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Walking on empty
By egrissom | January 5, 2010
During the 2007 season, Phillies pitchers walked 558 batters. That’s too many. Only five NL teams walked more that year. The number of walks the Phillies issued dropped in 2008 and dropped even more in 2009. During the 2009 season, Phillies pitching allowed just 489 walks. St Louis was the only team in the NL to give up fewer walks.
So the Phillies have cut down the number of walks that they issue over the past couple of seasons, which is a very good thing. That’s not today’s point, though. Today’s point is that in 2009 some Phillies pitchers were better at preventing walks with the bases empty than others.
During 2009, Phillies pitcher walked about 6.6% of the batters they faced when the based were empty and about 9.3% of the batters they faced when there was at least one man on base. Not all Phillies pitchers saw that kind of increase in the walks they allowed, though. Some walked batters at a lower rate when the bases were empty in 2009 than they did when there was at least one man on. Of the 22 pitchers who appeared for the Phillies in 2009, nine of them were better at preventing walks when there were men on base than when the bases were empty. The chart below shows, for the nine, the walks they issued per 100 plate appearances with the bases empty, where this ranks among the 22 Phillies pitchers for 2009, the walks they issued per 100 plate appearances with men on base, where this ranks among the ‘09 Phillies pitchers and how much higher their rate of walking men with the bases empty was compared to with men aboard as a percentage (pitchers who faced less than 150 batters are in bold):
| Player | BB per 100 empty |
Rank | BB per 100 men on |
Rank | % |
| Myers | 7.6 | 13 | 7.6 | 9 | 100.1 |
| Taschner | 14.0 | 19 | 14.0 | 19 | 100.6 |
| Carpenter | 13.3 | 18 | 11.8 | 16 | 113.3 |
| Hamels | 5.9 | 8 | 4.4 | 4 | 134.6 |
| Bastardo | 9.5 | 15 | 7.0 | 6 | 136.5 |
| Lee | 3.7 | 3 | 2.1 | 2 | 174.7 |
| Eyre | 16.7 | 20 | 8.8 | 11 | 188.9 |
| Kendrick | 10.6 | 16 | 4.3 | 3 | 243.9 |
| Register | 33.2 | 22 | 0.0 | 1 | - |
So, for example, Cole Hamels walked about 5.9% of the batters he faced with the bases empty (which was fifth-best on the team) and about 4.4% of the batters he faced with men on base (fourth-best on the team). Overall for the year his walk rate with nobody on base was about 135% of what it was with men aboard.
At the bottom of that list, Stephen Register faced just 11 batters all year long for the Phils. He walked one of the three he faced with the bases empty, giving him the worst rate of walks per 100 plate appearances on the team with nobody aboard, but none of the eight hitters he faced with men on base.
Being on the list above doesn’t mean that you’re necessarily good at preventing walks, just that in ‘09 you were at least a little bit better at it than you were when there were men on base. Eyre, for example, gave up way too many walks overall, but cut down his rate considerably when there were ducks aboard.
Hamels and Kendrick are the pitchers of that group that seem likely to impact the Phillies in the future. Hamels saw his walk rate drop in 2009 while the rest of his numbers went up. He had a lot more success in 2007 and 2008 than he did in 2009 — in each of those years he rate of walking batters was better with the bases empty than with men aboard, which is the opposite of his results for 2009 (in 2006 his rates were nearly identical).
Kendrick didn’t face a ton of hitters in 2009, but was much better at preventing walks when their were men on base than when there weren’t. His walk rate overall was lower than his miserable 2008, but worse than his mark for 2007 when he was very effective. By opponent OPS, Kendrick was the Phillies best pitcher in 2009 with the bases empty. Opponents hit 203/288/203 against him (12-for-59 with 12 singles and seven walks and a .491 OPS). By comparison, they hit 287/321/393 (.753) against Cliff Lee with the bases empty. Since he didn’t walk anyone with me on base you’d think Kendrick would be pretty much invincible, but sadly despite not walking anyone Kendrick allowed opponents to hit .375 against him with men on base, which will mess things up in a jiffy.
Here’s the numbers for the 13 pitchers who allowed walks more regularly when there were runners on base:
| Player | BB per 100 empty |
Rank | BB per 100 men on |
Rank | % |
| Romero | 17.2 | 21 | 18.2 | 21 | 105.5 |
| Madson | 6.5 | 10 | 7.3 | 8 | 113.3 |
| Moyer | 5.4 | 6 | 7.2 | 7 | 133.8 |
| Condrey | 6.9 | 12 | 9.6 | 12 | 138.4 |
| Happ | 6.7 | 11 | 10.1 | 15 | 151.2 |
| Lopez | 6.0 | 9 | 10.0 | 14 | 167.5 |
| Durbin | 11.0 | 17 | 19.7 | 22 | 178.5 |
| Blanton | 5.1 | 5 | 9.9 | 13 | 193.9 |
| Lidge | 8.2 | 14 | 16.2 | 20 | 198.2 |
| Walker | 3.8 | 4 | 8.3 | 10 | 216.7 |
| Park | 5.6 | 7 | 13.4 | 18 | 241.5 |
| Martinez | 1.9 | 1 | 6.9 | 5 | 358.6 |
| Escalona | 3.4 | 2 | 12.9 | 17 | 374.2 |
Remember that overall the Phillies walked about 9.3 batters per 100 plate appearances with men on base and about 6.6 batters with the bases empty. So the average pitcher had a walk rate that was about 141% of his walk rate with the bases empty.
