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We want a pitcher (or maybe three)
By egrissom | December 1, 2009
Juan Castro or not, the Phillies are going to score a whole bunch of runs in 2010. The Phils have led the NL in runs scored in three of the last four seasons.
The season of the last four when they didn’t lead the league in runs scored, 2008, they won the World Series. So if you’re thinking what the Phils need to do to improve their team overall has a lot more to do with pitching than hitting (and exactly nothing to do with getting guys who on-base .270 to take up roster spots to firm up the defense), I agree with you.
The Phillies were worse at preventing runs in 2009 than they were in 2008. Here’s the rates at which they allowed runs per nine innings, the NL average and the Phillies’ rank for each of the last two years:
| Year | Runs per 9 IP |
NL AVG | NL Rank |
| 2009 | 4.38 | 4.53 | 6 |
| 2008 | 4.22 | 4.66 | 3 |
On average, NL teams allowed fewer runs per game in 2009 than they did in 2008. The Phillies allowed more and also saw their rank in runs allowed per nine innings drop from third to sixth. In 2009 the Phils allowed about 96.7% of the runs per nine innings as the average NL team. In 2008 they had allowed about 90.6%.
So they got worse.
Their starters didn’t get worse, though. In 2009 their starters threw 963 2/3 innings and allowed 477 runs. That’s about 4.45 runs per nine innings pitched. In 2008 their starters threw 966 2/3 innings and were charged with 489 runs — about 4.55 runs per nine innings.
Here’s how the numbers looked for the relievers:
| Year | Runs per 9 IP |
NL AVG | NL Rank |
| 2009 | 4.24 | 4.35 | 9 |
| 2008 | 3.56 | 4.47 | 1 |
Not so good. The Phillies rate of allowing runs per nine innings was better than the league average, but they were just ninth among the 16 NL teams and near the league average. A year before the Phils won the World Series with the league’s dominant bullpen, allowing nearly a run per nine innings less than the average NL team. The 3.56 runs allowed per nine innings for the Phils’ pen in ‘08 was outstanding — the Brewers had the third-best rate for the NL in 2008 and their relievers allowed 4.27 runs per nine (Milwaukee allowed more than half a run more per nine innings and still had the pen that allowed the third-fewest runs per nine innings).
So what exactly went wrong for the Phillies pen in 2009? As tempting as it may be to say it was all Brad Lidge, there’s more to it than that. In 2008, opponents hit 251/333/371 against the Phillies relievers. In ‘09 they hit a very similar 246/335/373. In 2009 you were less likely to reach base on a hit or a walk against the Phillies relievers than you were in 2008 (a little more likely to get a walk and less likely to get a hit for a combined total of less likely). You were also less likely to get an extra-base hit. They allowed a lot more runs, though, and were a lot worse compared to the other teams in their league. So something was going on. More on that soon.
This suggests that Scott Mathieson could help the Phillies next year.
Today is the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their players who are eligible. For the Phillies, that includes Condrey, Durbin, Blanton, Ruiz, and Victorino.
It looks like Chris Coste will be a Met.
Topics: pitching |
December 1st, 2009 at 9:47 am
Coste going to the Mets makes me very sad, and slightly sick to my stomach.
I too believe Mathieson could be a big help in the pen next year. His days as a starter are over after three major arm surgeries.
Speaking of arm surgeries…I had a crazy thought while reading about some of the available free agents. What about Ben Sheets? He seems like a high risk/high reward kind of guy, and if the Phillies sign him to be the 5th starter and only expect him to be in that role, he could really help and step up to be that dominant third starter. I know this post is mostly about the pen, but Sheets I think a Sheets signing would be awesome (and probably relatively cheap).
December 1st, 2009 at 9:50 am
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December 1st, 2009 at 10:13 am
I would be thrilled to get Sheets. I agree it would be a high risk move and one that’s unlikely. I think it would be a big investment for the Phillies and they are a little more likely to focus on guys they can count on to be solid. I don’t think he’s going to come cheap unless people don’t think he’s someone you should be counting on (which would be a bad sign).
I’d love to see Mathieson help this year, too. I think there’s certainly a chance, but again I don’t think he’s a guy you want to count on for 2010. He is someone who seems like he could pleasantly surprise.
December 1st, 2009 at 10:34 am
Probably the wrong column to ask this..
but isn’t there some danger in overanalyzing this? The 2009 team had 1 more regular season win, and 2 fewer postseason wins, than the 2008 team. Sure there’s some areas it would be nice to improve, but there’s a fair amount of “do what you did last year and try not to have bad days at the exact wrong time” too.
December 1st, 2009 at 11:07 am
[…] http://www.philliesflow.com/2009/12/01/we-want-a-pitcher-or-maybe-three/The 3.56 runs allowed per nine innings for the Phils’ pen in ‘08 was outstanding — the Brewers had the third-best rate for the NL in 2008 and their relievers allowed 4.27 runs per nine (Milwaukee allowed more than half a run more per … […]
December 1st, 2009 at 11:18 am
Yes. I think you have a point. The Phillies are very, very good.
