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Division of labor
By egrissom | November 24, 2009
Trying to guess who the Phillies might have playing third base next year is kinda fun, but what kind of year the Phils have in 2010 is going to have a lot more to do with what they can do to improve their pitching this off-season.
In 2009 the Phillies used 22 pitchers. They combined to throw 1,455 2/3 innings and allow 709 runs.
Ten of the 22 pitchers that the Phillies used had a percentage of the team’s 1,455 2/3 innings that they threw that was higher than their percentage of the team’s 709 runs that they allowed.
They are in the chart below. For each of the ten there are columns for the percentage of the team’s innings that they pitched, the percentage of the team’s runs that they allowed, the percentage of the runs allowed over the percentage of the innings pitched and the rank of that column compared to the other players in this group. The list is ordered by the number of innings that the player threw for the Phils in 2009.
| % of IP |
% of Runs allowed |
Runs Allowed/IP |
Rank for group |
|
| Blanton | 13.4 | 12.6 | 0.94 | 10 |
| Happ | 11.4 | 7.8 | 0.68 | 2 |
| Lee | 5.5 | 4.9 | 0.90 | 9 |
| Madson | 5.3 | 4.1 | 0.77 | 5 |
| Martinez | 3.1 | 2.5 | 0.83 | 6 |
| Condrey | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.83 | 7 |
| Walker | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.70 | 3 |
| Eyre | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.41 | 1 |
| Kendrick | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.86 | 8 |
| Romero | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.74 | 4 |
So, for example, Joe Blanton threw about 13.4% of the Phillies innings this season and allowed about 12.6% of the runs. 12.6 over 13.4 is 0.94, which is tenth best among the ten players who allowed a percentage of runs that was lower than the percentage of innings they pitched.
Please note that the rounding of the two percentage columns makes the math look wrong. For example, Eyre’s row shows 2.1 and 0.8, but .8 over 2.1 equals about 0.38 and not 0.41 — that’s cause the numbers are really 2.061 and 0.846 and not 2.1 and .8.
When you look at the difference between the percentage of the runs allowed and percentage of innings pitched it’s important to take into account the number of innings pitched. Eyre had the most dramatic difference between the two numbers, but Blanton was a lot more important to the team despite the worse difference since he threw more than six times as many innings as Eyre.
There were 12 pitchers for the Phils this year who allowed a percentage of the team’s runs that was higher than the percentage of the teams’ innings that pitcher threw. Here are the 12, using the same categories as above (the ranking continues from where the top list left off):
| % of IP |
% of Runs allowed |
Runs Allowed/IP |
Rank for team |
|
| Hamels | 13.3 | 13.4 | 1.01 | 11 |
| Moyer | 11.1 | 12.8 | 1.15 | 17 |
| Park | 5.7 | 6.1 | 1.06 | 14 |
| Myers | 4.9 | 5.4 | 1.10 | 15 |
| Durbin | 4.8 | 5.4 | 1.12 | 16 |
| Lidge | 4.0 | 7.2 | 1.78 | 21 |
| Lopez | 2.1 | 3.4 | 1.64 | 20 |
| Taschner | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.26 | 18 |
| Bastardo | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.56 | 19 |
| Escalona | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.05 | 13 |
| Carpenter | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.54 | 22 |
| Register | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.03 | 12 |
Again, the number of innings that the pitcher threw is critical. Andrew Carpenter was miserable compared to the rest of the group, but he only threw 5 2/3 innings. Guys who threw more innings, like Lidge and Moyer especially, obviously hurt the Phils more.
Article here about what some Phillies prospects have been doing in the AFL and winter leagues. If you don’t know who Sebastian Valle is it might be time to find out.
It sure seems like there’s a big opportunity for Mayberry these days. He’s hitting 314/390/521 in Mexico with seven home runs in 121 at-bats. It wasn’t a great year from him at Triple-A, but it’s nice to see him taking more walks in 2009 than he did in ‘08 or ‘07 — take a look at his minor league numbers.
