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The Placido effect
By egrissom | December 3, 2009
The Phillies have signed Placido Polanco to a three-year, $18 million contract. Polanco will play third for the Phils in 2010.
I think this is bad news for Phillies fans, but confused by the fact that Polanco is a very good baseball player. The problem is that he’s a good baseball player because he plays second base.
Here are some of the things that bother me about the idea of signing Polanco to play third base:
He’s not a third baseman. I don’t think there’s much of an argument there. Polanco has not appeared at third base in any of the past four years. On the plus side, he is a very good second baseman and has played more than 2,400 innings at third over his career, so it seems pretty likely he can give the Phillies good defense at third. I feel a little less sure about that than I would about someone who actually provided some team good defense at third over the past four years, though.
He was bad offensively last year and he’s 34-years-old. 285/331/396 last year. OPS+ of 88. In each of the past four seasons he’s gotten at least 495 plate appearances and in two of them he’s on-based .331 or worse.
Even for a 2B he wasn’t good offensively last year. Between the two leagues there were 37 players that got 200 or more plate appearances as a second baseman in 2009. The .730 OPS that Polanco put up while playing second base was 23rd-best. Third basemen should obviously be producing more offense than second basemen.
He doesn’t have the bat to be an everyday 3B. The chart below shows the average slugging percentages posted by NL 3B for each of the past four seasons and the slugging percentage that Polanco has put up. In just one of the four years did he put up a slugging percentage that was better than the average for the position in the NL. He got a ton of hits in those four years, too, going 690-for-2,246 (a .307 batting average):
Year |
NL Average SLG by 3B |
Polanco SLG |
2009 |
.416 |
.396 |
2008 |
.440 |
.417 |
2007 |
.456 |
.458 |
2006 |
.471 |
.364 |
He’s all average — he never, ever walks and doesn’t hit for power. He walks less regularly than Pedro Feliz. He did last year and he has over his career. As I wrote in this post, in a group of players that includes Feliz, Polanco, Crede, Beltre and Tejada, Polanco has been the least likely of any of them to draw a walk in a given plate appearance over their career.
His career rate of getting extra-base hits is miserable. It’s worse than new addition Brian Schneider, who is younger than Polanco and was recently signed to backup Ruiz, and a tiny bit better than ‘08 Phillie So Taguchi.
| Player | Career PA | Career XBH | XBH/100 PA |
| Schneider | 3,186 | 221 | 6.94 |
| Polanco | 6,017 | 399 | 6.63 |
| Taguchi | 1,524 | 100 | 6.56 |
He’s obviously way below the good hitters on the Phillies in terms of their chances to get an extra-base hit. Each of the eight Phillies regulars (including Feliz) got an extra-base hit in at least 7% of their plate appearances in 2009. Utley, Rollins, Werth and Ruiz were all in the nines while Howard and Ibanez were over 12.
This isn’t an addition that’s going to make the Phillies a lot worse. Again, Polanco is a good baseball player and it’s sure not his fault if the Phillies think he’s a third baseman. But it’s not a move that’s going to make them a lot better, either. They had one offensive position on the field where they had a chance to make themselves a lot better and they didn’t do it.
The article linked at the top of the page suggests that Polanco could hit second for the Phils. I think it may make more sense to keep Victorino in the two-hole and hit Polanco seventh after Ibanez and before Ruiz.
Chris Jaffe, who writes for The Hardball Times, has written a book called Evaluating Baseball’s Managers: A History and Analysis of Performance in the Major Leagues, 1876–2008. You can read an excerpt about Gene Mauch from the book at Crashburn Alley.
Topics: It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine |
December 3rd, 2009 at 3:51 pm
Ehhhhh. :/
I really like Polanco. I really, really do. I even drafted him on my fantasy baseball team last year as my utility guy (before getting a steal in picking up Aaron Hill off waivers…I won the championship because I’m awesome).