I don’t think they’re the best team in baseball, though. I think they lost to a team that was better than them both on paper and on the field. I think they should be trying to become the best team on paper they can and then see what happens on the field. Not to say what happens on the field can’t surprise you — it often does. But I’d feel a lot better about their chances if I felt sure they were better than the team they were playing. To do that I think they’re going to need to improve some.
Like you say, they could have won the World Series last year with a few good days when they had bad ones. But I think they need to get better, too, even if they were the best team in baseball.
December 1st, 2009 at 11:31 am
I’d like to see them consistently play well. Throughout the regular season it was pretty hard to argue the case that the Phillies might just be the best team in the National League. Once the playoffs rolled around, even with a couple late comebacks necessary, it seemed pretty clear they WERE the best team in the National League.
That’s all besides the point, however. The Phillies, for all their problems drumming up run support for Pedro Martinez, seemed to have little problems scoring runs in the playoffs, generally. They were tied late in a game against the Yankees that Brad Lidge lost. If they eke out a run there INSTEAD of giving up three, you’re looking at a Game 7 against the team that was clearly the best team in the Majors in 2009.
That’s a ludicrously small sample size to base any conclusions on but I think it also serves as a microcosm to the season in general.
No, Brad Lidge wasn’t the sole reason the Phillies didn’t repeat as World Champions. However, a perfect Brad Lidge in 2009 would have put the Phils around 105 wins (assuming the save opportunities that went to others late in the year would have went to him instead).
That’s a REALLY good record, and perhaps a closer approximation to how good the Phillies “are” if by “are” I mean “would be if the bullpen didn’t fail at the absolute worst times imaginable.”
Coste is dead to me. Chooch 4 Lyfe.
December 1st, 2009 at 12:21 pm
No more Paul Hoooooooooover?
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/Phillies_sign_C_Brian_Schneider.html
December 1st, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Ugh. Goodness. Let’s hope Chooch has a long lyfe.
December 1st, 2009 at 12:57 pm
I always liked Schneider and now, looking at his stats, I’m wondering why. Does he have good splits against the Phillies or something?
December 1st, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Nevermind, found ‘em (unofficially).
“In 108 games against the Phillies, he hit .273 with 54 RBIs and 42 walks. His walk, RBI and total bases (139) totals are the most against any opponent.”
If those are your best totals against ANY opponent, you’re pretty crappy, even for a catcher. The worse news is that he’s played 108 games against the Phillies. That’s well over half a season’s worth of games against just one opponent which I guess means he’s played a lot of games. Catchers don’t tend to hold up well after doing that sort of thing. I think it’s real weird that the Phils are backing up defensively-oriented players with defensively-oriented players.
That Amaro is crazy like a fox I tell you.
December 1st, 2009 at 1:21 pm
I don’t mind Schneider as a back-up catcher. You could do a lot worse. I also think that if Ruiz stays healthy next year, he’s going to have a surprising offensive season. If he isn’t healthy, the team is in trouble no matter who they sign to be the back-up catcher (because good catchers start for teams!)
December 1st, 2009 at 1:22 pm
On Sheets…I would’ve thought that he’d sign a heavily incentive-laden deal after being away from the game for a year.
December 1st, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Its tough for me to hate this move. I went to high school with Schneider and always hoped he would play for the Phils one day after he went pro. I know, I know, I’m a huge homer here…
December 1st, 2009 at 1:54 pm
He does have monster numbers against the Phils. 273/354/412. I don’t think this move is awful. It’s hard to get too excited about, but Schneider as a backup doesn’t seem like it’s terrible. I would be disappointed if the Phillies were getting him to start, but he can definitely play defense and maybe he’s got some Citizens Bank Park magic in his bat.
Between Schneider and Ruiz you at least have one lefty and one righty.
I do kinda wish the Phils could get Ronny Paulino back, but I don’t think that’s going to happen.
I think Sheets is going to get a pretty big contract. We’ll see, though. It sure seems like he’s worth the risk if he doesn’t cost too much.
December 1st, 2009 at 4:16 pm
[…] http://www.philliesflow.com/2009/12/01/we-want-a-pitcher-or-maybe-three/The 3.56 runs allowed per nine innings for the Phils’ pen in ‘08 was outstanding — the Brewers had the third-best rate for the NL in 2008 and their relievers allowed 4.27 runs per nine (Milwaukee allowed more than half a run more per … […]
December 2nd, 2009 at 7:09 pm
Part of that is home ballpark don’t you think? That being said, yes getting some more pitching is going to be a good thing. Unfortunately if I’m Sheets or Harden, I’d rather pitch almost anywhere else other then Philly, not because of the town, but the park….especially if I’m only there one year.
December 2nd, 2009 at 7:11 pm
Yes, pitching. We have one more year with the current lineup that gives us a shot at winning the Series. Hamels has an amazing arm, but still has only two pitches; for a starter, that is not near enough. One wonders about his heart as well; his gestures at Utley’s miscue this past year are enough to show that he needs everything to go perfectly. He rattles and folds otherwise.