Topics: pitching |
November 24th, 2009 at 10:16 am
Yes, Valle is an exciting prospect. He’s only 19 years old and playing against competition right now that is essentially between AA/AAA. He absolutely tore up the New York/Penn League this year too. The question is if he’ll stick at catcher. The Phillies have a lot of catching, outfield, and pitching depth in the minors. Absolutely nothing on the infield.
November 24th, 2009 at 10:18 am
Forgot to finish my thoughts:
On to the main point of the post, which was the pitching this year. This post just adds to my frustration as to why Blanton didn’t get more innings in the playoffs. One could reasonably argue he was the most consistent starter all season long. I’m not nearly as upset about the usage patterns of Happ because he seemed to hit a wall at the end. But Blanton is paid to be a horse, and he should’ve been given more innings.
Rant complete.
November 24th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Perhaps it’s just the sample size, but is anyone else surprised that Kendrick places higher than Lee on that list? My memory of the season is off Kendrick being a run-producing machine and Lee being a zero-producing machine.
I hope Eyre comes back for another year, and continues to produce. He & Romero are a fantastic lefty tandem. Of course, you need less out of lefties in the bullpen when you have Lee, a functioning Hamels (who didn’t do as badly as thought either, merely “average”), and Happ (who I would be greatly pleased if he did not have a sophomore slump).
November 24th, 2009 at 10:40 am
Greg, based on those results, who would Blanton’s innings have come at the expense of?
Our W.S. starters and their rank from the chart above:
1. Lee - 9th
2. Pedro - 6th
3. Hamels - 11th
4. Blanton - 10th
I think your only choice would have been to bench last year’s W.S. MVP, and that’s not a move most managers, let alone Charlie, would make.
November 24th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
I don’t know much about Valle, but it seems to me that whenever you hear someone wondering if a catching prospect can stick at the position it turns out that he can’t.
I’m with Greg on the Blanton rant. I think that Pedro got post-season starts that should have gone to Blanton and it cost the Phils.
I don’t think you’re going to get an argument from anyone that Kendrick was better than Lee last season. That would be a little silly. Five of the 35 runs that Lee allowed were unearned, though, which is a lot. Blanton, Happ, Hamels and Moyer combined to allow six unearned runs in 717 while Lee allowed five in 79 2/3 innings with the Phils. So Lee does a little better when you’re looking at earned runs rather than runs. When you’re looking at runs, Kendrick allowed fewer per nine innings than Lee. Kendrick allowed 11 runs in 26 1/3 innings (3.76 per nine) while Lee allowed 35 in 79 2/3 innings (3.95).
November 24th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
Lee was other-worldly in the post-season, everyone else was very much worldly. I agree that you couldn’t have removed Hamels from the rotation, but I think you could’ve possibly done better if you arrange your post-season starters like this:
Lee/Blanton/Hamels/Martinez
Just my opinion Jim. Of course, if the Phillies had won games 6 and 7, I wouldn’t have been complaining at all.
November 24th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
On Valle…the question of whether or not he will stick at catcher mostly has to do with his size (very small, but still only 19) and the fact that they have Travis d’Arnaud (age 20) also at catcher who at this point is a much better prospect.
November 24th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
I think Lee/Hamels/Blanton was the way to go in the post-season. Like Greg, I don’t know what I would have thought if the Phils hadn’t lost all three games that Pedro started.
I’m all for Sebastian Valle being great. In addition to tearing up the NY/P league, though, he also hit 223/313/331 at Single-A. So let’s not put him in the Hall of Fame, yet. Travis D’Arnaud, on the other hand, seems sure to be the greatest catcher of his generation (that’s a joke — I have no idea, but would guess probably not the greatest catcher of his generation).
November 25th, 2009 at 8:18 am
I hope you don’t get the impression that I think these guys are going to be Hall of Famers or anything. I think D’Arnaud grades out as a likely above average MLB catcher, kinda like Ruiz but with (hopefully) more power. Maybe even make an All-Star game or three. Valle will likely be a bit below that.
