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The sixth nonsense
By egrissom | November 20, 2009
Charlie Manuel finished sixth in the voting for NL Manager of the Year. Sixth?
Moving on, here’s the rates some free agents who could fill the Phils need at third base tallied hits, walks, doubles and triples, home runs and extra-base hits per 100 plate appearances for their last season in which they got more than 450 plate appearances (2008 for Glaus and 2009 for everyone else):
| H/100 | BB/100 | 2B+3B/100 | HR/100 | XBH/100 | |
| Feliz | 24.6 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 7.0 |
| Tejada | 29.6 | 2.8 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 9.1 |
| DeRosa | 22.4 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 8.2 |
| Polanco | 26.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 6.7 |
| Beltre | 24.9 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 7.3 |
| Glaus | 23.1 | 13.7 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 9.6 |
| Figgins | 25.1 | 13.9 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 5.8 |
| Crede | 20.4 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 8.7 |
And here are the same numbers over their careers:
| H/100 | BB/100 | 2B+3B/100 | HR/100 | XBH/100 | |
| Feliz | 23.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 8.6 |
| Tejada | 26.4 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 9.1 |
| DeRosa | 24.4 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 7.8 |
| Polanco | 27.8 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 6.6 |
| Beltre | 24.7 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 9.1 |
| Glaus | 21.7 | 13.5 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 10.0 |
| Figgins | 25.6 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 5.7 |
| Crede | 23.3 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 9.0 |
Feliz is a very weak offensive player. He has never on-based over .308 for a season and has a .715 career OPS. Doesn’t walk, doesn’t hit for average and hasn’t hit more than 14 home runs in either of the last two seasons.
Tejada is a career .289 hitter and hit .313 for the Astros last year. He walked just 19 times in 673 plate appearances in ‘09. He does deliver a ton of extra-base hits. He’s hit 30 or more homers four times in his career, but just 27 in 1,339 plate appearances over the last two years. He’s not a third baseman, either. He may be in the future, but so far he has appeared at third in zero games over his 13-year career.
DeRosa comes off of a weak season in which he hit 250/319/433 for the Indians and Cards. His walk rate is good, better than everyone on the list except for Figgins and Glaus. Through his age 32 season his career high in home runs was 13. Over the past two years he has hit 21 and 23.
Polanco is the least likely member of this group to walk in a given plate appearance over his career and that’s saying something. Pedro Feliz is in this group. Joe Crede is in this group. Adrian Beltre is in this group. The .303 career average is impressive, though. He’s the worst power option in the group behind Figgins.
Beltre has on-based .330 or better in one of the last nine seasons. He does have some power, but he’s hit under .270 four of the last five years.
The problems with Glaus are that he had terrible injury problems last year and probably can’t play third base anymore. Everything else is just ducky. He’s the least likely of the group to deliver a hit or a double or triple, but he has monster rates for drawing walks and hitting home runs. He’s a career .255 hitter and a big right-handed bat that would look fantastic in the Phillies lineup, but if he really can’t play third base it’s going to make it tough to make him your third baseman.
Figgins walked 101 times last season, leading the American League. Second-best walk rate for his career of the group behind Glaus. Worst power numbers of the group by a lot. He just doesn’t homer. His rate of delivering doubles and triples is actually a little better than the rates for Glaus and Crede. He also has stolen 40 or more bases in four of the last five seasons.
Joe Crede hasn’t gotten 400 plate appearances in any of the past three seasons, so I’d be pretty surprised if the Phillies think he’s the guy to hand the third base job. He doesn’t hit for average or draw walks. He is right-handed and can hit some home runs — his home runs rate is second for the group behind Glaus. Career on-base percentage of .304.
I think the guys on the list that have close to no chance of being the player the Phils go after are Crede and Glaus. They are both the kind of player the Phillies need at third — a righty who can hit for power. I would be tempted to take a chance on Glaus if there’s any way he can play third. I don’t think the Phillies will.
Beltre, Tejada, Figgins and DeRosa all seem like they would be an upgrade over Feliz. I hope the Phillies do not consider Polanco to be a real option. I think it would be a big mistake to give him the third base job this year and it could reasonably be argued that Feliz would have been the better choice.
I still think there’s a good chance the Phils get their third baseman through a trade rather than a free agent signing.
Garrett Atkins has been told by the Rockies that he will not be released, but says he knows he will be with another team in 2010. Atkins comes of a miserable season in which he hit 226/308/342 and lost his job to Ian Stewart, but I would be quite pleased to see him as a Phillie. 289/354/457 career line. Hits lefties hard (301/384/486). And yes, he’s been better at Coors than away from it by a lot, but he still has hit more home runs away than he has at home for his career. Where do I sign?
Atkins is also a close friend and former college roommate of Chase Utley. I’m just saying.
Topics: Charlie Manuel, third base |
November 20th, 2009 at 9:27 am
Not happy with the NL manager vote. Bobby Cox ahead of Charlie? Seriously? I personally do not have a problem with Tracy winning it b/c he did a fine job with Col. I also think they should include the postseason in their vote. It is Manager of the YEAR right? All four managers of each club in the postseason finished in the top six and Charlie was last out of that group.
