I don’t think we’re going to know for sure who’s on the NLDS roster for the Reds until Wednesday, but I’m going to guess the offensively they will have their eight regulars plus Hanigan, Janish, Heisey, Cairo, Francisco and Nix.
If that guess is right, they would have ten right-handed hitters for the series with the Phils. Regulars Ramon Hernandez, Brandon Phillips, Orlando Cabrera, Scott Rolen, Jonny Gomes and Drew Stubbs and reserves Ryan Hanigan, Paul Janish, Chris Heisey and Miguel Cairo.
Of those ten righties, five have been pretty good against right-handed pitching this season:
So the bad news is that’s five righties who hit right-handed pitching pretty well. The good news is that Hanigan and Hernandez can’t catch at the same time and Cairo and Heisey will likely be coming off the bench.
The other five righties have been less impressive against right-handed pitching this year:
| PA | BA | OPB | SLG | OPS | |
| Drew Stubbs | 398 | 0.262 | 0.338 | 0.427 | 0.765 |
| Brandon Phillips | 496 | 0.268 | 0.336 | 0.405 | 0.741 |
| Jonny Gomes | 375 | 0.257 | 0.301 | 0.408 | 0.709 |
| Paul Janish | 153 | 0.237 | 0.311 | 0.356 | 0.667 |
| Orlando Cabrera | 388 | 0.240 | 0.275 | 0.326 | 0.601 |
I think we should expect to see a lot of Cabrera, Gomes, Phillips and Stubbs in the series. All four of them have had some problems with righties this season and gotten a lot of opportunities.
If the roster guess is right, there will be four lefty hitters for the Reds. Starters Joey Votto and Jay Bruce and bench players Juan Francisco and Laynce Nix. Francisco only got 55 at-bats all season and didn’t fare exceptionally well against anyone. He hit 283/340/413 in 46 at-bats against righties and went 2-for-9 against lefties.
Votto, as you probably know, hammered right-handed pitching this year. Bruce and Nix were also good, but not quite as terrifying:
| PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| Joey Votto | 414 | 0.347 | 0.442 | 0.673 | 1.115 |
| Jay Bruce | 394 | 0.283 | 0.353 | 0.469 | 0.821 |
| Laynce Nix | 163 | 0.289 | 0.346 | 0.45 | 0.795 |
Here’s what those lefties did against left-handed pitching this year:
| PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| Jay Bruce | 179 | 0.277 | 0.352 | 0.547 | 0.899 |
| Laynce Nix | 19 | 0.313 | 0.389 | 0.5 | 0.889 |
| Joey Votto | 234 | 0.283 | 0.393 | 0.47 | 0.863 |
If you’ve been losing sleep wondering what lefty on the Phils is going to get out Votto and Bruce, you might want to take a break. The numbers above suggest you might not need a lefty to go after Bruce. He has actually been better against left-handed pitching than right this season. He has hit for about the same average, but walked at a higher rate and delivered extra-base hits at a better rate. That’s a little curious given that in 2009 he was awful against lefties, hitting 210/313/330 against them while he blasted 20 home runs in 245 at-bats against righties.
Still, given what he’s done this year I feel okay using a righty against him. Votto is good against lefties, but has been significantly better against righties over his career.
Here’s what the 14 players, both lefties and righties, did over the last 14 days of the regular season:
The bad news there is that Votto and Bruce come into the series hot. Bruce is 10-for-his-last-25 with four home runs. Votto 8-for-his-last-25 with three home runs.
Stubbs was hitting 237/307/401 for the year at the end of the day on September 6. He has hit 350/442/675 over his last 95 plate appearances.
Phillips tore things up over the last two weeks, but that’s a recent development. Between September 3 and September 24 he went 12-for-83 with a double and a home run, posting a 145/220/181 line. He finished the regular season going 6-for-13.
Gomes hit .364 in May and .246 in all the other months combined. He put up a 301/320/438 line over 19 games to end the season.
Hernandez is hitting 257/341/338 over 85 plate appearances since August 23.
