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Empty nest syndrome
By egrissom | January 21, 2010
Phillies batters hit with the bases empty in about 56.1% of their plate appearances in 2009 and in those plate appearances they drove in 16.2% of the runs that the Phillies scored. For the eight Phillies regulars, here’s the percentage of their plate appearances that came with the bases empty and the percentage of the runs they drove in last year that came with the bases empty:
| % of PA with bases empty | % of RBI with bases empty | |
| Rollins | 66.2 | 14.3 |
| Victorino |
62.1 | 9.7 |
| Ruiz | 59.1 | 11.6 |
| Feliz | 56.0 | 6.1 |
| Werth | 55.6 | 21.2 |
| Utley | 54.0 | 21.5 |
| Ibanez | 53.8 | 21.5 |
| Howard | 49.6 | 14.9 |
So of those eight, Rollins, Victorino and Ruiz got a higher percentage of their plate appearances with the bases empty than was the average for the team. Werth , Utley and Ibanez were the only three who had a higher percentage of their RBI come with the bases empty than was average for the team.
If Rollins at the top of the list and Howard at the bottom of the list maintained those percentages over a season in which they both got 650 plate appearances, Rollins would get about 430 plate appearances with the bases empty and Howard would get about 322. That’s 108 more times at the plate with the bases empty for Rollins.
The Phillies are trying to avoid arbitration hearings with Blanton, Ruiz and Victorino. This suggests that Blanton was offered $7.5 million and is seeking $10.25, Victorino was offered $4.75 million and wants $5.8 million and Ruiz is looking for $2.5 million and was offered $1.7 million.
This suggests that reliever Eric Gagne was expected to have a tryout with the Phillies yesterday afternoon. The righty Gagne turned 34 in January. He didn’t pitch in the majors in 2009 after a weak season with the Brewers in 2008. He made 17 starts for the Quebec Capitales in the independent CamAm league in ‘09 and threw to a 4.65 ERA with a 1.38 ratio in 102 2/3 innings, which, when translated from the French, likely proves to be impressive, or, more likely, not impressive or somewhere in-between. Either way, he was really good in 2003 and if there’s some way the Phillies can capitalize on that I’m all for it.
Topics: offense |
January 21st, 2010 at 9:47 am
“That’s 108 more times at the plate with the bases empty for Rollins.”
Is that all that surprising for someone who bats leadoff for 162 games / year?
If anything, it’s an indictment on people not getting on base in front of Howard often enough, for that number to be 108 and not somewhere around 175.
I don’t know what to make of the Gagne thing. When he was certifyably not juicing, he was not a good pitcher. I don’t think those Canadian numbers translate into more than 3 major league appearances before being given walking papers. But maybe there was a lingering injury/mental problem/etc. that can be corrected.
While we’re calling up old closers and asking them to do middle relief, let’s check in Roger McDowell and Goose Gosage, shall we?
January 21st, 2010 at 11:21 am
Sounds good to me. Personally I’m hoping for an Al Holland comeback.
I’m always in favor of getting more batters on base ahead of Howard. He got to hit with runners on a lot last year, though. He was eighth in the leagues combined in at-bats with men on. Led both leagues in RBI and was tied for first in homers.
January 21st, 2010 at 11:47 am
I’m in favor of having men on base when Howard is up. It’s encouraging to see him have the lowest percentage of at bats with the bases empty. Means somebody is doing something right.
What’s Steve Bedrosian up to these days? What about Don Carmen to give Holland a little competition from the left side?
January 21st, 2010 at 11:49 am
PS…IMHO, $10.25 million is an awful lot to ask from Blanton.
January 21st, 2010 at 2:05 pm
Hmmm. So if Howard is getting plenty of people on in front of him, what does it mean for the # Rollins’s additional PAs w/ empty bases vs. Howard to be substantially less than the number of games he leads off? In my mind it can only mean two things - the top of the order is doing a bad job getting on (which Howard’s number contradicts) or the bottom of the order is doing an extraordinarly good job getting on.
Greg, I agree, Blanton is not a $10 million pitcher. He’s not a $7 million pitcher to me either, but I know some here view him more favorably than I do.
January 21st, 2010 at 2:51 pm
I havent seen this anywhere else but it looks as though Smokin Joe has been locked up for 3 years/24 mil.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/01/phillies-sign-blanton-to-extension.html
Its more than what I would pay for Blanton but it seems to be in line with other starters that are signing contracts. I too thought the 10+ mil he asked for was high and was surprised the Phils offered 7.5. I guess I was figuring on Joe asking for around 7.5-8 and the Phils countering with 6.5-7.