Nice write up today. I appreciate the look at all the ‘possible’ suspects in the 3 base market. I agree with you that Glaus does not have a good shot at ending up in Philly but his 08 numbers should would look nice in the lineup. I have this suspicion its going to end up being DeRosa and I do not know why. Might be b/c his name is always thrown out in stories. I wouldnt be upset with him but his year last year was down and is that a product of his age (35 in FEB I think) or was it just a down year/injury?
November 20th, 2009 at 9:33 am
I think DeRosa is the front-runner, too. It seems like the Phils have had their eye on him for a while.
DeRosa was pretty good for three straight years before this one. In 2009 he hit 23 home runs but saw his average drop and his walk rate drop. I don’t know what to expect from him this year, but I would be a little worried. I do think he could be counted on to put up better offensive numbers than Feliz without the great glove work.
I’d love to see the Phils try to get Atkins. I think the problem with that is that it’s risky and the Phils have so many bats it’s not clear they need to take a risk rather than just get someone they’re pretty sure they can depend on to be okay. I hope they give it a try anyway.
November 20th, 2009 at 10:11 am
Personally, I’d like to see them do both and sign DeRosa as your utility guy. I’m not sure he’d go anywhere that he isn’t guaranteed 400 AB’s though. He’d be a nice guy to have on your bench. I really can’t see that happening though.
After looking at this write-up, I really hope the team can pull off a trade.
November 20th, 2009 at 10:14 am
Thanks for the numbers, excellent write up. This is exactly what I wanted to see. Funny thing is, the only numbers that really stand out to me are the walks. Id love to see a patient hitter in that spot, to get on base before the big bats.
I don’t think much weight should be put on home runs since they have that need filled pretty well in that line up already.
I don’t know who we’ll end up seeing next season but I , like you guys have a feeling its going to be DeRosa. He seems to have Phillies written all over him. That and the fact that they went after him last year according to rumor and talked to him in 07 before deciding on Helms. I would be happy with DeRosa or Atkins. I have a good feeling about both. I think they’re the two that kill left handed pitching.
Charlie didn’t win manager of the year? Who cares, I’d take a pennant over that award any day. Tracy did do an excellent job and there were others that did well with little to work with. NL champs looks a lot better on the ol resume though.
November 20th, 2009 at 10:26 am
I’m with JustaJoe here. As such, I’d really like to see Figgins in a Phils uniform. Chone, Chase, Chooch, and Chimmy Rollins (heretoafter Che’ Roll) make one big happy family. Don’t fight it, Eric. Just let it happen.
When reality settles over me, I also agree that it will probably be DeRosa instead.
I think the Phillies winning the World Series last year and going back to it this year sours Charlie’s achievements in the minds of many as silly as that might seem. Kind of in a “of course they did well, they’re the Phillies” way. Nevermind that oodles and oodles of pundits had the Phillies basically losing in each round of the playoffs (again) this year. It’s hard to win Managerial awards when the perception is you’ve got the best club, talent-wise, in your respective league.
Also, who cares? I bet Charlie doesn’t. I’m sure he’ll get a big kick out of it when support is being drummed up for the skipper of the latest “Cindarella team makes playoffs” 2010 club that he beats in the first round again. No big deal.
Chone Figgins.
November 20th, 2009 at 11:03 am
I would be absolutely thrilled if the Phillies signed Mark DeRosa and then signed someone better than DeRosa to play third. I think the chances of that are near zero. DeRosa made $5.5 million last year, which is the same number as the Feliz option the Phillies just rejected.
I think just DeRosa instead of Feliz makes the team better offensively and worse defensively.
Figgins works for me, too.
I’d rather have Atkins that DeRosa by a pretty significant margin. Bigger upside but riskier. No idea what he would command in a trade, though, coming off a miserable year last year and given that the Rockies clearly don’t have room for him and look likely to make him a free agent in December.
November 20th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
Nobody expected Charlie to win. 2nd or 3rd would have been nice though. Perhaps if he had won the Allstar game, he’d get some respect. Apparently going 2-0 in consecutive NLCS’s and 1-1 in consecutive World Series’s doesn’t cut it.
I have to stay out of the 3rd base discussion - I’m of the opinion that they can drop a non-prospect from AA in there and get an upgrade over Feliz. Never did think he had any potential.
November 20th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
I wasn’t expecting Manuel to win. I think he’s a real good manager, though, and I think he deserved to finish higher than sixth.
I will officially record your vote for Terry Tiffee in the great third base debate.
On the non-joke front, 27-year-old Neil Sellers hit 317/383/486 at Double-A Reading this year. As this http://www.oursportscentral.com/services/releases/?id=3930571 press release says, “Sellers, 27, enjoyed a solid season at the plate for Reading in 2009. A native of Robards, KY., Sellers ripped an Eastern League best 164 hits and batted a solid.317. Sellers, who was taken by the Philadelphia Phillies in the December 2007 Rule 5 Draft, finished in the top five in the Eastern League in average, slugging percentage, doubles, on-base percentage, and extra base hits. Also solid with the leather, Sellers led all Easter League third baseman with a.961 fielding percentage.”
November 20th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Nothing like a Phillies Rule 5 Draft pick. Worked rather well with Victorino. 2nd times a charm? Or is it 3rd? Or does it even work when the first time worked well? Im confused.