The series between the Braves and the Giants is over and the Phils will face San Francisco in game one of the NLCS on Saturday.
It looks like the ten offensive players for the Giants who will have the biggest impact in the NLCS are righties Buster Posey, Freddy Sanchez, Juan Uribe, Pat Burrell and Cody Ross, lefties Aubrey Huff, Mike Fontenot and Nate Schierholtz and switch-hitters Pablo Sandoval and Andres Torres.
For the 18 players (eight for the Phils and ten for the Giants), here’s the percentage of plate appearances in which they have walked and singled this season (the numbers for Ross and Fontenot are their total numbers for the season — for everyone else it’s just their numbers with the Phils or Giants):
| % BB | % 1B | ||
| Pat Burrell Carlos Ruiz Jayson Werth Aubrey Huff Chase Utley Raul Ibanez Jimmy Rollins Andres Torres Ryan Howard Shane Victorino Nate Schierholtz Juan Uribe Pablo Sandoval Buster Posey Freddy Sanchez Cody Ross Mike Fontenot Placido Polanco |
13.78% 12.70% 12.58% 12.43% 12.33% 10.69% 10.15% 9.82% 9.52% 8.18% 7.94% 7.83% 7.63% 6.77% 6.68% 6.50% 5.75% 5.32% |
Placido Polanco Freddy Sanchez Mike Fontenot Buster Posey Carlos Ruiz Cody Ross Pablo Sandoval Chase Utley Shane Victorino Raul Ibanez Ryan Howard Aubrey Huff Jimmy Rollins Nate Schierholtz Juan Uribe Jayson Werth Pat Burrell Andres Torres |
21.59% 20.04% 19.54% 18.28% 17.32% 16.87% 16.40% 15.46% 15.12% 15.09% 15.00% 14.82% 14.72% 14.29% 13.74% 13.65% 12.61% 12.11% |
Pat the Bat is the new king of the walks group. He doesn’t have a lot of company from his fellow Giants, though, as San Francisco players occupy seven of the bottom eight slots.
Freddy Sanchez gives Polanco a run for his money as a singles hitter, but it’s going take more than his .292 with no power to catch Polanco (about six more points of batting average, I would guess). Polanco and Sanchez have been very similar offensive players this season. Sanchez was a little more likely to walk or homer, but they hit doubles and triples at a nearly identical rate while Polanco was a little more likely to single in a given plate appearance.
Here’s the plate appearances that ended in a single or a walk and the percentages of plate appearances with a double or triple:
| % BB or 1B | % 2B or 3B | ||
| Carlos Ruiz Chase Utley Aubrey Huff Placido Polanco Freddy Sanchez Pat Burrell Jayson Werth Raul Ibanez Mike Fontenot Buster Posey Jimmy Rollins Ryan Howard Pablo Sandoval Cody Ross Shane Victorino Nate Schierholtz Andres Torres Juan Uribe |
30.02% 27.79% 27.25% 26.91% 26.72% 26.39% 26.23% 25.79% 25.29% 25.06% 24.87% 24.52% 24.03% 23.37% 23.30% 22.22% 21.93% 21.57% |
Andres Torres Jayson Werth Carlos Ruiz Raul Ibanez Nate Schierholtz Mike Fontenot Pablo Sandoval Aubrey Huff Buster Posey Shane Victorino Cody Ross Jimmy Rollins Placido Polanco Freddy Sanchez Pat Burrell Juan Uribe Ryan Howard Chase Utley |
8.95% 7.36% 6.70% 6.60% 6.35% 6.13% 6.01% 5.99% 5.64% 5.56% 5.45% 4.82% 4.82% 4.80% 4.69% 4.52% 4.52% 4.31% |
Ruiz is the still the most likely member of the group to get aboard via a walk or a single. He’s widened the gap a bit from the series with the Reds in which Votto was nipping at his heels, having walked or singled in 29.78% of his plate appearances.
Perhaps the most surprising thing to me on any of the six lists is that Andres Torres was more likely to deliver a double or a triple than Werth. Torres had 82 fewer plate appearances than Werth during the regular season, but delivered six more triples and just three fewer doubles. Werth led the league with 46 doubles. Torres was fourth with 43 and seventh in the league in triples. Even forgetting the triples, Torres doubled at a higher rate than Werth (7.54% for Torres and 7.06% for Werth).
Important also to note about the doubles and triples chart is who is at the bottom. Utley and Howard was less likely to deliver a double or a triple than any of the other 16 players — five of who slugged under .400 (Rollins, Polanco, Sanchez, Schierholtz and Fontenot).
Here are the rates for home runs and strikeouts:
| % HR | % SO | ||
| Pat Burrell Ryan Howard Juan Uribe Jayson Werth Buster Posey Aubrey Huff Chase Utley Andres Torres Shane Victorino Raul Ibanez Cody Ross Pablo Sandoval Jimmy Rollins Carlos Ruiz Freddy Sanchez Nate Schierholtz Placido Polanco Mike Fontenot |
5.28% 5.00% 4.17% 4.14% 4.06% 3.89% 3.13% 2.81% 2.78% 2.52% 2.46% 2.11% 2.03% 1.85% 1.46% 1.19% 1.00% 0.38% |
Ryan Howard Pat Burrell Jayson Werth Andres Torres Cody Ross Raul Ibanez Juan Uribe Mike Fontenot Nate Schierholtz Freddy Sanchez Aubrey Huff Pablo Sandoval Carlos Ruiz Buster Posey Chase Utley Shane Victorino Jimmy Rollins Placido Polanco |
25.32% 22.58% 22.55% 22.46% 21.27% 16.98% 16.00% 15.71% 15.08% 14.20% 13.62% 13.15% 12.47% 12.42% 12.33% 12.19% 8.12% 7.81% |
Burrell with the Giants this year was both more likely to homer than Howard and less likely to strike out. He was also more likely to walk or double or triple, but Howard still hit a lot more singles.
Burrell pretty clearly outperformed his replacement Ibanez this year, at least offensively and in his time with the Giants. In 341 plate appearances with San Francisco, Burrell hit 266/364/509 with 18 home runs. Ibanez hit 16 home runs in 636 plate appearances while posting a 275/349/444 line with the Phils. Ibanez was more likely to get a hit, but Burrell walked a whole lot more and was more than twice as likely to homer in a given plate appearance.
Overall, the Phils were the better offensive team on the season by a wide margin, finishing second in the league in runs scored while the Giants finished ninth. That gap widened in the second half as the Phils led the NL with 362 runs scored and the Giants were tenth with 306. The teams went 3-3 in the six games they played in the regular season, with the Phils outscoring San Francisco 29-27.
