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Non-starter
By egrissom | November 10, 2009
The Playoff Start Log is updated and I think it says a lot about what went wrong for the Phillies in the World Series. In 2008 the Phils won it all, getting five quality starts in five World Series games. After Lee allowed one run in nine innings in game one of the NLDS against the Rockies this year, the Phils had made seven quality starts in a row in playoff games. In the last four games of the World Series this year the Phillies didn’t have a quality start and their starters threw to a 7.59 ERA. They allowed 18 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings.
That probably has a lot to do with how much better the Yankees are at scoring runs than the Rockies or Rays. Still, you aren’t going to win a lot of games when your starters throw to a 7.59 ERA.
The Yankees won the World Series this year. The Phillies didn’t. The Yankees had Andy Pettitte and the Phillies had Joe Blanton. The pair didn’t play in the same league in 2009, but they had pretty similar numbers during the regular season:
| GS | IP | ERA | Ratio | ERA+ | |
| Blanton | 31 | 195.1 | 4.05 | 1.32 | 106 |
| Pettitte | 32 | 194.2 | 4.16 | 1.38 | 107 |
If the two players had a similar year in the regular season, they didn’t in the post-season. The Yankees put a whole lot of their playoff eggs in the Pettitte basket, but Blanton was not a big part of the Phillies rotation in the playoffs. You didn’t have to watch the Phillies play too many playoff games this year before that became apparent. He was pitching in relief in the sixth inning of game two of the NLDS with the Phils down 4-0.
The Phils and Yankees both played 15 post-season games in 2009. Pettitte threw almost twice as many innings as Blanton. He threw 30 2/3 while Blanton threw 15 2/3. Blanton made two starts and two appearances in relief while Pettitte’s post-season legend grew. Pettitte made five post-season starts in ‘09 and went 4-0 with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.21 ratio.
Why would the Phillies do such a thing? Well, it wasn’t because Blanton hadn’t been good in the post-season. He helped them win the World Series in 2008 as he started three playoff games. The Phils won all three as Blanton went 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.29 ratio.
The why, apparently, turned out to be that the Phils thought their chances were better with Pedro Martinez. The Phils signed the free agent Martinez in mid-July to a contract that would have the Phillies paying him about a million dollars. Martinez made nine starts for the Phils in 2009 and pitched better than a lot of people were expecting, going 5-1 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.25 ratio. There were some warning signs, too, though. Opponents slugged .472 against him and he allowed eight home runs in 44 2/3 innings. That home run rate would have had him allowing about 36 over 200 innings. Milwaukee’s Braden Looper was the only pitcher in either league that allowed 36 or more home runs this season. Two of his early starts with the Phils were cut short by rain, but he threw less than five innings per start in his nine outings with the Phils.
He didn’t exactly end the regular season on a high note. He made a fantastic start against the Mets on September 13 in which he threw 130 pitches in eight shutout innings. His next start was against the Braves on September 19 and he allowed three runs over three innings before leaving the game with a neck problem. He made just one more start before the end of the year and he wasn’t very good. On September 30, he faced Houston and allowed three runs on six hits and a walk over four innings.
It didn’t scare off the Phillies. They let him start a game in the NLCS and two games in the World Series. They lost all three games. In the first he pitched great but had to be pulled before he had thrown 90 pitches. In each of the next two the Phils left him in the game too long. He started the game in which they were eliminated from the World Series and was awful.
So Blanton was a solid pitcher this year, the Phils gave at least some of his playoff starts to Pedro, who not a lot of other teams seemed to want, and then they lost every post-season game that Pedro started. That sounds pretty bad and I think it was. It’s a little more complicated than that, though.
The Phillies scored a total of five runs in the three games Martinez started. Pedro didn’t pitch as well as his numbers would indicate, but his numbers were great overall for the playoffs. In the three playoff starts with the Phils, Pedro threw to a 3.71 ERA with an 0.88 ERA. Blanton, meanwhile, did not pitch well in his post-season chances. He made two starts and two relief appearances overall for the post-season, throwing to a 5.17 ERA and a 1.21 ratio.
Still, the decision to go with Martinez instead of Blanton in the post-season was critical for the Phillies. And it didn’t work.
Cliff Lee will be back with the Phils in 2010 after the Phillies picked up his $9 million option.
Brett Myers will not be back.
Feliz may or may not be back, but it’s a little less likely now that the Phillies have declined his $5.5 million option.
