How about Chase Utley?

The Phils are on pace to go 85-77 this season and finish third in the NL East. If they continue to score and allow runs at the pace they have through the first 61 games of the season, they will score 722, almost a hundred runs fewer than they did in 2009, and allow 672, which is 37 fewer than they did in 2009.

So, as you know, their offense has been a lot worse while their pitching has been better. Overall, they’re worse off, on pace to cut the difference between the runs they allow and score more than in half. In 2009 they scored 111 more runs than they allowed. They are on pace to score 50 more runs than they allowed in 2010.

The Phils have been better in keeping up with their 2009 pace at home than they have on the road. Here’s the runs they have scored and allowed per plate appearance for each of the past two seasons:


  PA R R per PA PA R R per PA  
Home 1066 138 .12946 3096 408 .13178 101.8%
Away 1264 134 .10601 3242 412 .12708 119.9%

So, in 2009, the Phillies scored about 120% of the runs per plate appearance on the road than they have scored in 2010, but just about 102% of the runs per plate appearance at home compared to 2010.

In ’09, the Phils scored almost the same number of runs per game at home and on the road, scoring 5.09 runs per game away and 5.04 per game at home. The difference is much bigger this year as they’ve scored 4.76 runs per game at home and 4.19 away.

In the same way, they are much closer to their 2009 pace against righties than they are against lefties:


  PA R R per PA PA R R per PA  
Left 582 64 .10997 1745 244 .13983 127.2%
Right 1748 208 .11899 4593 576 .12541 105.4%

In 2009 they scored about 127% of the runs per plate appearance against lefties they have scored in 2010. Against righties it was about 105%.

So, overall, the Phils are way off their ’09 pace and especially having problems against lefties and on the road when you compare their offense in 2010 to their offense in 2009. The worst news of all, though, is that things aren’t getting better. Here’s the runs per game that the Phillies have scored by month so far this season:

Month Runs
scored per game
April/March 5.23
May 4.25
June 3.45

It’s really tough to win when you score three and a half runs per game. It sure seems like there’s no place to go but up, but if you’ve been watching the Phils recently you’ve probably been thinking that for a while now.

Halladay (8-4, 1.96) faces lefty CC Sabathia (6-3, 4.01) tonight. The Phillies have lost four of the last six games that Halladay has started. Over those six games he has a 2.60 ERA and a 1.11 ratio and has allowed two earned runs or less in his start five times. Sabathia had a rough May but has pitched better in his two outings to start June, going 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA and striking out 15 in 14 innings. Lefties have hit him well this year, posting a 284/360/493 line, which is a lot better than the 237/296/360 they have put up against Sabathia for his career.