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Second helpings
By egrissom | January 28, 2010
It might not be till we’re well into the 2010 season, but I think that when the batting order settles down for the Phillies it will go Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Polanco, Ruiz. In this article, though, Manuel seems to suggest that the Phillies may start the season with Polanco hitting second and Victorino hitting sixth or seventh.
I think he’ll change his mind before 2010 is over. Either way, are the Phillies better off with Polanco or Victorino hitting second?
If you were to make the decision based solely on their numbers from last season, Victorino was clearly the better hitter and the better choice to fill the two-hole in the order. Victorino hit 292/358/445, topping Polanco’s 285/331/396 line for the year in all three categories.
One of Polanco’s biggest problems in 2009 was that he didn’t hit left-handed pitching. At all. Both Polanco and Victorino have been good hitters against lefties over their career — Polanco has a 316/357/462 line against them for his career and Victorino is at 288/357/479. Polanco struggled against them in 2009, though. He played a full season and hit a weak 266/304/434 against left-handed pitching while Victorino pounded away to the tune of 314/385/459.
Given how much better Polanco’s career line against left-handed pitching is than the numbers he put up last season, it sure seems likely he’ll bounce back against lefties in 2010. Lets’ hope so, especially if he’s going to be hitting second against them.
The chart below shows numbers for Victorino and Polanco for ‘09 and for their careers along with the average numbers for #2, #6 and #7 hitters in the NL last season (although I don’t think you’re going to see a lot of lineups in ‘10 that include Utley, Howard, Werth and Ibanez with none of those players hitting second that would have Victorino hitting sixth). They are ordered by OPS.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| Victorino ‘09 | 292 | 358 | 445 | 803 |
| Victorino Career |
284 | 347 | 428 | 775 |
| Polanco Career |
303 | 348 | 414 | 762 |
| NL #6 ‘09 | 273 | 333 | 423 | 756 |
| NL #2 ‘09 | 273 | 337 | 405 | 742 |
| Polanco ‘09 | 285 | 331 | 396 | 727 |
| NL #7 ‘09 | 255 | 319 | 401 | 719 |
So, again, Polanco didn’t have a good 2009. He was outhit by the average NL #2 hitter while Victorino was a lot better than the average #2 hitter. On the other hand, over their careers both players have been better than the average #2 hitter was in the NL in 2009.
The biggest question we’re going to get at least part of an answer to in 2010 is whether the weak ‘09 season for Polanco is a fluke or part of a trend. While he and Victorino have very similar numbers over their careers I think it’s very reasonable to expect that Victorino will be the more productive offensive player the rest of the way. Here’s the percentage of plate appearances in which the two have gotten hits, walks or extra-base hits over the past three seasons:
Polanco |
Victorino |
|||||
| Year | % H | % BB | % XBH | % H | % BB | % XBH |
| 2007 | 31.2 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 25.1 | 7.3 | 7.5 |
| 2008 | 28.3 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 26.6 | 7.2 | 8.3 |
| 2009 | 26.1 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 26.1 | 8.6 | 8.9 |
For each of the three categories Polanco’s numbers are down in 2008 and 2009 compared to the previous year. The numbers aren’t as dramatic for Victorino, but his numbers have generally been getting better.
Important to remember is that Polanco had a monster season in 2007, probably the best of his career. He hit a career-high .341 and on-based a career-high .388. So there was a lot of room to fall. In terms of the percentage of plate appearances in which they got a hit or a walk, Polanco buried Victorino in 2007. It was very close in 2008 — 33.86% for Polanco and 33.81% for Victorino with more of Victorino’s hits going for extra-bases. In 2009, Victorino sailed past Polanco. We’ll see if it’s for good or not.
Ben Sheets signed a one-year, $10 million contract with Oakland. The linked article also says that Greg Golson is now a Yankee.
Charlie Manuel has lost about sixty pounds.
MLB.com announced it’s list of the top 50 prospects, which includes Domonic Brown at 14 and Phillippe Aumont at 47 (that link is unusually interesting and includes video of the players). Michael Taylor is 35 and Kyle Drabek 17.
Topics: offense |
January 28th, 2010 at 9:36 am
I’m still not sold on Rollins hitting one, even after all these years. I’d like to see Victorino/Polanco hitting 1/2 with Rollins in an RBI spot, or at least somewhere he can do less damage when he decides to swing for the fences instead of getting on base
January 28th, 2010 at 9:46 am
I definitely agree and think the Phillies should consider other options in the leadoff spot. I rarely write about it just because I don’t think they’re going to do it. They’re going to have to sometime, though, and you would think that a .296 on-base percentage would raise some questions for them.
If Rollins did go down I’m not even sure you need Polanco in between Victorino and the good hitters. I’d be pretty happy with Victorino, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez at the top of the order. If Polanco is really going to on-base .360 or something I think he should hit second in that scenario, but not if he’s going to on-base .330. His high batting average gives the impression that he’s a good on base guy, but I really think he’s just a good hitter for average who rarely draws a walk and needs a monster average to have a good on-base number.
January 28th, 2010 at 9:59 am
Hmm. Well I’m not sure if the numbers exist to support this, but my memory of Polanco is of being an excellent situational hitter, and able to make productive outs on a consistent basis. Take the right pitch for Vic to still 2nd, then bunt him/ground to first to move him to third, that kind of thing. I’d want him hitting second if that’s really the case.
Then again, if one of Utley, Howard, or Ibanez is going to put one over the fence, it doesn’t really matter what base Vic is standing on!
Just how bad does Rollins’s OBP have to get for him to get moved down? I have to think that both he and Lidge (and Hamels too, really) were given passes last year after coming off a world series championship, but that they’ll be on shorter leashes this year.
January 28th, 2010 at 5:40 pm
I hope you’re right about those short leashes, Jim. I think Rollins’s leadoff spot can be his to lose, but I think it ought to be much easier for him to lose it than it has been in the past. I don’t care if Polanco’s OBP is .330 batting second if he’s making productive outs. I’d have no problem with Vic leadoff, Polanco second and Rollins farther down where he can drive in more runs.
January 29th, 2010 at 8:58 am
I’m under the impression that Polanco is a really good situational hitter as well. I’ll be surprised if that’s not the case. With nobody out, a man on second and Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez behind him, though, I don’t want our two hitter bunting the runner to third unless it’s 1-0 in the bottom of the fifth in a downpour with someone great on the mound for the other team. Hit away. Please.
On how bad does Rollins have to be to get moved down, I think we saw the answer to that last year. I think it’s the same as the answer to how bad Brad Lidge has to be to lose his job as closer. Really, really bad fora really, really long time. I think that’s part of what makes Manuel’s players like him so much, but there’s a good side to that and a bad side. That said, I don’t think Rollins can on-base under .300 through 2010 and keep the leadoff spot with both Victorino and Polanco on the team. Victorino was really the only other choice before, but I think people will start to see Polanco as an option if Rollins struggles now that Polanco is with the team.
January 29th, 2010 at 3:17 pm
I sure hope so. It would defintely make the Lee trade look a lot better. We’ll have to wait and see. He stil has only thrown 17 2/3 innings about A-ball, so it may be a while before he gets a chance to help the Phils while a lot of the other guys on that list will be helping other teams this year (he’s also right-handed).
January 29th, 2010 at 4:54 pm
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