I think the Phils went 3-for-3 in that flurry. I think it was the right decision not to pick up Feliz’s option, but I was surprised to see them do it. Beltre, Figgins and DeRosa seem to be the names that most people are talking about as improvements at third. If he’s healthy, I think Troy Glaus would be a huge help for the Phillies offensively as well. You might notice some defensive dropoff, though. The list of free agent third basemen that would help the Phils more than Feliz isn’t that long, so hopefully they have something in mind.
Ibanez (sports hernia) and Eyre (loose bodies in his elbow) were scheduled for surgeries yesterday and Lidge will have surgery on Wednesday to remove loose bodies from his right elbow.
Park, Feliz, Bako, Stairs, Martinez, Myers and Cairo have all filed to become free agents.
Topics: 2009 World Series |
November 10th, 2009 at 10:17 am
I have to agree that it was a fairly large mistake/panicked move to move two of your more consistent starters (Blanton/Happ) both to the pen for the playoffs. Happ hadn’t been throwing all that great toward the end of the year, and I understand the “need” for a lefty in the pen. But to put both of them out there seemed odd to me.
Also surprised, but not unhappy, with the Feliz decision. I wouldn’t have been upset with an incentive-laden deal for Myers and allow him to pitch out of the pen. It seems like he may have worn out his welcome though.
I wouldn’t mind seeing the Phillies sign Figgins and insert him as the lead-off guy. That would allow Rollins to drop down into the 6-7 hole in the lineup. I think that’s pretty much dreaming on my part though.
November 10th, 2009 at 10:25 am
I think the Phillies need a righty with some pop in the Feliz spot. They could certainly do a lot worse than Figgins, but I am going to be surprised if they have all three of Rollins, Victorino and Figgins in their lineup.
The thing that worries me is that I don’t think they are going to get Figgins and the list of other third basemen we know that are available and we know are also better than Feliz isn’t that long. I still think it was the right move, just cause Feliz isn’t that good a player and there are only a few spots where the Phils can upgrade their offense.
The Feliz thing is surely interesting, but I think the biggest task for the off-season is about pitching. I don’t think the bring Pedro in at the end and let him start two World Series games was the way to go. I think the Phils need to be figuring out how they are going to get pitching that’s good enough to beat the best offenses in baseball. Lee and a real Hamels at the top of the rotation is a great start, but they still need some more pieces.
November 10th, 2009 at 10:53 am
Agreed. The good news is that it seems like the farm system is producing enough guys (or at least has a good reputation) that they could trade for a few pieces if the right deal comes up.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:14 am
I agree. In terms of the starters, I think Lee, Hamels, Blanton at the top of the rotation is a good enough plan. If its good enough to work is going to depend if all three are healthy and pitching well when the Phils make their playoff run. If not, I think the Phils need to get a starter and the farm can help with that — either by producing one or trading for one.
I think the Phils can get into the playoffs with a rotation of Lee, Hamels, Blanton and whoever as long as there are not too many injuries.
The part I think we know isn’t good enough is the pen. They are missing a lot of pieces.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:19 am
The 3rd base topic will be a hot one until it isn’t, thats for sure. This article:
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20091110_Phillies_shopping_for_third_baseman.html
isn’t bad but there is one little thing in there that was brushed upon if I am reading it right. Amaro said he got two trade offers for a 3rd basemen but declined to say anything else. It’s just me being curious but I would love to know who the two were.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:37 am
For some reason, and I am just guessing, but I think Gordon from KC was one of them. They could use some OF depth, and the Phillies have plenty of that. So, there seems to be a fit (other than Gordon is left-handed).
November 10th, 2009 at 11:54 am
If Amaro lands Alex Gordon in a trade we’ll need to start building statues to him. I think he must have a plan, but I sure don’t know what it is. I really can’t imagine what they’re going to do. I’ll be surprised if it’s sign Figgins, though.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Yeah, I’m just enamored with a more prototypical lead-off type guy. I don’t know if Figgins fits this team, but I am personally a fan of high-OBP guys.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
I’d be thrilled to have Figgins, but I think he helps your roto team more than your baseball team. The Phils already have two guys on the team who are speedy on-base types — they just haven’t been doing a great job of getting on base. Also, every roto player knows you don’t want to be getting your speed from third base (that’s a joke). One thing I wonder is if the Phils would consider trading Victorino given the addition of Francisco and the ability of Werth to play center. I think no is the answer, probably.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
I do wonder how far fetched a possible trade of Victorino actually is? Personally I really would be in disagreement of it but the Phils do have some outfield prospects that they want to get up to the bigs and Victorino (I would assume) has some very high trade value.
