils and ten for the Giants), here’s the percentage of plate appearances in which they have walked and singled this season (the numbers for Ross and Fontenot are their total numbers for the season — for everyone else it’s just their numbers with the Phils or Giants):
| % BB | % 1B | ||
| Pat Burrell Carlos Ruiz Jayson Werth Aubrey Huff Chase Utley Raul Ibanez Jimmy Rollins Andres Torres Ryan Howard Shane Victorino Nate Schierholtz Juan Uribe Pablo Sandoval Buster Posey Freddy Sanchez Cody Ross Mike Fontenot Placido Polanco |
13.78% 12.70% 12.58% 12.43% 12.33% 10.69% 10.15% 9.82% 9.52% 8.18% 7.94% 7.83% 7.63% 6.77% 6.68% 6.50% 5.75% 5.32% |
Placido Polanco Freddy Sanchez Mike Fontenot Buster Posey Carlos Ruiz Cody Ross Pablo Sandoval Chase Utley Shane Victorino Raul Ibanez Ryan Howard Aubrey Huff Jimmy Rollins Nate Schierholtz Juan Uribe Jayson Werth Pat Burrell Andres Torres |
21.59% 20.04% 19.54% 18.28% 17.32% 16.87% 16.40% 15.46% 15.12% 15.09% 15.00% 14.82% 14.72% 14.29% 13.74% 13.65% 12.61% 12.11% |
Pat the Bat is the new king of the walks group. He doesn’t have a lot of company from his fellow Giants, though, as San Francisco players occupy seven of the bottom eight slots.
Freddy Sanchez gives Polanco a run for his money as a singles hitter, but it’s going take more than his .292 with no power to catch Polanco (about six more points of batting average, I would guess). Polanco and Sanchez have been very similar offensive players this season. Sanchez was a little more likely to walk or homer, but they hit doubles and triples at a nearly identical rate while Polanco was a little more likely to single in a given plate appearance.
Here’s the plate appearances that ended in a single or a walk and the percentages of plate appearances with a double or triple:
| % BB or 1B | % 2B or 3B | ||
| Carlos Ruiz Chase Utley Aubrey Huff Placido Polanco Freddy Sanchez Pat Burrell Jayson Werth Raul Ibanez Mike Fontenot Buster Posey Jimmy Rollins Ryan Howard Pablo Sandoval Cody Ross Shane Victorino Nate Schierholtz Andres Torres Juan Uribe |
30.02% 27.79% 27.25% 26.91% 26.72% 26.39% 26.23% 25.79% 25.29% 25.06% 24.87% 24.52% 24.03% 23.37% 23.30% 22.22% 21.93% 21.57% |
Andres Torres Jayson Werth Carlos Ruiz Raul Ibanez Nate Schierholtz Mike Fontenot Pablo Sandoval Aubrey Huff Buster Posey Shane Victorino Cody Ross Jimmy Rollins Placido Polanco Freddy Sanchez Pat Burrell Juan Uribe Ryan Howard Chase Utley |
8.95% 7.36% 6.70% 6.60% 6.35% 6.13% 6.01% 5.99% 5.64% 5.56% 5.45% 4.82% 4.82% 4.80% 4.69% 4.52% 4.52% 4.31% |
Ruiz is the still the most likely member of the group to get aboard via a walk or a single. He’s widened the gap a bit from the series with the Reds in which Votto was nipping at his heels, having walked or singled in 29.78% of his plate appearances.
Perhaps the most surprising thing to me on any of the six lists is that Andres Torres was more likely to deliver a double or a triple than Werth. Torres had 82 fewer plate appearances than Werth during the regular season, but delivered six more triples and just three fewer doubles. Werth led the league with 46 doubles. Torres was fourth with 43 and seventh in the league in triples. Even forgetting the triples, Torres doubled at a higher rate than Werth (7.54% for Torres and 7.06% for Werth).
Important also to note about the doubles and triples chart is who is at the bottom. Utley and Howard was less likely to deliver a double or a triple than any of the other 16 players — five of who slugged under .400 (Rollins, Polanco, Sanchez, Schierholtz and Fontenot).
Here are the rates for home runs and strikeouts:
| % HR | % SO | ||
| Pat Burrell Ryan Howard Juan Uribe Jayson Werth Buster Posey Aubrey Huff Chase Utley Andres Torres Shane Victorino Raul Ibanez Cody Ross Pablo Sandoval Jimmy Rollins Carlos Ruiz Freddy Sanchez Nate Schierholtz Placido Polanco Mike Fontenot |
5.28% 5.00% 4.17% 4.14% 4.06% 3.89% 3.13% 2.81% 2.78% 2.52% 2.46% 2.11% 2.03% 1.85% 1.46% 1.19% 1.00% 0.38% |
Ryan Howard Pat Burrell Jayson Werth Andres Torres Cody Ross Raul Ibanez Juan Uribe Mike Fontenot Nate Schierholtz Freddy Sanchez Aubrey Huff Pablo Sandoval Carlos Ruiz Buster Posey Chase Utley Shane Victorino Jimmy Rollins Placido Polanco |
25.32% 22.58% 22.55% 22.46% 21.27% 16.98% 16.00% 15.71% 15.08% 14.20% 13.62% 13.15% 12.47% 12.42% 12.33% 12.19% 8.12% 7.81% |
Burrell with the Giants this year was both more likely to homer than Howard and less likely to strike out. He was also more likely to walk or double or triple, but Howard still hit a lot more singles.