Of course, I’m no better at predicting the future than the next guy.
November 25th, 2009 at 9:18 am
Yeah, I know what you mean. Trevor May is the only guy I’m sure is going to the Hall of Fame.
November 25th, 2009 at 9:27 am
Catching & starting pitching in the same thread makes for a lot of jumping (tossing?) around!
Back to the pitching.. if I recall, we also lost Blanton’s start. So I’m not convinced much would have turned out differently. I’ve always thought of Blanton as an average innings-eater, not a superstar zero-machine, and the numbers in the post bear that out.
If anything, a stronger case could be made for giving Happ more chances.. although he was used so sparingly, I don’t even remember what he did with the time he had.
November 25th, 2009 at 11:18 am
I agree. Happ more in the playoffs as a starter would have gone a long way. I foresee him taking a Kendrick-esque step back this year but he’s still new to AL batters and I think that could have proven invaluable.
In Pedro’s playoffs starts, if I remember right, the Phils didn’t exactly knock the cover off the ball in support. I think the only starter who was being run out there that might have had a shot at winning those games was the guy that won all his games anyway, namely Lee.
November 25th, 2009 at 11:20 am
Happ wasn’t pitching very well in the post-season. He got one start against the Rockies in the NLDS but was mostly miserable in the playoffs. In 6 1/3 innings he threw to a 5.68 ERA and a 2.21 ratio.
I think the Phillies probably would have lost the World Series anyway if they had used Blanton more and Pedro less. I think it was a mistake anyway.
November 25th, 2009 at 11:28 am
The Phillies scored five runs in the three playoff starts for Pedro. Pedro threw to a 3.71 ERA with an 0.88 ERA in those starts. Still think that Manuel over-estimated what Pedro could do for the team and it cost the Phillies.
I don’t feel quite so worried about a big dropoff for Happ. I don’t think he’ll be as good in ‘10 as he was in ‘09, but I thin he’ll be able to help a lot.
November 25th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
It’s numbers like that, though, that really intrigue me as to what Pedro can do as a #5 over the course of a season. Keep him (relatively) rested and healthy and I think he can still wreak a lot of havoc on NL lineups. Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Martinez would be a rotation I’d be incredibly comfortable with.
November 25th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
I agree. Pedro can help the Phillies get into the post-season. I think they need three starting pitchers than can help them win in the post-season. They have two right now — Lee and Hamels. Given who they currently have on the team I think Blanton is the best bet for #3. I think they can make it to the playoffs without a big third guy. I think they’re going to need to add one (or get a huge post-season performance from Blanton or Happ or someone unexpected) if they want to beat the best teams in baseball and win the World Series.
November 25th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
I don’t see Pedro on this team next year. Moyer, Kendrick, and Drabek are all candidates to see some time as the #5 starter, and only one of those is Pedro’s age with similar innings ability. I just don’t see keeping two pitchers over 40 on the team.
Kendrick will probably see a fair amount of action in spring training - the 2009 numbers suggest he may be capable of recovering from his slump, but we have little idea if he can do so as a regular starter. Drabek is probably the first call-up when somebody on the pitching staff gets hurt, but probably does not start the season on the roster.
It’s also possible we’ll see a move (offseason or deadline) for a solid #3 - maybe a Randy Wolf, whom many Phils fans would love to see again (but probably isn’t the same pitcher they remember).
November 25th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
I don’t think Pedro will be on the team, but I think it would be a nice addition if he was.
I think Moyer and Kendrick get a lot of chances before Drabek if Moyer doesn’t retire. I’d be thrilled to see Wolf on the team, but I would also be very surprised. I think the Phils need to get through the regular season with the guys they have and try to add a big arm at the deadline. Now (near the end of this season) is definitely the time to trade whatever prospects you have to if it can land you a big arm.
December 3rd, 2009 at 6:23 am
Amazing as always