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Drop off location
By egrissom | December 3, 2009
Earlier this week I wrote that after leading the NL in runs allowed per nine innings by relievers in 2008, the Phils dropped to ninth in that category in 2009. Despite the big drop in 2009, opponents posted very similar batting lines against the Phillies relief pitchers in 2009 and 2008:
Year |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
2009 |
246 |
335 |
373 |
2008 |
251 |
333 |
371 |
Again, the ‘08 pen was a lot better than the ‘09 pen, but those numbers look very similar.
Curiously, you were more likely to get a hit or a walk against the ‘08 guys than you were the ‘09 guys.
In 2009, the Phillies pen faced 2,143 batters and allowed 457 hits (21.3% of batters) and 223 walks (10.4%). So about 31.7% of hitters got a hit or a walk. In 2008 the pen faced 2,071 hitters and allowed 456 hits (22.0%) and 211 walks (10.2%). About 32.2% of hitters got a hit or a walk against the ‘08 pen.
That’s a little perplexing because opponents posted a better on-base percentage in 2009 than they did in 2008. A big part of the explanation is that Phillies relievers hit a lot more batters in 2009 than they did in 2008 — they plunked 32 in ‘09 after hitting just 16 in ‘08.
You were also more likely to get an extra-base hit against the ‘08 pen than you were against the ‘09 pen.
The ‘09 pen allowed 134 extra-base hits to 2,143 hitters (6.25%) and the ‘08 pen allowed 136 extra-base hits to 2,071 hitters (6.57%).
It sure seems like you should get better if you improve the rate at which you allow hits or walks while you improve the rate at which you allow extra-bases. But the Phillies bullpen got worse.
A big part of this was how bad the extra-base hits that the Phillies gave up were in 2009. Despite the fact that they allowed fewer extra-base hits overall in 2009, the extra-base hits they allowed in 2009 did more damage.
In 2008, the Phillies pen allowed 136 extra-base hits — 92 doubles, seven triples and 37 home runs. That’s 353 total bases or 2.6 bases per extra-base hit.
In 2009 they allowed 134 extra-base hits — just 79 doubles, nine triples and 46 home runs. That’s a total of 369 total bases or 2.75 bases per extra-base hit. So a better rate of preventing extra-base hits in 2009, but the extra-base hits they allowed were worse.
The most important difference between the bullpen of 2008 and the bullpen of ‘09 was that the ‘08 pen was outstanding at preventing home runs compared to the rest of the league while the ‘09 pen was not. The ‘08 pen allowed 37 home runs, which was the fewest in the NL. In ‘09, only six NL teams allowed more home runs than the 46 that the Phils’ relievers gave up.
In ‘08, the Phillies had seven relief pitchers who threw 20 or more innings for the team. Of those seven, Tom Gordon allowed the most home runs per nine innings. He allowed three in 29 2/3 innings or about 0.91 per nine innings.
In 2009 there were nine Phillies pitchers who threw 20 or more innings in relief. Of those nine, four, Walker, Durbin, Taschner and Lidge, all allowed more than 0.91 home runs per nine innings while pitching in relief. Eyre was almost a fifth — he allowed 0.90 homers per nine innings.
The home run problem would have been a whole lot worse for the relievers were it not for Chan Ho Park. Park pitched 50 innings in relief for the Phillies in 2009 without allowing a home run. In 33 1/3 innings as a starter he gave up five. The Braves’ Peter Moylan was the only reliever in either league besides Park to throw 35 or more innings in relief in ‘09 without allowing a home run.
The charts below show the four Phillies pitchers that threw at least 20 innings in relief in each of the last two seasons and had the worst rates of allowing runs per nine innings pitched as a reliever on the team. For each of the pitchers it shows the number of innings the player threw in relief that year, the runs they allowed per nine innings and the home runs they allowed per nine innings:
2008 |
|||
| Player | IP | Runs/9 | HR/9 |
| Durbin | 87 2/3 | 3.4 | 0.51 |
| Condrey | 69 | 3.4 | 0.78 |
| Seanez | 43 1/3 | 5.0 | 0.42 |
| Gordon | 29 2/3 | 5.8 | 0.91 |
2009 |
|||
| Player | IP | Runs/9 | HR/9 |
| Condrey | 42 | 3.6 | 0.86 |
| Durbin | 69 2/3 | 4.9 | 1.03 |
| Taschner | 29 1/3 | 5.5 | 0.92 |
| Lidge | 58 2/3 | 7.8 | 1.69 |
The biggest thing about that list is that the guys at the top who were the worst among the 2008 pen in terms of runs allowed per nine innings were pretty good. Durbin was great in ‘08, throwing to 2.87 ERA with a 1.32 ratio and allowing just five home runs in nearly 90 innings. Condrey wasn’t quite as good, but threw to a 3.26 ERA with a 1.51 ratio. He also was pretty good at keeping the ball in the yard, allowing 0.78 homers per nine in a season when the average NL reliever allowed about 0.96.
In 2008, the Phillies had just two relievers who threw more than 20 innings for the season and allowed more than 3.4 runs per nine innings for the season. Those two, Seanez and Gordon, combined to throw 73 innings. In 2009 the Phils had four relievers who threw more than 20 innings and allowed more than 3.4 runs per inning and those four combined to throw 199 2/3 innings.