Cabrera and Rolen both coming into the series in a funk. Cabrera went 2-for-5 with a double to end the season, but had been 6-for-his-last-39 with a double before that (154/195/179). The difference between Rolen and Cabrera is that Cabrera is a bad offensive player playing badly while Rolen has been a great offensive player but is playing badly. Rolen was hitting 303/374/542 at the end of the day on August 17. He has gotten 144 plate appearances since in which he has hit 234/313/375.
This is no time for him to wake up.
Did you know there is a Start Log for playoff starts since 2007? There is.
October 5th, 2010 on 11:36 am
I still feel pretty confident with H20 to deal with these guys. It may be overconfidence, but whatever. It is somewhat worrisome for me that I’ve never been confident for a post-season series before this one, and the team has done pretty well the last 2 years. Anything less than the World Series this year with this team (and the rest of the NL looking like it does) will be a big disappointment.
Hamels will probably lose 1-0 somehow, so the Phils over the Reds in 4.
October 5th, 2010 on 11:36 am
Hello, long time lurker and Phils backer stuck 2/3 of the year in southwest Ohio so I’ve seen a ton of the Reds this season. Just wanted to say that stats don’t tell the story with Jay Bruce. He had an average first half, was so horrid at the plate in July many thought he would get AAA’d for a wakeup call. Only in late August and September has be been completely on fire — and hitting lefties. Because of his ridiculous final month, it looks like he can hit lefties a lot better than he can. He’s still too prone to the strikeout and can get tied in knots by LHP. I am afraid of Bruce right now because he’s still so hot — not because he necessarily hits LHP well all the sudden.
October 5th, 2010 on 11:47 am
Greg, if it makes you feel better, I was confident in 2008. It felt like a team built for playoff series, with no glaring weaknesses, and the “just happy to be here” phase having passed in 2007. The script didn’t play out as planned – Cole Hamels his rotation-mates morphed into Jesus and his disciples while the offense napped – but the result was expected.
For this year, I like our chances against the Reds. I like our chances against the Braves, too.. but the Giants worry me, because they can win 1-0 games with the best of them.
October 5th, 2010 on 12:11 pm
I think the Phils are going to win the series, too. I feel good about the chances for Halladay/Oswalt/Hamels also. I don’t think we should feel too comfortable about it, though. It’s a long, long season and it’s not a coincidence how many runs the Reds scored.
Very interesting stuff on Bruce. The numbers sure back you up — Bruce hit 333/429/1.083 against lefties in August and 300/417/600 against them since the start of September. He hit ten home runs against lefties on the year and six of them came in August. That will help your numbers. He was also good against them in June, posting a 413/438/621 line against them. Overall for the year, though, the difference is huge. Bruce came into August hitting 248/319/380 against lefties for the season and has hit 324/425/941 (!) against them since the start of August.
I’m still not sure who I’m hoping for to pitch to Bruce in a key situation. I think it still might make sense to use Madson against him if you can with the game on the line. I don’t feel the same way about Votto. I think even with everyone available, rested and healthy, I’d still rather have Romero face Votto. Either way, I don’t think the Phillies are going to have the luxury of saving Madson to pitch to Bruce.
October 5th, 2010 on 9:55 pm
I am feeling good about our pitching against the Reds. For me, I think that will not be the crucial issue. I still think that if the Phillies bats are missing, THAT is when we will have trouble. If both our bats and our pitching are on, we win.
October 6th, 2010 on 8:06 am
Will Doc be Doc? Will Votto disappear? Will Howard disappear? Are the Reds too young to do this?
October 6th, 2010 on 9:00 am
If I have to pick, I’d say Halladay and Oswalt both pitch very well and the Phils win the series. Short series is scary, though, and it’s not a fluke that the Reds scored more runs than the Phillies did this season. They can hit. Even with Halladay/Oswalt/Hamels going, I don’t think the Phils are going to shut down Votto and Bruce worries me as well as hot as he has been. Everyone sees an advantage for the Phils and they have one in the rotation, but their bullpen is not very good. I think the Phils are going to need to go into the late innings with a pretty big lead for anyone to be comfortable. I think we might see a whole lot of Madson. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go more than an inning in a game given how spread out the games are.
Looks like Dobbs is on the roster and the Phils will go with ten pitchers.