On a side note, saw that the Rays excersied Crawfords option at 10 million for next season. Reference:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4639392
Isnt that about 1/3 of their total payroll? Add Burrell’s 9 million (I think) and the Rays would ahve close to 20 million wrapped up in 2 players. Unheard of for that org. I will go to bed tonight dreaming that the Rays will then cut Longoria and the Phils end up with him…..
November 10th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
nice dream Bill
I don’t see the Phils trading anyone…in the end, we made it to the WS and hit a hot team when our SP were not on the top of their game.
I also still feel like we lost because we could not keep up with the DH rules
so the team is pretty set…other than the Pen i guess.
The main thing I will be interested in next year the Pen and Lidge. He seemed like he had better stuff towards the end of the season. But only time will tell if its Lidge’s stuff or the league catching up with his pitches.
did I hear he added a third pitch at the end of last year?
We have him 2 more years right?
Same with Madsen, 2 more years?
I would like to see them bring Park back if possible.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Madson and Lidge both are signed through 2011. The Phils have a club option on Lidge in 2012.
I think Lidge was hurt this year. Let’s hope so. The Phillies must know. Even if he was hurt and gets healthy for next year, you have to wonder how easy it will be to get back in the swing of things.
On the possibility of trading Victorino, I would hope that nothing in the decision has anything to do with who the Phillies have in the minor leagues. It’s not the time for them to be counting on minor league guys to pan out, no matter how good they have looked. I don’t see a Victorino deal happening, but he does seem to have a little more chance to be traded than the other six offensive starters.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
Of those possible 3rd base candidates, I’d have to say I’d be most enamored of Figgins but that might be the All-Star spot he won last year in the AMERICAN LEAGUE. You know…that league that tends to be far and above better than the one the Phils play in.
I think you throw Figgins into the Phils lineup and he easily puts up double-digit homeruns (Pete Happy “only” scraped together 12) while still having a bunch of speed and walking a ton (like leading the AL in 2009 a ton). He’s a year older than Beltre, but I hear Chone at least wears a cup? I dunno, that sounds like excellent stuff to me. Besides, we’d still be getting about half a decade younger at the position.
Overall, I’d look at it like you’re not losing any of your power guys (on a team that led the NL in balls hit to New Jersey last year). You’re losing power slightly at 3rd but you’re making up for it with so much as to be almost laughable, I think, in comparison.
Pedro Feliz is like Abraham Nunez if Nunez was a juicer (ok…AND could hit better than .250).
Beltre from 5 years ago would be awesome.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
I wouldn’t be opposed to a trade of Victorino if they signed Figgins. That seems like a lot of moving parts though, and something I doubt the team would do.
Lidge is signed through 2011. I’m not sure about Madsen. I think they would love to have Park back as well. It seemed like the team had so much depth in the pen heading into last season based on the guys they had signed and stashed at Lehigh Valley. Just didn’t turn out that way.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
I also wounldn’t be opposed to signing Beltre if he comes with a time machine.
November 10th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
If they traded Victorino they would get someone really good, too, so it would really be Figgins plus someone good. That’s a lot of good.
If Beltre comes with a time machine let’s hope it has a 2004 setting. I agree Figgins would be better than Beltre. Feliz actually had a better on-base percentage than Beltre last year. Figgins has slugged better than .400 twice in his eight-year career, though, so let’s not go too nuts. Rollins has slugged over .400 for each of the last six seasons and Victorino has slugged over .400 every year of his career in which he’s had 100 PA. I still think the Phillies need a right-handed power hitter at third. I just don’t know who it is.
November 10th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
If for no other reason, I will campaign for Chone so we have two starting infielders who start their name with a Ch-. Maybe we could bring Chipper over to play in a wheelchair to complete the “chrifecta”. No good?
November 10th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
That’s the kind of thinking we’ve been missing. One Ch already, not to mention Chooch behind the plate. Chone at third and we can trade for Chris Burke to play short and Chad Tracy to play first. We may never win a game, but it will be a hoot.
November 11th, 2009 at 6:56 am
.wang needs to wake up or somethin…btw, did you guys see that the bronx is burning is airing on msg now?? (http://www.msg.com/summerof77/) pretty cool cuz now they have commentary after from reggie jackson, ron guidry, bucky dent, and others that were involved in the 77′ season. its on sundays at 9pm. imagine how many hr’s reggie would have if he played in the new stadium lol.