Again, being on this list doesn’t necessarily mean you issued a lot of walks. Pedro, for example, issued walks at about 3 1/2 times his bases empty rate with men on base. His rate of allowing walks with men on base was still fifth-best on the team despite how much more regularly he issued walks with men aboard.
Looking again to the guys who will impact 2010, the rates that Durbin and Lidge issued walks with men on base has to be the scariest data from the chart above. Durbin walked nearly one in five men he faced with runners aboard and Lidge was nearly as bad.
Blanton also saw his rate of walks increase dramatically. With nobody on he was among the best on the team at preventing bases on balls. When men got on base he gave up a lot more and fell to the middle of the pack. Happ started in the middle and saw his rate increase at about the rate that was the average for the team.
Romero just walks a ton of folks regardless of the situation.
Madson and Moyer both walked more with men on base, but not a whole lot more and their rates for allowing walks in both circumstances were pretty good compared to the rest of the team.
This suggests that the Phillies may announce the signing of Danys Baez if he passes his physical this week. Baez missed all of 2008 after Tommy John surgery, but threw to a 4.02 ERA and a 1.13 ratio for Baltimore in 2009.
The article linked above also says that the Phillies have made a minor league offer to Eyre.
Today is the first day that players can file for arbitration. This article talks about what we might expect to happen with Victorino, Blanton, Ruiz and Durbin.
Topics: pitching |
January 5th, 2010 at 10:52 am
Amaro trades or signings: Ibanez, Fransico, Castro, Polanco, Baez. I am seeing a pattern. I don’t want to come off as seeming non-politically correct, but it seems obvious to me. I do realize we just brought in Halladay, Gload and Schneider. It just seems like he’s bringing in a lot of Latins.
January 5th, 2010 at 11:07 am
As long as he keeps bringing in good baseball players it’s okay with me. I honestly hadn’t noticed any bias on the part of Amaro towards any type of player. Ibanez was born in New York, Francisco in California.
January 5th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
I think it just so happens there are a lot of good latin ballplayers in the major leagues. Happy about Baez and I hope but do not hold out hope Eyre will accept the minor league offer. I just like having that guy around.
January 5th, 2010 at 1:50 pm
I like the Baez signing as well and too hope that Eyre comes back.
Anyone see the Beltre signing? Wow… This article also reports the Phils offer of 3 yrs 24 mil. I guess I am just surprised the guy signed a 1 year deal. I guess he has a player option but still…
January 5th, 2010 at 1:50 pm
Sorry, forgot the article…
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Rosenthal-Red-Sox-get-Beltre-for-cheap-010410
January 5th, 2010 at 2:27 pm
Uhh…I dunno. I’m largely glad the Phils didn’t tie up 8 mil/year on Beltre who seems to have injury issues and lackluster stats ever since his breakout campaign.
The guy could be a monster in the National League I guess…especially in Citizens Bank Park…but I’m comfortable at the moment with Polanco.
January 5th, 2010 at 4:31 pm
I’m glad to have Baez, too. Also agree that I’d like to see Eyre come back as well.
I think the Polanco signing was pretty bad. He’s a nice player, but I’m not sure he was the best choice for the Phils. Three years is a long time given his age and the lack of experience at third. We’ll see. I would have loved to have seen the Phillies sign Beltre to a shorter contract than three years. I think Beltre for 3/24 would have been a little better than Polanco. Beltre to a shorter contract would have been a lot better. Polanco can’t really be a three-year solution at third, can he?
January 5th, 2010 at 8:18 pm
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January 5th, 2010 at 10:18 pm
It depends I think. Is Beltre healthy or not? I think it’s fair to say Beltre isn’t the guy who wore his jersey last year and hit only 8 homeruns. I’m also positive he isn’t the same guy that hit 48 homers 6 years ago now.
That leaves somewhere in the middle which, to be fair, has been the trend for his career (almost EXACTLY in the middle in fact). His line last year is terrifyingly bad and worrisome I think for a team, like the Phils, to throw 8 mil a year at a guy.
Yeah, he’ll pass a physical to end up in Boston, but I think Polanco right now is much more of a known and reliable commodity despite being 5 years Beltre’s elder and playing out of position. Yeah, you’re not gonna see a .850 OPS from Polanco, but I’d bet the farm we won’t see under .700 either. I wouldn’t have the same confidence with Beltre.
January 5th, 2010 at 11:14 pm
Given the special former-GM insights that Philadelphia may have into the Seattle roster, if they passed on Beltre it is OK with me. Still, the Polanco deal has me wondering. Three years? Long throw to first? Pete Happy charged those slow rollers so well.
