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Brother, can you spare $115,384 so we can beat the Nats 6-2 instead of 5-2?
By egrissom | December 11, 2009
The rise to super-stardom by Chase Utley and Ryan Howard has helped bring the Phillies a championship and a whole lot of spectacular moments. It has also brought a payroll challenge. Utley and Howard have been fantastic offensive players over the last four seasons. They were great four years ago, great last year and the Phillies are counting on them to keep on being great in 2010. But while the amount of offense they are producing hasn’t improved over the past four years, the amount of money that the Phillies have to pay them to produce it has.
The chart below shows the number of runs they each created in 2009 (as calculated by Baseball-Reference), their ‘09 salary and the salary over runs created. It also shows the same information for the 2006 season.
| Runs Created |
Salary | $/RC | |
| Howard ‘09 | 130 | $15,000,000 | $115,384 |
| Howard ‘06 | 169 | $355,000 | $2,100 |
| Utley ‘09 | 130 | $11,285,714 | $86,813 |
| Utley ‘06 | 136 | $500,000 | $3,676 |
The point here is not that Utley and Howard are overpaid. It’s also not that they’re anything but great offensive players. They are — in 2006, Howard led the NL in runs created and Utley was fifth. In 2009 they tied for fifth in the league with 130 runs created.
The point is that in 2009 they created about the same or less offense and it cost the Phillies about 55 times as much for Howard to produce a run as it did in 2006 and about 23 1/2 times as much for Utley.
Last year the Phillies spent about $57.1 million to pay their offensive players and scored 820 runs. Let’s pretend that for each of the past four years the Phillies had spent $57.1 million on offensive players and also tried to score the 820 runs they did in 2009. Using runs created as the measurement, the amount of offense produced by Utley and Howard is not improving. It’s high, but has stayed very much the same for Utley since ‘06 and gone down a little for Howard. So to get to 820 every year they get similar offense from Howard and Utley, but need to get the same contribution from the players who aren’t Utley and Howard and have a lot less money to pay them.
The Phillies didn’t pay their offensive players $57.1 million in 2006. If they had, though, the $855,000 they paid Utley and Howard would have accounted for about 1.5% of the offensive payroll. In 2009, the $26,285,714 was about 46% of $57.1 million. With Utley and Howard producing at about the same rates in both years it would leave the Phils about $56.2 million to pay non-Utley or Howard players in 2006 and about $30.8 million to pay them in 2009.
If Utley and Howard do the same thing every year, that’s about half the money to acquire players from whom you need the same result.
Of course, the Phillies payroll isn’t staying the same year after year. It’s rising. With help from USA Today’s Baseball Salary Database we see that in 2006 the Phillies payroll was about $88.3 million and in 2009 it was about $113 million.
The problem is, though, that it wasn’t rising as fast as the salaries for Utley and Howard. The table below shows the payroll for each of those years, how much Utley and Howard combined to make and how much all of the players on payroll other than Utley and Howard combined to make:
| Payroll | Utley and Howard |
All players other than Utley and Howard |
|
| 2009 | $113,004,046 | $26,285,714 | $86,718,332 |
| 2006 | $88,273,333 | $855,000 | $87,418,333 |
So despite the fact that the Phillies spent almost $25 million more on payroll in 2009 than in 2006, they spent less to pay players that were not Utley and Howard.
Again, Utley and Howard are great but they’re not getting better. If the goal is to get the same or better results from the rest of the team it leaves the Phillies with less money to do so.
Good news, though. Just about everyone seems to think that the Phillies payroll for 2010 will be about $140 million. Let’s pretend it is exactly that. Knowing that Howard will make $19 million in 2010 and Utley will make $15 million, we can add 2010 to the list:
| Payroll | Utley and Howard |
All players other than Utley and Howard |
|
| 2009 | $113,004,046 | $26,285,714 | $86,718,332 |
| 2006 | $88,273,333 | $855,000 | $87,418,333 |
| 2010 | $140,000,000 | $34,000,000 | $106,000,000 |
Nifty. So compared to 2006, the Phillies didn’t spend more money on players other than Utley and Howard than they did in 2009, but they sure will in 2010 (if their payroll really is $140 million).
Finally, a payroll jump from $113 to $140 million would be a huge one for the Phillies. By total dollars the jump of about $27 million from the 2009 payroll would be the biggest for the team in more than 20 years. By percentage things get weirder — remember that the Phillies went to the World Series in 1993 with a payroll under $27 million. So things have changed. Still, $140 million is about 123.9% of $113 million, which would be the biggest percentage jump for the Phils since 2004. In 2003 the payroll was about $70.8 million. In 2004 it rose to about $93.2 million — the ‘04 payroll was about 131.7% of the ‘03 payroll after a jump of about $22.4 million.
This suggests that the Phillies might be offering JA Happ and one of Domonic Brown or Michael Taylor in a deal for Halladay. Really? I would be surprised if that happened.
The Phillies took 24-year-old right-handed pitcher David Herndon in the first round of the Rule 5 draft. John Sickels writes about him here. You can see the results of the Rule 5 draft here.
Pedro Feliz and Brandon Lyon will both be Astros.
Topics: Chase Utley, Ryan Howard |
December 11th, 2009 at 9:47 am
Herndon is eerily similar to Robert Mosebach, who was a Rule 5 draft pick from the Angels last year. Things didn’t work out too well there. I guess it’s worth a shot though. Apparently a Phillies scout was his pitching coach during the winter leagues and saw something he liked. Who knows?
I like the Gload signing, although it is hard to get too excited about filling out the bench. Still anxious to see what the ‘pen looks like.
