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Just dropped in to see what condition my position was in
By egrissom | November 12, 2009
For each of the eight offensive positions, here’s the Phillies team OPS at the position, the rank of that OPS in the NL this year, the NL average for the season, the team’s OPS rank in the NL in 2008 and the ‘09 OPS for the position over the NL average OPS for the position as a percentage:
| POS | OPS | NL Rank | NL AVG OPS | Rank ‘08 | OPS/NL AVG |
| C | .757 | 5 | .709 | 10 | 107 |
| 1B | .928 | 5 | .858 | 4 | 108 |
| 2B | .896 | 1 | .741 | 1 | 121 |
| 3B | .686 | 12 | .752 | 15 | 91 |
| SS | .699 | 10 | .721 | 6 | 97 |
| LF | .827 | 4 | .781 | 5 | 106 |
| CF | .831 | 2 | .762 | 4 | 109 |
| RF | .898 | 1 | .781 | 12 | 115 |
So, for example, the chart shows that Phillies catchers overall posted a .757 OPS this season, which was the fifth-best for the teams in the league. The average NL team saw their catchers post a .709 OPS. The Phillies’ .757 is about 107% of .709.
There are 16 teams in the NL. By OPS, the Phillies were in the top five in six of the eight positions. The two where they were not were shortstop and third base.
By rank of the positional OPS compared to other teams, the Phillies improved at five positions in 2009 compared to 2008: catcher, third base, left field, center field and right field. They were down at two, first base and shortstop, and they had the best OPS at second base in both 2008 and 2009. Despite dropping from fourth to fifth in the league in OPS by first basemen, the Phils still got a lot of production from the position. The Padres and Cubs both topped the Phils in OPS at first base after the Phils had finished ahead of them in 2008.
Finally, if you rank how the team OPS by position compares to the league averages, the list goes like this:
- 2B (121)
- RF (115)
- CF (109)
- 1B (108)
- C (107)
- LF (106)
- SS (97)
- 3B (91)
I have added a page where I will track my guess at who will be on the 2010 Phillies team that you can access through the 2010 link at the top of the page.
The Phillies aren’t going to trade Cole Hamels or trade for Roy Halladay. If Amaro trades Cole Hamels for Roy Halladay they should fire him. He won’t, but if he did getting fired would be the least of his problems — his first priority would no doubt be finding someone to exercise the baseball-illiterate demon that had taken up residence within him. It is a little interesting if the Phillies truly don’t have any interest in Halladay, although I don’t think the Phillies need to add a big starting pitcher before the start of the season. They might need to add one before the end of season, though, and they had mixed results with that in 2009. The Lee trade was fantastic, but signing Pedro cost them.
The article linked above also says that Moyer will have surgery on his left knee in December.
Amaro says the two top priorities are third base and the bullpen. Figgins, Tejada, Belte, DeRosa and Polanco seem like the most common guesses about who the Phils might go after for third. Polanco is the least exciting name in that group, coming off of a season where he hit 266/304/434 against lefties.
Rollins and Victorino won Gold Gloves.
This says the Phillies may be interested in Fernando Rodney.
Lidge had elbow surgery and should be throwing within eight weeks. Amaro says he’s hopeful that Lidge will be ready close to opening day.
Topics: offense |
November 12th, 2009 at 10:20 am
Good post. Its a refreshing look at the Phils offense and how good they really are. It also points out that 3rd base is a spot that an upgrade is valid, atleast with the bat. I hope that everyone (I am not talking about posters to this site, but the general public and ‘water cooler’ chatter) doesnt discount what he does on the field. The question is does a big bat make everyone forget defensive miscues? It seems at least with the general public that great defense does not mask a small bat.
November 12th, 2009 at 10:32 am
In regards to your last sentence, it really doesn’t. Even looking at things in the most bare bones way imaginable, consider errors. Imagine, if you would, Pedro Feliz and his average of 9 errors at 3B each season (I’m discounting his first year in the league when he played in only 4 games). Pedro is considered to be something approaching wizardlike with the glove (I personally think he’s flashy, but prone to inconsistency at times. One year he has 21 errors, another he has 8.)
What would an “average” fielding 3rd baseman do? Let’s say he makes twice as many errors for the season, for argument’s sake, and commits 18 faux pas during the year. Let’s also say he collects 30 more hits himself with the bat. Assuming each error merely allowed the runner to reach 1st or at worst 2nd, you’re still looking at Mr. Average getting on base 21 more times than he’s allowing extra to get on. I think it’s also safe to assume that there’s a higher probability in those 21 hits for a double, triple, or homerun than it is for Mr. Average to commit a 2, 3, or 4-base error.