And if and when Polanco gets to first, does Lopes just chat with him that entire inning or can he run? I was a fan of PP when he played here, and I was happy when he succeeded in DET, but the sun sets fast.
Pete happy made the difference. We were pretty good before, but had David Broken and Wes Blubber and didn’t win it; with Pete we won it, and he himself did well in the 2008 WS.
I agree with Erik, that there just are a lot of good Latin American players, and if you are signing good players, many will be Latin Americans.
January 6th, 2010 at 8:56 am
I’m not sure Feliz is the guy we should be comparing Polanco to. If you have a bad third baseman the goal shouldn’t be to replace him with a bad third baseman who is a little bit better. It should be to replace him with a good third baseman. I do agree that Polanco is a lock to be worse than Feliz defensively. I also think he’s a near lock to be a worse offensive player than most teams have playing third, which is why I think it was a bad signing.
January 6th, 2010 at 2:19 pm
I am 100% cool with Polanco.
what BA and On base % should we hold him to to measure success?
If he hits .290 and .360 would we say that is success? I think he will do better than that.
I loved Feliz, but at times it felt like all or nothing…granted he did have some big hits for us and stellar defense.
January 6th, 2010 at 3:26 pm
I’d be thrilled if Polanco on-based .360 this year. I think that’s possible, although he has done it just once in the last four seasons. He’s not a good on-base guy, he’s a good average guy. He’s really bad at getting on base any way other than getting a hit.
The answer to your question is I think we should compare him to the other third baseman in the league. He’s not as good as hitter.
The bigger issue is the lack of power. The average NL team got 20 home runs and 84 RBI from their third baseman last year. Polanco has close to no chance to hit either of those numbers (no chance to hit 20 home runs. I’d be thrilled with 84 RBI but there’s close to no chance of that).
January 6th, 2010 at 4:05 pm
Yes, but I’d have to imagine that the Phils power numbers at just about every other position are probably somewhat higher (a lot higher in some cases) on average than the rest of the NL. If 3rd base is our ONLY power void, I am beyond okay with that. If Polanco puts up better OPS than Feliz (I think he probably will), great.
Polanco also has a little more lineup mobility than Feliz, I think. He’s a guy that, when giving Victorino or Rollins a rest now and again, can move around to different spots in the lineup (okay…maybe only 2nd, 7th, and 8th) granting a bit more versatility there.
Hey, let’s just agree to look at it this way: If Polanco is our biggest worry in the lineup, we’ve probably got a pretty good lineup. Of course that could have been said before Feliz left (depending upon what kind of hitter you think Ruiz REALLY is) ABOUT Feliz but meh.
January 6th, 2010 at 4:23 pm
I totally am with you that if Polanco at third is the Phillies biggest problem in 2010 they are in good shape. Also agree that he may be able to move to other positions in the infield more easily than Feliz. Also agree that Feliz wasn’t very good last year and Polanco may be better offensively.
Where I’m not with you is on the idea that who the Phillies have playing first or second or anywhere else is related to how good a third baseman Polanco is. I think the question of whether Polanco is a good 3B has to be answered independently of who else is on the team. It may be that the answer is that Polanco is a good enough 3B for this Phillies team — Feliz was a good enough 3B for the ‘08 team obviously — but I think that’s a different question than how good he is overall at the position. I don’t think he’ll be very good at the position compared to other 3B, but he might be good enough. I think the Phillies could have improved a lot more overall by getting a better all round player to man third.
January 6th, 2010 at 4:58 pm
My comparison (power at other positions)had less to do with Polanco’s worth as a third baseman and more to do with an “acceptable” loss of power at one position in exchange for good-to-tremendous power everywhere else (as far as all other positions compared to all other positions on other teams…2nd base for example being a spot where we have way more power than the average NL 2nd base spot).
I don’t think the Phillies NEED to be powerful at a power-trend position to be successful. Feliz wasn’t great last year, was slightly better in 2008, but the Phils made up for it literally everywhere else.
Of course…I agree, getting a player better than Polanco to play third is better than getting Polanco to play third. I’m not that far gone yet to say otherwise. I think my whole point to start with was that I wasn’t convinced Beltre would have a better season than Polanco this year, offensively (as foolish and misguided as that may sound). Chone Figgins was my grownup (pre-)Christmas Wish (again, however foolish or misguided that may have been).
January 6th, 2010 at 5:21 pm
Yep. I think we’re saying the same thing. Someone better than Polanco would have been better, but hopefully Polanco will be good enough.
I definitely agree with your middle paragraph about not needing a lot of power from third to be successful. See 2008.
I don’t know what I think about the Beltre/Polanco thing for 2010. I think Polanco was better last year and Beltre better the year before. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think Polanco could be the better hitter this year. We’ll see.
January 7th, 2010 at 2:05 am
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January 8th, 2010 at 2:12 am
[…] Walking on empty During the 2007 season, BPhillies/B pitchers walked 558 batters. That’s too many. Only five NL teams walked more that year. […]