« What if they threw a bullpen and nobody came? | Home | First look »
Help wanted
By egrissom | January 14, 2010
After having the best bullpen in the National League in 2008, the Phillies’ pen faded to the middle of the pack in 2009. At this point it looks like five of the bullpen spots for 2010 have been filled by Lidge, Durbin, Madson, Romero and Baez. The table below shows what those five combined to do in 2009 and what the Phillies bullpen overall combined to do for the year:
| IP | H | BB | SO |
ERA | Ratio | |
| Five 2010 PHI relievers in 2009 |
294 | 273 | 138 | 253 | 4.47 | 1.40 |
| 2009 PHI pen | 492 | 457 | 223 | 417 | 3.91 | 1.38 |
So if those five guys each did exactly what they did in 2009 in 2010, here’s what the other guys in the Phillies pen would need to do this year to match the overall numbers for last year’s bullpen in those categories:
| IP | H | BB | SO |
ERA | Ratio |
| 198 | 184 | 85 | 164 | 3.09 | 1.36 |
Golly. That’s a lot of pretty good innings the as yet unannounced pitchers would need to give to match a Phillies bullpen from 2009. They would need to pitch much better than the five pitchers in the pen combined to pitch last year. Even if they did, the 2009 Phillies bullpen wasn’t very good.
The five guys we know are in the pen aren’t going to do what they did in 2009 in 2010, of course. Brad Lidge will almost surely pitch better and if he doesn’t he will almost surely pitch less often. He was so miserable in 2009, though, he could still be a lot better without being good. Romero, too, seems like a good candidate to contribute more in ‘10 than he did in ‘09. In 2009 he threw just 16 2/3 innings for the Phils — if he does that in 2010 as well the Phils are going to have a whole bunch of problems.
Madson has had very similar numbers over the past three seasons as a full-time reliever. I think it’s possible he gets better in 2010, but I wouldn’t count on it.
Durbin’s 2009 wasn’t impressive, but it’s important to remember that he outperformed his career levels for ERA and ratio. He prevented home runs at a better rate and struck out batters more regularly than he has for his career. He was fantastic in the first half of 2008. Maybe he will be again, but I think it’s more reasonable to expect that his numbers for his career are the more relevant measuring stick.
Baez could see some improvement coming over from the American League, but he is coming off of his best year since 2005. The 1.13 ratio he posted in 2009 was outstanding, his best mark since 2001. He dropped his walk rate compared to his career levels, but his strikeouts dipped way below his career levels in 2009 and his batting average for balls in play was a tiny .232 on a Baltimore team where the average pitcher had a batting average for balls in play of .309. The .232 mark was the lowest it has been for Baez in any year of his career. I’m not saying that Baez isn’t going to help. Not at all. The Phillies need him. I am saying that he’s not going to have a 1.13 ratio this year.
Topics: Bullpen |
January 14th, 2010 at 5:03 pm
This latest Lidge surgury is troublesome. I really hope he is ready earlier than later.
Just looking at the 5 guys you mention above, I am happy about them when they are all pitching to their potential. There are other BP’s that have 5 worse guys so I guess I am looking at it half full, keeping my fingers crossed, and knocking on wood. I’m not saying the Phils dont need to improve the pen, I have been saying they should all year, but these 5 guys are a solid beginning. Again, half full…
January 14th, 2010 at 7:09 pm
[…] Help wanted | Philliesflow.com www.philliesflow.com/2010/01/14/help-wanted – view page – cached A fan’s blog devoted to the Philadelphia Phillies and Major League Baseball […]
January 14th, 2010 at 7:35 pm
I agree. I feel really good about a core of Lidge, Romero and Madson if everyone is healthy. I do worry about the health of Lidge and Romero given what happened with both of them last year and in the off-season.
Durbin is going to have a hard time being successful if he walks as many hitters as he did last year. He did contribute a ton in 2008, so let’s hope for the best. Not sure what to make of Baez, but he was really good last year in the AL so maybe he’ll make it two in a row.
I would like to see a couple of solid additions to the pen before the start of the season, though.
January 15th, 2010 at 3:30 pm
We have to keep in mind the Phillies bullpen was extremely overworked early last season. The starting rotation was horrible causing the bullpen to wear down early and eventually injure. The bullpen does not look as strong going into the 2010 season so I hope the starting rotation can eat up innings and artificially make the bullpen looks strong. In the end, the Phillies will need to pick up a few veteran arms for the bullpen to make it back to the Series. I hope management sees this inadequacy before the trade deadline and is not myopic about the situation. Picking up another low risk/high reward starter like Ben Sheets could help the starting rotation eat up those innings needed. If not, the young guys and/or new additions will need to bolster this pen.
Should be fun! GO PHILLIES
January 15th, 2010 at 5:01 pm
I think that’s a great point about how awful the starting pitching was last year. The starters ended April with a 6.35 ERA for the year and by the time May ended it wasn’t a lot better — 5.86. Still, overall for the year the Phils were just ninth in the NL in IP by relievers, although I do agree that all the early work took a toll.
Definitely with you on the need for some veteran arms. I feel pretty confident that the Phillies will be able to do it. Should be fun indeed.
January 16th, 2010 at 2:17 am
Nice stat work. Not the most desirable results for Phillies fans to see, but I’d worry less about the core group pitching effectively and more about them getting, and staying, healthy. Baez is a nice addition and, if he’s healthy, Lidge isn’t the 7.21 ERA guy that he was last season.