I don’t really like Polanco on the Phillies this year as a starting third-baseman. The good news on his stats is that he’s playing in the National League this year AND in Citizen’s Bank Park. The bad news is that, almost inevitably, he’s still getting older.
He will, just about invariably, hit for a higher average that Pedro Feliz this year. I really think the lineup is best-served keeping everyone where they are and just dropping him into Feliz’ 7-spot for now where he could conceivably knock in the guys who are most assuredly getting on in front of him. I DO think it’s an offensive upgrade, enough of one to probably make up for the defense lost with Feliz’ exit, but that’s not the point here. The opportunity existed to make a much better upgrade, relatively, and that opportunity wasn’t taken. I’m assuming Amaro’s budget limit is rather strict this year (for some reason).
That being said, Go Go Polanco. You’re in the National League this year in one of the best hitting ballparks in baseball with one of the best lineups in baseball. Have fun!
December 3rd, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Go go Polanco for sure.
I agree that he’s a lock to hit for a higher average than Feliz. I don’t think he’ll hit enough to be a good third baseman. I’d guess he’ll be good enough defensively, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Ehhhh, indeed.
December 3rd, 2009 at 5:40 pm
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December 3rd, 2009 at 8:10 pm
The Phils have made three moves so far. Castro replaces Bruntlett; Schneider replaces Bako; and now Polanco replaces. Each move represents a small improvement. If they make wise choices on the pitching side, the 2010 Phillies will be better than the 2009 version. So far, I’m satisfied, but not ecstatic.
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:41 pm
I feel sure that Castro in 2010 will be better than Bruntlett was in 2009. As bad as Bruntlett was in ‘09, I don’t feel sure that Bruntlett wouldn’t have been better in 2010 than Castro will be. I don’t think you have to get too good of a player to have someone better than both of them.
Agree that Schneider helps a team more than Bako as a backup.
I agree it’s likely that Polanco will be better than Feliz this year. Given the defensive question marks, I think it’s also possible that he will be worse overall. I don’t think it’s a no-brainer that the Phils are better off having signed Polanco to 3/18 than they would have been with Feliz for 1/5.5. Even if they are, there was huge room for improvement at the position and they didn’t improve hugely.
I don’t think the Phillies have made themselves that much better or worse than they were in ‘09. It’s a little hard to get worked up about the backup SS or C. I would definitely put myself in the disappointed category so far, though, just cause they could have gotten a lot better with those roster spots and didn’t. If they are really committed to playing Polanco at third for the next three seasons I think that’s a big mistake. They should be trying to get a lot more offense from the position.
December 4th, 2009 at 8:11 am
Although Rollins would never go for it, what about leading off Victorino, batting Polanco 2nd, and then Rollins 7th. I think that actually makes the most sense.
As for the actual signing, I’m not a fan. As everybody else has said, they had a chance to get a lot better and didn’t. Polanco seems like one of these guys the Phillies will be paying in three seasons to not play for them any more.
December 4th, 2009 at 8:57 am
I hadn’t thought of that one, but I agree it’s better. I don’t think there’s any chance it will happen cause there’s no way they’re going to hit Rollins seventh. No question it’s better if you’re replaying the ‘09 season already knowing what the players are going to do offensively — I think it’s a little harder when you don’t know what everyone is going to do this year. I will be very interested to see what happens with Rollins this year with the option coming up in 2011.
December 4th, 2009 at 10:03 am
I always liked Utley as a 2-hitter, honestly. Maybe it’s not the best place for him now because (in theory) he’d have to give himself up too often, but I always thought he was better at the job.
If we want to think out lineup shakeups, I’d redo the whole darn thing, and take a page out of LaRussa’s playbook:
1. Vic
2. Chase
3. Werth
4. Howard
5. Ibanez
6. Choooooch
7. Polanco
8. pitcher
9. Rollins
Follow the LaRussa convention of having the pitcher hit 8th, and the AL convention of having a speed guy at the bottom to help when the lineup turns over.
