Archive for October 5th, 2009

That’s not hot

Not a whole lot of Phillies hitting the ball especially well as the regular season comes to a close. Here’s a look at the eight regulars, what they did in the regular season and in their last handful of at-bats:

 

Season

 

HOT

AVG

OBP

SLG
 

Rollins

250

296

423
Miserable year
for Rollins, but it ends with a six-game hitting streak; He’s
10-for-his-last-25 (400/464/725)
         

Howard

279

360

571
Another monster
year for Howard, who has driven in more than 140 runs for the third time
in four seasons.  He comes into the post-season on a tear, hitting
365/437/762 over his last 71 plate appearances and 7-for-his-last-17 with
two home runs. 
         

Ruiz

255

355

425
Ruiz blasted
left-handed pitching this season to the tune of 293/370/524.  After
hitting just 235/335/367 in the first half of the season, he hit
276/375/487 in the second half.  He missed about a week in late
September with a problem with his left wrist, but came back in time to go
3-for-10 with a pair of walks to end the season.
         
  Season  

NOT

AVG

OBP

SLG
 

Feliz

266

308

386
Feliz’s .386
slugging percentage for the year is the worst for his career in any season
where he had 250 at-bats.  He hit just 12 home runs on the season,
the fewest he has hit since 2002 when he got 146 at-bats.  He was
terrible in the second-half, hitting 236/274/351.  5-for-his-last-22. 
Hasn’t drawn a walk in his last 58 plate appearances.
         

Werth

268

373

506
In his first
season with more than 420 plate appearances, Werth had a fantastic year
and set career-highs in home runs (36), RBI (99) and slugging percentage
(.506).  He’s still way better against lefties than righties
(302/436/644 vs lefties this year and 256/348/457 against righties), but
he didn’t break down in the second half, putting up a .873 OPS in the
second-half after posting an .884 OPS in the first half.  He’s
5-for-his-last-20 but hit 189/343/302 in his last 67 plate appearances to
end the regular season.
         

Ibanez

272

347

552
A .552 slugging
percentage was a career high for Ibanez.  He hit 34 home runs, which
is also a career high.  309/367/649 in the first half and 232/326/448
in the second half.  Hit lefties better than righties, posting a
285/359/639 line against lefties and 267/342/517 against righties. 
Hit a miserable 196/277/327 in 119 plate appearances from August 1 to
September 7.  He picked it up some after that, hitting 259/358/543 in
his last 95 plate appearances to end the season.  Comes in the
playoffs 3-for-his-last-18.
         

Victorino

295

358

445
His .358
on-base percentage is a career-high, but Victorino has struggled badly
after July.   He hit 245/309/394 since the end of July and comes
into the post-season 7-for-his-last-35, hitting 200/243/371 in his last 38
plate appearances.
         

Utley

282

397

508
Utley hit
313/430/573 with 20 home runs in the first half and 246/358/432 with 11
homers in the second.  He enters the post-season 0-for-his-last-15. 
He hit two home runs in 108 at-bats in September.

Rollins, Howard and Ruiz finished strong. Hopefully the rest of the guys pick things up with the help of some extra time off.

Among other players who may see time in the post-season for the Phillies, Miguel Cairo finished well. He went 5-for-13 with a triple and a home run to end the season.

Cairo’s fellow backup infielder Eric Bruntlett had a hide-your-eyes ugly season, but was 2-for-9 to end the year with two singles. That might not sound like much, but he hit 171/224/238 on the year.

Dobbs 1-for-his-last-11.

Stairs 0-for-his-last-4 with three strikeouts. He hasn’t singled since the end of June — he’s 4-for-his-last-49 (.082) with two doubles and two homers.

Ben Francisco seems like the guy on the bench likely to see the most time. He finished the year by going 5-for-12 with two doubles and two walks.

Bako was 2-for-9 with a pair of singles to end the season.


Top 25

Here’s today’s guess at the post-season roster for the Phillies:

These 12 hitters seem sure things: Ruiz, Bako, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Feliz, Ibanez, Victorino, Werth, Francisco, Stairs, Dobbs.

Either or both of Bruntlett and Cairo seem possible. My guess is both, which puts them at 14 hitters.

That leaves 11 slots for pitchers.

These seven are the guys I feel sure about it terms of pitchers on the roster: Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Madson, Eyre, Lidge.

That leaves four slots for Condrey, Durbin, Kendrick, Walker, Escalona, Myers and Pedro.

Walker, Pedro, Kendrick and Condrey are my guesses from that group.

So here’s my final guess:

Hitters (14): Ruiz, Bako, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Feliz, Ibanez, Victorino, Werth, Francisco, Stairs, Dobbs, Bruntlett, Cairo

Pitchers (11): Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Madson, Eyre, Lidge, Walker, Pedro, Kendrick and Condrey.

The Phillies end the regular season at 93-69 after dropping two of three to the Marlins. They won yesterday’s game on a walkoff single by Paul Hoover.

They will have home field advantage against the Rockies in the five-game NLDS. Games one and two are Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

The Phils went 4-2 against Colorado this season. They took two of three against them in Colorado April 10, 11 and 12. Harry Kalas died on April 13. The Phils also played the Rockies in early August in Philadelphia and again took two of three.

The Phillies also played the Rockies in the NLDS in 2007. The Phillies also had home field advantage in that series, but were swept in three games.

In game one the Phillies couldn’t touch Rockies starter Jeff Francis and the Rocks won 4-2. The Rockies scored three off of Hamels in the second inning. Rowand and Burrell hit solo homers off of Francis in the fifth to make it 3-2. Matt Holliday hit a solo shot off of Flash in the eighth to extend the Colorado lead to 4-2, which was how it ended.

Kendrick started game two and got hit hard as the Phillies lost 10-5. The Phils took a 3-2 lead into the fourth inning, but Kendrick wouldn’t make it through the frame. Kaz Mastui blasted two-out grand slam off of Lohse. Miserable work from Mesa and Condrey late helped the Rockies score four runs in the eighth inning.

Moyer pitched great in game three in Colorado, but Ubaldo Jimenez was a little better. A Matsui line drive to left that Burrell misplayed into a triple helped the Rockies go up 1-0 in the fifth. Victorino hit an 0-2 pitch from Jimenez out in the seventh to tie the game at 1-1. With two outs and nobody on in the eighth, Atkins singled off of Romero. Hawpe was next and he singled off the glove of a diving Utley, moving Atkins to third. Romero stayed in to pitch to the right-handed pinch-hitter Baker and Baker singled to right, scoring Atkins to make it 2-1. Myers got the last out of the inning, but Manny Corpas set the Phillies down in order in the ninth.

After winning three in a row from the Phils, the Rockies had won 17 of their last 18 games.

Do you know there’s a start log for the Phillies for 2007and 2008? There is.


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