The Phillies have scored just 23 runs in their last six games, which is about 3.8 runs per game. Thanks to a monster start by the offense, though, they are still on pace to score more runs than they did last year. Here’s how the numbers for the 2010 pace compare to what they did last year:
Overall, the Phillies are scoring more runs. They are hitting fewer home runs, but getting more hits, striking out less and walking more. The combination of the Rollins injury and the fact that Victorino never ever gets on base has their rate of stolen bases down to about half of what it was in 2009.
Ruiz’s walk rate is way up. After walking in about 12.4% of his plate appearances in 2009 he’s walked in 21.2% of them in 2010. That has him on pace to walk 108 times this year. He’s still looking for his first home run and has just three extra-base hits, all doubles. He’s slugging just .327, nearly a hundred points lower than his .425 from ’09.
Howard has walked less and struck out less. He’s on pace to walk 39 times and strike out 139 coming off a year he drew 75 walks and struck out 186 times. He’s on pace for 31 home runs and 131 RBI — Utley and his .429 on-base percentage have contributed to his early RBI total.
Like Ruiz, Utley’s walk rate is up a lot in 2010. 12.8% in ’09 and 19.4% in 2010. He’ll walk 147 times if he keeps getting walks at this rate. He won’t. 46 home runs and just 116 RBI at this pace. He’s actually getting hits at a slightly lower rate in ’10 than he did in ’09, but has the same .282 batting average. He’s slugging .564 this year after slugging .508 in 2009.
Rollins has just 31 plate appearances on the season, but was on a tear before his injury. He has a 391/516/739 line for the season so far. Even given how much time he has missed, he’s still on pace to get more walks overall in 2010 than he did in 2009. Right now he’s on a pace for 54 this year after walking 44 times in 2009. He has as many walks for the year (7) as Howard (5) and Polanco (2) combined. Victorino (5) also has fewer walks than Rollins for the year.
Ibanez is a mess. He’s on pace to hit eight homers and drive in 69 runs with a .219 average. His walks are way up, though, putting him on pace for the same 108 walks as Ruiz. He’s also striking out less, about 18.5% of his plate appearances compared to 21.1% in 2009. His rate of doubles and triples is the same as it was last year, so he could use some singles and homers. He’s actually on pace to hit 39 doubles this year after hitting 32 in 2009 — even though the rate is about the same he’s on pace to get more plate appearances this season.
Victorino isn’t doing a lot better. His hits are way down and his strikeouts are way up. He’s walking less, too, but his walk rate isn’t off as much as his hit rate. He’s on pace to strike out 116 times this year after whiffing just 71 times in ’09. He had 181 hits and 31 doubles last year — he’s on pace for 154 hits and 15 doubles in 2010. Three home runs in the early going has him on pace for 23, which would dwarf his career high of 14. Let’s hope it doesn’t come with a .225 batting average and a .263 on-base percentage. He’s also on pace to drive in 116 runs, but that might not even happen. His career high is 62. Howard is the only player on the team who has driven in more runs than Victorino so far this season.
Werth is on pace for 85 doubles. Really he is. Earl Webb is the single-season leader for doubles — he hit 67 for the Red Sox in 1931. Beyond that, Werth is walking at about the same rate he did last year, a tiny bit higher, but hitting .315 this season after hitting .268 in 2009. He has struck out in six of his last 13 plate appearances, but overall for the year his strikeout rate is down a bit. He’s on pace to strike out 147 times in 679 PA. Last year he whiffed 156 times in 676.
Lidge will be active for tonight’s game with Bastardo sent to Triple-A. That’s a mistake. They shouldn’t be trying to hold on to Herndon all year and should offer him back to the Angels. Yes you can see the potential and yes it looks like he might be really good some day. But the Phillies are trying to win the World Series this year, so it’s not a great time to carry a guy on your roster all season if he’s not ready. Unless he is on the DL for a long time, I’m going to be surprised if that’s possible. I also think you shouldn’t be counting on Romero as the only lefty out of the pen given that he’s thrown 17 2/3 innings since the end of 2008.
Stadium Journey has a review of Citizens Bank Park up here.
Update: Well, Bastardo is back now. Madson to the DL with a broken toe. Bastardo back.