This says that the Phillies talks with Polanco are getting serious. I think it would be pretty bad news if the Phillies signed Polanco to be their third baseman.
This suggests the Phillies could have interest in John Smoltz. Please no.
The Phillies did not offer arbitration to Park or Eyre. I think both of those guys still have a chance to be back next year.
Billy Wagner is a Brave.
The Phillies signed Brian Schneider to be Ruiz’s backup.
Topics: Bullpen |
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:07 am
Good stuff. Surprising numbers from the bullpen comparison.
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:34 am
Yeah, very surprising. It sure seemed like the pen was drastically worse last year, but I guess they just did a better job of “scattering hits” in 2008 than in 2009.
On the one-liners…I agree that Polanco would be a bad idea. Not an improvment over Feliz.
I think it was a mistake not to offer Park arbitration just because they could’ve gotten a draft-pick out of it. I guess we’ll see based upon where he signs and what he signs for if it really was a mistake or not.
Wagner seems to be making his way through the NL East. Next year he’ll be in Washington I guess. It’ll be a few years until he gets to Florida.
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:35 am
I’m not sure I have a serious objection to Polanco at 3B. Way back when we first offloaded him, I would have preferred that he simply move over to make room for Utley. He wasn’t interested then; not sure why he is now, but I’m ok with that.
Besides, if the defense is suspect, we can always pull him for Castro in the 7th!
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:40 am
Its funny b/c I honestly forgot Gordon was on the team in ‘08. It seems so long ago…
I think the Phils could do better than Polanco at third was well. I saw some reports they were offering around 10 million for 2 years or close to that. I honestly dont know how true it is but it is what i saw. I find spending that money on a guy who needs to change posititon (whether he wants to or not) seems a bit higher of risk than spending that money on a guy who plays third. If I remember correctly, Polanco wasnt to thrilled to play third when he left in ‘06 and was part of the reason he did indeed leave. I’m not saying he wont be a good 3B and be happy at 3B but I think there are better canidates available to fill the void.
Ditto on Smoltz. Would not be crazy about signing him either.
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:50 am
Polanco is all average, never walks and hasn’t made an appearance at third in the last four years. I think he’s a bad choice to be the third baseman.
Three years, $18 million like this says the Phillies are about to do would be disappointing.
http://zozone.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/12/polanco_close_to_three-year_de.html
I think the Phils have had a bad off-season already, but it hasn’t mattered much. That would make it a lot worse, cause I don’t think Polanco is the way to go at third.
There’s a lot of reasons that Smoltz doesn’t appeal to me. Among them are the 6.35 ERA from last year.
I think it was definitely the right decision not to offer Eyre arbitration if he’s not going to pitch for a team besides the Phillies. Cause you weren’t going to get a pick anyway. Park is harder and I’m torn. Given how well he pitched in relief last year I think he would have gotten a big raise. It sounds like he still wants to start, too.
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:56 am
I thought the whole point of keeping Gillick as an adviser was so Amaro could say, “Hey, is what I’m doing stupid?” and for Gillick to then nod or shake his head.
It seems like the Phils are trying for some sort of nightmarish Turn Back the Clock promotion only instead of powder blue uniforms we’re getting managerial decisions from the late ’90’s.
Worst Turn Back the Clock promotion EVER.
December 3rd, 2009 at 11:56 am
It sure sounds like this is going to happen. I think it’s pretty bad.
Assuming that Polanco can play third I don’t think it makes the Phillies too much worse. I do think that it is a huge missed opportunity to make the team better — it was pretty much the only place where they could upgrade the offense and they didn’t do it.
December 3rd, 2009 at 11:59 am
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December 3rd, 2009 at 1:40 pm
The “still wanting to start” part is why I think it was a bad idea for the Phils to NOT offer him arbitration. I think he would go someplace that would let him start, even if it were less money and less chance to win. So, if you think he’s going someplace else, then offer him arbitration and take the draft pick!
December 3rd, 2009 at 2:10 pm
Seems like the Polanco deal is done so lets dig in a bit… Like you said Eric, this move does not make the Phils worse by any means, but it defintily does not make them much better which could of happened with other FA’s, possibly. Anyways, when ‘Polly’ was here, I did always like the way he played the game and that seems to fit with this group of Phils real well. He also will be able to give Utley a spell and maybe get Dobbs some more at bats which I think he had to few of last year. Seems like the idea is that he will be batting 2nd. I guess Victorino drops to 7th? Not sure what to think of this. Overall, i give this move a very big blah and lets see what else is in the works…
I am surprised this happened so fast too. Its not like any of the other 3B gusy were flying off the market like hot cakes.
December 3rd, 2009 at 2:33 pm
I think on Park the risk there is you get stuck paying a guy who wants to start a lot of money to relieve. I don’t know how big a raise he would have gotten, but I think it might have been pretty significant. He was really fantastic as a reliever — 2.52 ERA with a 1.18 ratio.
On Bill’s Polanco point I think he’s right it maybe goes Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Victorino, Ruiz if those are the eight players they have. I can’t imagine that Victorino would like hitting seventh.
I think it might make more sense to go Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Polanco, Ruiz. We’ll have to wait and see. That seems better than Victorino seventh.
I also think Bill’s point about how fast this Polanco thing seems to have happened is a good one — it seems like there are still a lot of 3B options out there, so Polanco must have been the guy the Phils really wanted.