Great fielding sure does get a lot of people excited and I can understand why. I’d also think it’s vastly overrated when compared to significantly increased offensive potential.
November 12th, 2009 at 10:37 am
A more practical comparison, albeit using a much smaller sample size:
Alex Rodriguez badly misplayed a couple ground balls in the World Series that got by him. Pedro Feliz made a few amazing plays that didn’t. Alex Rodriguez is currently playing for the World Series Champions.
November 12th, 2009 at 10:53 am
My only problem with that comparison is that ARod isnt a possible upgrade for the Phils. Figgins has comparable fielding numbers to Feliz and Figgins was better with the bat and getting on base. He probalby will command close to 10 million in free agency which would hamper the Phils when trying to shore up the pen. Beltre’s feilding was probably worse if he would have played the whole season and his salary last year was over 12 mil I think, and I’m sure wont take too much less than that. DeRosa would probably be the best comparison and his fielding was probably better, although his sample size at third is much smaller than Feliz’s.
November 12th, 2009 at 10:54 am
The thing that worries me about third base is that despite Feliz’s offensive problems, the list of 3B we know to be available that are clearly better are pretty small. I think it’s great the Phils are trying to improve where they can, but it will be interesting to see how they try and do it.
November 12th, 2009 at 11:12 am
I just meant the comparison between A-Rod and Feliz as an example of offense vs. defense and the resulting fate of the two teams.
There are a lot of other factors that contributed to the Yankees winning the World Series than Pedro Feliz simply being more defense-oriented than A-Rod.
I think a lot of problems get solved, or at least largely abate, by Jimmy being Jimmy instead of Jimmy being Desi Relaford.
The combination of Jimmy Rollins and anybody else playing short for the season should not be comparable OPS-wise to Pedro Feliz/Greg Dobbs at 3rd. That’s just ugly.
November 12th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
I find it odd that Amaro keeps saying he is more likely to upgrade 3B through free agency than through a trade. I just don’t see how any of the guys on the market are a sure-fire thing at 3B. They all have questions and/or holes in their game.
I really like Figgins, but do the Phillies really need another offensive player like him? (Eric…you’re talking me more and more out of wanting Figgins) Polanco and Tejada haven’t played third. Beltre has had one good season in his career. DeRosa just doesn’t excite me. I guess they could go after Tad Iguchi again.
It just seems like a trade may make the most sense, although to get somebody that is controlled for a few more seasons is going to cost a lot.
November 12th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
I’m not thrilled about Figgins, I’m just worried that it might be Polanco or someone similar. I think Tejada could be okay. I think DeRosa would be okay, too. I don’t think Iguchi can throw that far. Glaus is still a guy that interests me — I know he is hurt and can’t play defense, but he can hit. I think a trade is possible too.
I sure hope the guys that Amaro is considering is longer than the like of guys that people are talking about.
November 12th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
I’m still intrigued at the possibility of a trade. Amaro really seems to be somebody who plays it close to the vest, so my hope is that he is exploring that option more than he is letting on. Glaus could be interesting if you sign him and DeRosa to be your bench guy. If Bruntlett and/or Dobbs are playing a significant amount of time at 3B next year, I may lose my lunch.
November 12th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
I don’t think it would be terrible if Dobbs got a little time at third. He had an awful season, but I do think he can hit. Can’t field, but you can’t have everything. I think there’s a chance that Bruntlett won’t be on the team (speaking of awful seasons).
November 12th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
Really nice blog you have here, very intelligent discussions.
I think Amaro blows a lot of smoke. Being honest about your intentions give the opponents an advantage.
I agree that there seems no sure thing on the 3rd base market right but trading means giving up something of value. Unless the other team would take Bruntlett or Dobbs or Moyer its going to cost. What do you think they have to trade that wouldn’t be missed down the road?
November 13th, 2009 at 8:49 am
Thanks. I agree with your Amaro comments. I think there have been a couple of times already where everyone is talking about one move and he comes up with something a lot better.
I think Bruntlett, Dobbs and Moyer combine to have little trade value. In terms of what the Phils have to trade, I’m not sure they have a lot at the major league level. The only thing I can think of is that they could trade Victorino and let Werth play center. I don’t think they will. Beyond that, it’s guys in the minor leagues, headed up by Drabeck, Brown and Taylor. People sometimes suggest they could trade Hamels — I think that would be a big mistake and would be very surprised if it happened.
November 13th, 2009 at 10:54 am
Agree Re: Hamels. I think he’ll be a lot better next year, after he spends an offseason training instead of running the banquet circuit.