I’m a little scared that the Phillies seem to think they have a 1-2 year window and are going to sell the farm to win it all. Although the loss of Happ won’t upset me too much as he doesn’t seem as good as he pitched last year, it is still important to have decent/cheap pitchers as your 4/5 starter instead of the Adam Eaton’s of the world. It seems like they are trading away all of their chips to try to win now instead of building to be competitive for years.
December 11th, 2009 at 10:13 am
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December 11th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
I don’t think the Phils are going to trade Happ plus Brown/Taylor plus something for Halladay. I don’t think they need a third big pitcher like that now — they need him at the end of the year. If we’re trading prospects for one year guys, let’s wait till the deadline and see who’s healthy and pitching well.
I share the worry that the Phils are getting older. Three years for Polanco doesn’t make things better on that front.
December 11th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
Agreeing with pretty much all the comments here. I’m optimistic as far as, right now, this management group has steered the Phils to three playoff berths and 2 World Series (1 win) in the last three seasons.
Whatever they’re cooking up, whatever my reservations, I’m inclined to give them a “wait-and-see” pass on.
I will cross my fingers. Maybe they get Halladay. Maybe they keep a decent farm system. Maybe they sell out every game this year and can get a better media deal to increase payroll further for next year. Maybe that can be used to get some sort of extension going with Lee and Halladay. Maybe I’m in the midst of a fever dream.
I’d really like to hear about genuinely exciting batting prospects in the system. All of these All-Stars being around the same age (and no longer spring chickens) is terrifying.
December 11th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
Roger…the two most genuinely exciting batting prospects in the system right now are Domonic Brown and Michael Taylor (which just so happens are the two guys that everybody wants in a trade…go figure!)
There are some other good prospects in the system, but they are much farther away from being impact players and therefore tougher to project. Anthony Gose for instance led all minor leaguers with 76 stolen bases this past year. He’s also only 18 and has a lot of areas to improve. The problem here, in my mind, is that everybody who is a decent hitting prospect is an outfielder. This may be why they feel comfortable trading one of Brown/Taylor, especially with the guys they currently have in Philly. There is pretty much nothing in the way of respectability when it comes to infielders. Lots of catchers and bullpen arms though, and then of course Kyle Drabek, who if you believe some folks can walk on water.
Anyway, I’m rambling about prospects. Check out the link to the Phuture Phillies site (that one and this one are the only two Phillies sites I regularly visit) for a ton more information.
Sorry Eric to suggest another site.
December 11th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
People here may know I’m not hot on Blanton. He seems like an average innings eater to me.
So while I would be disappointed if they traded Happ for Halladay, I would not be disappointed in the slightest if they traced Blanton to, say, Texas for a prospect or two that could be included in a Halladay deal.
The wild (Verducci) speculation is that the Phils are the frontrunners, and that they’re going to have to clear more payroll than Blanton’s to sign an extension. But what else could they do? Ask Howard & Utley for a donation? I don’t think there’s many bad contracts on this team.. (maybe Rollins if he stays in 2009 form
)
December 11th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
Phuture Phillies is definitely a great source for info on the Phillies minor leaguers.
I think Moyer might be the contract that the Phillies regret the most at this point. I don’t think there’s any chance he’s getting traded. Myers for more than $12 million last year wasn’t so hot.
December 11th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
Are you serious with this $/RC analysis? Howard and Utley have produced at an extremely high level since they broke into the Majors. Of course their salaires were lower at the beginning and would explode due to their performances, thus increasing the $/RC. Would you have rather had them perform mediocre to average so that thier $/RC decreased? Absurd!
You should be thankful that the Phillies still spent $87 million on other payers in 2009 after paying Utley and Howard. You are going to have to pay your talent big bucks, so be grateful it didn’t come at the expense of spending less on additional talent. Would you rather have lost these guys so that such a large percent of total payroll would not be locked into 2 players?
December 12th, 2009 at 9:33 am
I think the point is it’s much easier to build a team to support your superstars when they are making pre-arbitration pennies. Once you actually have to pay them what the market thinks their worth, then $’s that could be used elsewhere on the team must now be used to pay them.
I don’t believe it’s a commentary on the Phillies so much as the state of MLB in general.
December 12th, 2009 at 9:51 am
Thanks, Jim. It’s all of that, but the biggest point I wanted to make was that if the payroll goes to $140 million this year,\ the amount of money that the Phillies will be spending on players besides Utley and Howard will be going up, which wasn’t the case if you compare ‘06 and ‘09.
December 14th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
Wow…
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/roy-halladay-rumors-monday-1.html
Didnt see this line of thinking ever…
December 14th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
wtf?
December 14th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Sorry…I should’ve written more. I really didn’t see that line of thinking at all. But, I guess if an extension would be similar in cost, I could see them doing this. I don’t really know why they would though.
December 14th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
I was so flabbergasted at the report (from SI: Posted: Monday December 14, 2009 3:52PM; Updated: Monday December 14, 2009 3:52PM
Phillies reach deal to get Halladay, send Lee to Mariners
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/14/phillies.halladay.lee/index.html?eref=BrkNews#ixzz0ZhONl62o) that I even posted it in the wrong blog entry.
WTF was exactly my thought. I need to see the details of the deal, but it hardly seems like it was worth doing except to do Toronto a favor.
December 14th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
It seems pretty odd to me, too. At least unexpected.
Halladay is better (and more expensive) than Lee, so I guess that’s good. I was kind of getting used to having Lee, though.
December 14th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
Definitly unexpected is right. I am going to withold judgement until facts are out there though. I too was getting comfortable with Lee and hoping to add Halladay but was not thinking of a swap, thats for sure.
December 14th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Yeah, facts would be good.
Trading Lee for Halladay would make the Phillies better. Especially if they can get Halladay to sign a good extension that they couldn’t get Lee to sign. I think things are going to get curiouser if the Phils have to give up more than Lee or were to sign Halladay to a bad extension.