Burrell pretty clearly outperformed his replacement Ibanez this year, at least offensively and in his time with the Giants. In 341 plate appearances with San Francisco, Burrell hit 266/364/509 with 18 home runs. Ibanez hit 16 home runs in 636 plate appearances while posting a 275/349/444 line with the Phils. Ibanez was more likely to get a hit, but Burrell walked a whole lot more and was more than twice as likely to homer in a given plate appearance.
Overall, the Phils were the better offensive team on the season by a wide margin, finishing second in the league in runs scored while the Giants finished ninth. That gap widened in the second half as the Phils led the NL with 362 runs scored and the Giants were tenth with 306. The teams went 3-3 in the six games they played in the regular season, with the Phils outscoring San Francisco 29-27.
…
October 12th, 2010 on 9:24 am
Once again, we need to play the games on paper. On paper, the Phils have offense and pitching, and the Giants have pitching. On the field.. well.. Halladay vs. Lincecum could be a scoreless, hitless tie going in to extras.
October 12th, 2010 on 9:43 am
It’s funny to me looking at this list compared to the same list before the Reds series. I felt better about the Phils offense vs. the Reds offense for some reason. It just seems like the Giants are more spread throughout the list, whereas the Reds had 1-2 guys at the top of every list, but it was the same guys. I don’t know if I’m making sense, but the Giants seem more balanced.
I still had to look at Burrell’s name twice for every list too. I kept giving a notch to the Phillies every time I saw it.
I have a feeling this series will come down to the defense again. Whichever team is getting more free outs will prevail.
October 12th, 2010 on 10:24 am
I love Burrell. If only he could field. Or play first base. Or hit in the American League.
I agree that Halladay/Lincecum could be epic. That’s one worth waiting for.
I do feel like the Phils are going to hit enough to win the series. Hopefully Howard and Werth make their presence known early on. I really expect that Oswalt will bounce back in his start in game two.
The starters from both teams are fantastic. The Phils have a clear advantage offensively, but I think it’s also true that the Giants have a clear advantage in the bullpens. I’d still rather be the Phils, but they’re going to need more than just Madson to contribute in relief in what looks like it may be a long series.
October 12th, 2010 on 12:02 pm
It’s quite strange, seeing the relative positions of Burrell and Howard in the HR/K list.
October 12th, 2010 on 12:23 pm
Burrell is good. I mean, except when he isn’t. He had a really productive run with the Giants this year. It makes it a little hard to figure out what was going on with the Rays, but he sure helped San Francisco. Being a huge liability defensively hurts your value, however. I don’t think we should be going too nuts about his year, since he didn’t even play a full season with the Giants.
October 12th, 2010 on 2:11 pm
Definitely not going nuts/too worried about Burrell. He just always had a soft spot in my heart. Rolen on the other hand, for some reason I really enjoyed his struggles.
October 12th, 2010 on 2:15 pm
I agree about Burrell. He must be pretty psyched about the chance to play against the Phillies. Tough matchups for him against Hallady, Oswalt, Madson and Lidge, but I still wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a big series offensively. It’s nice he still misses an at-bat or two a game cause he’s such a slug defensively.
Werth has been the best offensive player for either team this season, so let’s hope he shows up.
October 12th, 2010 on 3:25 pm
I always liked Burrell and felt real bad when he was traded. Not the fact that he was traded in and of itself, but that he was traded to the AL where his deficiencies as a hitter would have an incredible opportunity to be exploited, and they were.
It makes me wonder…was it just a case of him playing terribly over a relatively small sample size or is that really how much better the AL tends to be? If it’s the latter, what does that do to you as a player to know that, in the grand scheme of things, you’re pretty much irrelevant because on the biggest stage, you basically don’t compare to your peers at all?
Man. Pat Burrell depresses me all of a sudden. Thanks, Pat. I hope your stupid Giants get swept.
October 12th, 2010 on 3:58 pm
Stats from the field. Giants season ERA=3.36, leading the majors, as did their 1,331 strikeouts and .236 batting avg. against. Their September ERA of 1.78 was the best ever for the month. The Phillies, since being swept by the ‘Stros Aug. 23-26, have gone 30-8, including the playoffs. GAME ON.
October 12th, 2010 on 4:32 pm
As I recall, Burrell wasn’t traded. It was a contract year, and the Phils declined to resign him. Primarily because he couldn’t play from the 7th-8th inning onwards in a close game.
I have no idea why he can’t hit in the AL. But not being able to field and not being able to hit in the AL is not a good formula for career longevity.
October 12th, 2010 on 4:34 pm
I really don’t understand what it is with Burrell and the AL, either. It sure seems like that would be the place for him given he’s such an awful outfielder. I don’t think it’s a matter of the AL being better, but I don’t know what it is. He sure is consisent with it, though. In addition to being terrible with the Rays, he also has a career 205/332/393 mark in 671 plate appearances in Inter-league play. That’s a lot of at-bats.
I agree the Giants are pitching really well. I think it’s going to be fun.
October 12th, 2010 on 5:54 pm
Yeah, they let him go in Free Agency. I don’t know what my brain was doing.
October 12th, 2010 on 11:00 pm
I am sorry about Pat’s leaving. I am glad to see Scott fail, spectacularly.