January 21st, 2010 at 3:43 pm
I think that’s other places now, too. Three years, $24 million.
I like Blanton. For 2010 it sure would have been nice to have Lee for a million more instead, though. 2011 and 2012 are a different story.
On Rollins — Rollins started 145 games in which he was the leadoff hitter. He got 725 plate appearances for the year. That means 145 times where he has no chance to hit with a man on and leaves 580 plate appearances where he wasn’t the first batter of the game. He hit with the bases empty 480 times on the season, or 335 times when he wasn’t the first Phillies batter of the game. I think that means that in 57.8% (335 of 580) of his PA when he wasn’t the first Phillies batter of the game he hit with the bases empty.
January 21st, 2010 at 3:45 pm
Ok. I am feeling unbelievably stupid. How can a hitter drive in 21.5% of their runs when they have the bases empty at the time? Home runs?
January 21st, 2010 at 4:12 pm
Right. So, for example, Ibanez had 93 RBI on the season. In his 304 plate appearances with the bases empty he hit 20 solo home runs. That gave him 20 RBI, or 21.5% of his RBI for the year.
January 21st, 2010 at 7:23 pm
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January 22nd, 2010 at 8:22 am
I like the Blanton signing for 3. $10M is high, but $8M is about the going rate these days for a 3/4 starter, which is exactly what Blanton is. Hopefully, assuming he is still the third best starter on the team, they’ll actually let him start in the post-season this year.
Having a top 4 of Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, and Happ for at least the next two years is pretty big in my mind. Although, I guess they should’ve let Blanton walk and gone out and traded for Dan Haren, just so they could have the 4-H’s.
January 22nd, 2010 at 9:57 am
It also looks like 3 years, $22M for Victorino. Now, if they can just find some money in the budget next year to sign Werth…
January 22nd, 2010 at 10:25 am
Yup. Glad to see these guys come to deals before it had to go to hearings. It will be nice not to have to do this with Victorino again next season. He seems like a good bet to still be a good contributor as a center fielder through 2012 (when he’ll be 32).
I agree about Werth. I will be curious to see what they do. Not bringing him back would be a huge blow and they would have enormous problems replacing his production. He’s going to make a lot of money, though, barring a disaster in 2010.
On the H front I guess there’s still hope (maybe not the right word?) the Phillies bring in Mark Hendrickson, Mike Hampton or Livan Hernandez to start.
January 22nd, 2010 at 5:52 pm
I see no way Werth will be on this team beyond ‘10. The year after, far too many contracts are up and need to be renewed. Will the Phillies have a 15 to 20 million dollar guy at every position in 2012? Not likely. Werth will be the first guy on this team to be replaced from the minor league “prospects”. Get ready to see Domonic, folks.
January 22nd, 2010 at 8:15 pm
It seems like it’s going to be tough to bring Werth back in 2011 and beyond to me, too. I haven’t given up hope on that completely yet, though. I’d be surprised if they give a full-time corner outfield job to Brown in 2011. I’d guess they would let him share time with a veteran free agent. I think the dropoff from Werth to Brown in the first or second year of his career would be pretty dramatic.
January 25th, 2010 at 3:33 pm
I am surprised at how little we got Ruiz to sign for. Is that level a normal contract for someone in his position and time of service?
January 25th, 2010 at 4:32 pm
without looking into it (because I’m lazy and Eric is a far better researcher than more or less anyone I’ve read), it SOUNDS about right for a (predominantly) light-hitting everyday catcher.
Despite what the pitching staff has done with Ruiz (which can range into the lackluster category at times anyway)as the backstop and the numbers Chooch tends to put up in the postseason, his agent probably wasn’t too thrilled with his arbitration prospects given the fact that the guy can barely be counted on (and in many cases can’t be) to hit north of .250 with less than 10 bombs in a hitter friendly homepark.
That being said, I’m glad to have the guy locked up for a few years.
Also, hooray for Contreras.
January 25th, 2010 at 7:05 pm
I’m not sure how Ruiz’s contract stacks up. My initial reaction was that Ruiz did pretty well for himself. Last year was his best year with the bat by far, but he’s still a career .246 hitter with a career high in homers of nine. He can play defense, though, so it likely he’ll be able to contribute to some degree for each of the next three seasons.
When Ruiz and the Phils exchanged numbers earlier this month, Ruiz was just looking for a $2.5 million for one year, so my guess is that he is pretty happy about 3 yrs/8.85m.
I still think there’s a good chance that 2009 proves to be the best year of his career with the bat.