Of course, he’s already been filmed at a NYC video game store picking up/promoting Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2.. maybe the time his fingers spend on a mouse/controller will help his curveball?
November 13th, 2009 at 11:34 am
I am really wary of the the-banquet-circuit-did-it theory of what went wrong for Hamels in 2009. I really don’t know why 2009 was so much worse than 2008 for Hamels. If it was because he spent too much time appearing at events that’s great to hear, but it seems a little simplistic. Let’s hope it was something that simple and easy to fix. I kind of doubt it, though.
November 13th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
This last response got me thinking about what was different in Cole, numbers wise, from 2008 and 2009. Yes, ERA was way up in 2009, but why? HR/9, K/9, BB/9 were all pretty much the same. The only thing that I could really see that changed dramatically was his BABIP. League average is about .300. In ‘08, Cole’s was .262 and in ‘09 it was .321. So, essentially, he was lucky that a lot of balls put in play in ‘08 became outs, and unlucky in ‘09 that they weren’t.
Eric, I’m sure that you could put this a lot more eloquently. But, long story short, I’m not all that worried about 2010 Cole any more.
November 13th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
I ragged on Hamels pretty bad last year, especially toward the end as I spewed a lot of “Pedro is a better option for us RIGHT NOW” vitriol. I stand by what I said, but know that going forward Cole needs to and will be a huge part of the team.
Batters are much easier to predict success for. The case of a good hitter falling off the planet in his early to mid-20’s is far more rare than a good pitcher doing the same. Jeff Francoeur is a good example of the less likely former though he seemed to kick his awful slump once he changed teams last year, while Dontrelle Willis is a good example of the more likely latter.
Willis’ fall might be the most dramatic case. 22-10 in 2005. NL All-Star, Cy Young Runner-Up, 11th in MVP voting. Since that season, he’s been a disaster: 23-33 with a 4.94 ERA and WHIP over 1.50. Those numbers become much, MUCH worse if you take out his only decent year (12-12 3.87 1.419 the year immediately after 22 wins) since then.
We’re hoping to avoid that and I’m thinking we will. Cole never really seemed to pitch particularly or consistently terribly…something you might come to expect from a guy with a constant injury or mechanical issue. It always seemed like he was getting knocked out of the game during the midst of a 3-run 5th or 6th inning. This could have simply been a year for Hamels to forget, chalking his troubles up to bad luck.
I hope that’s true (thought I have some doubts) and if it is and Cole puts numbers up similar at all to his 2008 campaign and I think a lot of people end up being happy. Cliff Lee takes a lot of pressure off the guy, which is good.
I really think the policy teams and players have of not disclosing injuries can be pretty silly. Lidge getting surgery immediately after the World Series after saying over and over again at various times that he felt great? I know these guys are competitive and want to help the team win (or I’m sure in some circumstances simply don’t want it to seem like they’re making excuses), but what would help the team a lot better is getting you out of there if you’re hurt and giving someone healthy and more effective a shot to get things done. Perhaps it’s simply a fear of losing a job. Blowing 1-out-of-4 saves in a year is a pretty good way to go about doing that anyway.
I got off-topic and I apologize. Point is, I think Cole will be just dandy next year.
November 13th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
Ha, basically what Greg said. I need to start setting a word limit for myself.
November 13th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
Trading Hamels is just not a logical course of action because of a sub par year. If his poor performance continues through 2010 then moving him would be something to consider. My opinion is that he will turn it around. There seems to be some sort of mental block. On one of the HR at bats during the WS, the announcer said he threw about 5 straight breaking balls. There was also another time during the playoffs that it was mentioned that he threw the same pitch in succession a number of times. Both resulted in HRs. Maybe he just needed a break from baseball. Maybe the banquet circuit theory has some merit. 2008 blended into the banquet circuit which blended into 2009.
I also found it a little disturbing that Lidge went right into surgery at the end of the year after denying anything physically during the season and playoffs.
November 13th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
I don’t know what was wrong with Hamels. It definitely seems like it was all about the number of hits he gave up — opponents hit .273 against him after hitting .227 in ‘08. I think he’ll come back strong, but I would like to understand better what happened.
It seems like the two-pitches won’t work theory should have some merit, but he sure had a lot of success in 2008.
On Lidge I think the Phils deserve some criticism. He was awful all year and they used him in the playoffs and it cost the team. I don’t care if he tells the media if he’s hurt, but the team should know. Whether he was hurt or not, he wasn’t pitching well and didn’t all year and the Phils kept giving him the ball.