The only thing that looks funny to me there is having the 3rd baseman hit 7th. But - so did Feliz. You could swap him with Chooooch with similar results, but he seems poised for a really good offensive year, and it would be a shame to bury him in the lineup.
December 4th, 2009 at 10:21 am
I love hitting Utley second. I think the Phillies should do that. I don’t think they will.
Victorino hitting leadoff works for me, too.
Not a fan of Rollins ninth or Ruiz sixth, though. I think six is too high for Ruiz, who is still a .246 hitter for his career with a career-high in home runs of nine and is about to turn 31. I’d like to see Rollins getting more at-bats than he would hitting behind the pitcher.
December 4th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
I could also go
6. Rollins
7. Ruiz
8. pitcher
9. Polanco
Rollins does like to swing for power; it would be interesting to see him play as more of a gaps guy than an on-base guy, and he’d probably be better at it.
Polanco isn’t exactly a speed demon, but he is faster than, say, Ruiz. I don’t know if he could get home from first on a Victorino triple though.
December 4th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
Although I am not doing handsprings about the Polanco signing, it is funny how your perspective changes. When they brought up Utley to play 2B and traded Polanco to Detroit, I was angry! Not that they brought up Chase, but I felt at the time that we would be a better ball club with Chase at second and Polanco at third.
Leadoff Victorino and put Rollins in the 7 hole.
December 4th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
Who wouldn’t take Polanco over David Bell? Except Phillies management at that time!
December 4th, 2009 at 5:40 pm
I agree - Vic leadoff and Rollins 7th. Or give Rollins a month at leadoff to see if he can produce better numbers and then if not, drop him to 7th.
I heard from a Cardinal fan that one reason LaRussa was batting a non-pitcher 9th was that he wanted more runners on base for Pujols, who was batting 3rd. Doesn’t quite apply to the Phils.
In retrospect, trading Polanco turned out to be a bad deal, but I’m sure that management felt at the time that they had to give him up to get Urbina. And maybe they weren’t as willing then to eat contracts (Bell’s) as they became later on. Or maybe they were full from eating Thome’s leftover contract.
December 5th, 2009 at 10:06 am
@Phanatic - If I recall, the Phils asked Polanco if he would 3B for them, and he responded by requesting a trade. Although I don’t recall if the offer was to be the starter or to be a utility guy (who, Bell being Bell, would start 75% of games at 3B anyway).
@jayfest - Let’s say the Phils go ahead and bat Utley 2nd. Wouldn’t it be nice to have more guys on base for him after the 1st inning? (This assumes Rollins or Polanco can put up a better OBP than the pitcher in that spot. One big plus - you’re well protected.)
December 5th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
I have one major criticism with this article: the whole thing argument is based on comparing Polanco to other 3Bs and has almost nothing to do with his role on the Phils and how he will help the team. This matters because, while we could obviously use another big bat (who couldn’t?) we don’t need a slugger at 3B as much as other teams. This is because we have the best 2B slugger since…. ever? Yea, probably ever. Since we have a 3B-type batter at 2B, we could use a 2B-type hitter at 3B. Polanco has a great career BA and should be able to set the table for Utley-Howard-Werth-Ibanez when they come to eat.
Full disclosure, I was hoping for Beltre… but I can live with Polanco.
December 7th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
I think the question of whether Polanco is a good third baseman should be answered outside the context of the Phillies. It’s not that the context of the Phillies is irrelevant, I think it’s just much less important than the question of how good Polanco is overall compared to the other players that are available and other players at the position.
For me the answer is that Polanco doesn’t help as much as I would hope, for all the reasons I mentioned. I agree that not striking out and making a lot of contact is nice, but I would have been happier with even a left-handed hitter who struck out more and hit for more power.
December 8th, 2009 at 7:17 am
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