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And just think what would have happened if they tried bringing in Lidge to close out the second
By egrissom | February 25, 2010
The Phillies got a little worse at preventing runs last year compared to their 2008 campaign. In 2008, only two teams in the NL allowed fewer runs than the Phils. In 2009 the Phils dropped to sixth in the league.
If you had asked me the inning in which the Phillies saw the most drop off, I would have quickly guessed the ninth. That would have been wrong, though, and for me at least it was a good reminder that the struggles for the Phillies pitching staff last year extended beyond the back of the bullpen.
Here’s how the runs allowed broke down by inning for the Phillies in 2009:
| G | Runs/game | % of all runs allowed |
Runs per batter faced |
|
| 1st inning | 162 | 0.55 | 12.6 | 0.129 |
| 2nd inning | 162 | 0.45 | 10.3 | 0.103 |
| 3rd inning | 162 | 0.41 | 9.3 | 0.098 |
| 4th inning | 162 | 0.50 | 11.4 | 0.115 |
| 5th inning | 162 | 0.58 | 13.3 | 0.134 |
| 6th inning | 161 | 0.49 | 11.1 | 0.115 |
| 7th inning | 161 | 0.40 | 9.0 | 0.092 |
| 8th inning | 161 | 0.45 | 10.3 | 0.105 |
| 9th inning | 136 | 0.57 | 10.9 | 0.133 |
| Extra innings | 16 | 0.81 | 1.8 | 0.098 |
| Total | 162 | 4.38 | 100 | 0.113 |
By the percentage of runs allowed and by the runs allowed per batter faced, the fifth inning was the worst for the Phils. The ninth was right behind the fifth in terms of runs allowed per plate appearance and the first right behind the fifth in terms of the percentage of the total runs that the team allowed.
Here’s what it looked like for 2008:
| G | Runs/game | % of all runs allowed |
Runs per batter faced |
|
| 1st inning | 162 | 0.70 | 16.6 | 0.154 |
| 2nd inning | 162 | 0.30 | 7.1 | 0.071 |
| 3rd inning | 162 | 0.56 | 13.2 | 0.129 |
| 4th inning | 162 | 0.57 | 13.7 | 0.133 |
| 5th inning | 162 | 0.41 | 9.8 | 0.099 |
| 6th inning | 162 | 0.47 | 11.2 | 0.111 |
| 7th inning | 162 | 0.31 | 7.5 | 0.077 |
| 8th inning | 162 | 0.48 | 11.5 | 0.109 |
| 9th inning | 132 | 0.40 | 7.8 | 0.094 |
| Extra innings | 13 | 0.85 | 1.6 | 0.098 |
| Total | 162 | 4.20 | 100 | 0.109 |
Much more normal-looking here, with the first inning the leader by a lot in both the percentage of the runs allowed and the runs allowed per batter faced. The first is, after all, the inning in which the opposition can best control who will come to the plate. Pretty much they try to send someone good, with possible exception of the teams that don’t like clogging up the bases with a bunch of runners.
Here’s how it looks if you compare the ‘09 results to the ‘08 results:
| Runs/game | % of all runs allowed |
Runs per batter faced |
|
| 1st inning | 78.8% | -4.1% | 84.1% |
| 2nd inning | 152.1% | +3.2% | 145.2% |
| 3rd inning | 73.3% | -3.9% | 75.7% |
| 4th inning | 87.1% | -2.3% | 86.6% |
| 5th inning | 140.3% | +3.4% | 134.9% |
| 6th inning | 104.6% | very small change | 103.8% |
| 7th inning | 126.3% | +1.5% | 120.8% |
| 8th inning | 94.2% | -1.2% | 96.6% |
| 9th inning | 141.0% | +3.1% | 141.5% |
| Extra innings | 96.0% | 0.2% | 100.3% |
| Total | 104.3% | 103.7% |
So, for example, the Phillies allowed 89 runs in 162 games in the first inning in 2009, which is .55 runs per game. In 2008 they allowed 113 runs in 162 games or .70 runs per game. .55 is about 78.8% of .70 (actually .5494 is about 78.8% of .6975).
In 2008, about 16.6% of the runs the Phillies allowed were scored in the first inning. In 2009 it was about 12.6%, which is 4.1% lower than the 16.6% in 2009 (again, rounding issues make the numbers on the tables not match up exactly).
In 2009 they faced 688 batters in the first inning — 89 runs means they allowed about 0.129 runs per batter. In ‘08 it was 113 runs allowed to 735 batters or .154 per batter. .129 over .154 is about 84.1%, meaning that the Phils allowed about 84.1% of the runs per plate appearance in the first inning in 2009 that they did in 2008.
Anyhow, pretty much any way you look at the numbers, the biggest decline wasn’t in the ninth inning. By percentage change in runs allowed per game and runs allowed per batter face, the second was the inning where the team declined the most. By the difference in percentage of the team’s runs allowed it was the fifth.
Carlos Ruiz and Domonic Brown are among those impressed with Roy Halladay.
Manuel says Victorino will hit sixth and seventh and that Mike Zagurski is still a little rough here.
Topics: pitching |
February 26th, 2010 at 3:34 am
In 2009, we played 20% fewer 9th innings than innings 1 through 8. That means that when you calculate % of all runs allowed either you should eliminate all games when we don’t play the 9th or you should increase the number of actual 9th inning runs allowed by 20%. If this has not been done, then % of all runs allowed, calculated by the second method, should be increased by 20% to 13.1%.
I prefer the first method of eliminating all games in which we did not play the 9th. Both runs/game and % of all runs allowed should then be re-calculated.
February 26th, 2010 at 3:43 am
Correction: The second method would involve increasing 9th inning runs by 20%, adding those additional runs to total actual runs allowed, and re-calculating the %’s for each inning. The 13.1% I show for the 9th inning is incorrect.
The first method of just doing the calculations for the 136 games in which we pitched the 9th inning is the better method since it’s based solely on actual numbers.
February 26th, 2010 at 1:25 pm
I am very happy to see that Manuel has found a way to clone Victorino to take up two spots in the order. I am not altogether interested in seeing him hit 6th, though. About the only places I might enjoy seeing Shane hit would be 1, 2, or 7.
Having the Phils go 6-up, 6-down to start a game would hurt less seeing Shane-o leading off the third. I say we preemptively nip the problem in the bud by not allowing the Phils to ever go 6-up, 6-down.
February 26th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
That is a nifty trick with sixth and seventh. He may have meant not at the same time. If not, let’s hope the clone can play catcher. I really don’t think Victorino is going to be hitting sixth much at all except when the Phils have a regular out of the lineup.
Prohibiting 6-up, 6-down is a nice idea, too. If that works, maybe we can expand it to 3-up, 3-down and from there we can go 1-up, 1-down. It might makes for some long games, but it’s worth a shot.