Further, the latest bogus financial cries from the Phillies front office about salaries means that we have Lee for only one more year. 2011 will be a huge drop off for us.
What to do? Trade Hamels for Halliday NOW. Next year is everything. With this lineup, and a Lee/Halliday one two punch, we can meet and beat the Yankees next year in the Series. If Halliday goes to the Yankees, we will not be winning any more World Championships for the forseeable future. Do it now. Win next year. Everything depends upon our getting Halliday.
December 2nd, 2009 at 8:21 pm
I definitely agree the Phillies should be trying to win now. I also agree they need another huge starter and should be willing to trade just about anyone to do it. I’ll be really surprised if they trade Hamels, though. I think they might try to add some pitching in a deadline deal — I don’t think they need another big starter to get into the playoffs, just to win once they do.
I can see why CBP wouldn’t be a big draw for a free agent pitcher. I think that may be countered by the chance to win a lot of games and play in the post-season for some pitchers. I’m not sure the Phils are going to have as much money as some other teams to sign a big name guy with a big contract, though, so that might be a big factor as well.
December 3rd, 2009 at 5:33 pm
I hear you about CBP. But the level of pitching we need is the level of Cliff Lee. Lee can pitch at CBP; he is afraid of nothing. So can any genuine “horse”, like Halliday. For Halliday, it would be one year and gone, probably. But he and Lee and the current lineup would leave behind a second World Championship in 2010. Halliday is not afraid of CBP. But he does want a ring. And he wants to be the guy who delivered it. I bet he’d kill to come here.
I would offer Hamels simply because he is a serious offer for a serious pitcher in return. And I offer Hamels, frankly, because I have serious questions about his head; his wife may well have more steel in her spine than he does. He actually seems to be cowed by pitching in the daylight. I simply do not ever see him becoming the horse he has to become in order for us to NOT trade him for Halliday. For two years Hamels’ stats do not compare well to a 45 year old team mate. Hamels is not the guy we need.
I accept that 2011 is going to be a rebuilding year, like as not. I do not accept that preparing for 2010 should have ANY limits. THAT is when we win the next title.
The notion that the Phillies are hurting for money for 2010 makes me crazy. There have been two World Series and a sold out park in 2009. I just renewed my season tickets for a 5% increase, and I did so with absolutely no hesitancy. There will be a sold out park in 2010. If the Phillies think they do not have enough money to do what they need to do to beat the Yankees in 2010, then they should have raised ticket prices 10%. If they do not have enough money then, the owners need to sell the team to someone with the resources to win.
Contrary to what one of the current owners said a few years back, Philly is NOT a “small market team”. We fans respond when the owners do everything possible to win. We have proved that. We ask only that the Phillies give their team what is available and necessary to win.
The time is now. The time to win is now. THIS moment in time can not be lost because of an unwritten salary cap.
Hamels for Halliday? No brainer. We need another horse. We cannot win the Series in 2010 without another horse. For the Phillies, getting a Halliday to pitch in front of this lineup is something that cannot yield to any other consideration for a team management that wants to win. Not in 2010. Not when the moment is NOW.
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:59 pm
Good point about Philly not being a small market. I don’t think this is the time to be trying to save money or prospects. Like you say, they gotta go now.
The question about rebuilding in 2011 is interesting. I’m not resigned to that yet. They have a club option to bring Rollins back in ‘11, which doesn’t look good if Rollins puts up another OBP under .300 but might if he doesn’t. If Werth’s ‘10 looks like his ‘09 I don’t think the Phils will be able to afford him in ‘11, but I would be disappointed if there was a huge dropoff for the team.
I think the Phillies could get Halladay without trading Hamels if they wanted him. It would cost a lot, but I think the Phils would be more likely to trade the big names in the minor leagues to get pitching than they would be to trade Hamels.
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:33 pm
I agree with the last paragraph completely. It would cost a lot. The cost would be paid with our top minor leaguers, I assume. Of course, if I am right about the ‘11 rebuilding event, those minor leaguers are the players we will need for that rebuilding. Hamels would represent less of a loss than the constellation of minor leaguers we would lose; he would bring more as trade value for Halladay.
They ARE in love with Hamels, apparently, so I imagine he will be here. I just have visions of Geary dancing in my head. I would hate to give up our minor league guys if trading Hamels would yield a free agent horse.
It will be fun to watch Werth next year, will it not! Can he challenge Howard for the HR lead? What fun. I wonder though, if Rollins will not be picked up, now that Figgins is clearly not in our future.
God I love this game.
December 4th, 2009 at 9:08 am
Yeah, it’s pretty good, isn’t it?
I think fans would flip out if the Phils give up for 2011 when they still have Utley and Howard in their prime. It will be tough and interesting to see how they deal with the potential of losing Rollins and Werth and Lee, but I’m going to be really disappointed if they don’t try to put a team on the field that they think can go to the playoffs.
We’ll see. Unbelievable year for Werth in 2009. Looking forward to seeing his 2010.