Archive for June, 2009

Um, could we have another baseball please?

Allowing home runs has been a huge problem for the Phillies this season.

As a team the Phillies allowed 160 home runs in 2008 — that’s .99 per game. They’ve allowed 107 already in 2009, which is about 1.46 per game. They’re on pace to allow 237 in 2009, which is 77 more than they allowed last year.

The 107 home runs they have allowed overall is the most for the league by a lot (nothing in this post includes results from yesterday). The Brewers and the Astros are tied for second in the NL in home runs allowed and they have both allowed just 91. The Phillies have also allowed more home runs than any team in the DH-loving American League.

The Phillies aren’t going to allow 237 home runs this year. If they did, though, it would be the most home runs allowed by a team in either league since the Rockies allowed 239 in 2001.

To allow that many home runs it helps to be bad in a lot of different areas and not just really bad in one. Compared to the other teams in the NL, the Phillies allow lots of homers by their starters, their relievers, at home and away.

Here’s the number of home runs per inning the Phillies starting pitchers have allowed this season compared to the other teams in the NL:

Team IP HR HR per IP Rank
LAD 422.3 35 .083 2
STL 460 39 .085 3
SF 444 46 .104 6
CHI 434.7 58 .133 11
ATL 439 35 .080 1
ARI 449.7 58 .129 10
COL 442 43 .097 4
PIT 442 45 .102 5
HOU 408 58 .142 13
CIN 437 67 .153 14
NYM 428 48 .112 7
FLA 432.7 50 .116 8
MIL 417 69 .165 15
WAS 411.3 50 .122 9
SD 405 56 .138 12
PHI 411.3 80 .194 16

So the starters are allowing .194 home runs per inning this season. The team whose starting pitchers have the second-worst rate of allowing home runs this season are the Brewers, but even Milwaukee’s starters have allowed just .165 home runs per inning.

And here are the relievers:

Team IP HR HR per IP Rank
MIL 238.3 22 .092 8
ATL 230 14 .061 1
CHI 207.3 22 .106 12
CIN 229 17 .074 2
HOU 248.7 33 .133 16
LAD 257 24 .093 9
WAS 237 20 .084 5
NYM 226.7 19 .084 4
PHI 245.3 27 .110 13
PIT 209.3 22 .105 11
STL 215.3 27 .125 15
SD 252 26 .103 10
SF 206 16 .078 3
COL 210 25 .119 14
FLA 253 22 .087 6
ARI 239.7 22 .092 7

A little better for the Phils, but still very bad. The relievers for Colorado, St Louis and Houston are the only ones who have allowed home runs at a higher rate than the Phillies.

They’re awful at preventing home runs at home:

Team IP HR HR per IP Rank
MIL 334 41 .123 11
ATL 363 21 .058 1
CHI 309 38 .123 12
CIN 316 41 .130 14
HOU 372 47 .126 13
LAD 354 24 .068 2
WAS 364.7 35 .096 7
NYM 360 36 .100 9
PHI 322 59 .183 16
PIT 315 25 .079 4
STL 360 33 .092 6
SD 345 31 .090 5
SF 328 25 .076 3
COL 288 29 .101 10
FLA 375 36 .096 8
ARI 397 56 .141 15

Worst in the league. A little better on the road, but not much:

Team IP HR HR per IP Rank
MIL 327 50 .153 15
ATL 312 28 .090 2
CHI 338.3 42 .124 12
CIN 356 43 .121 10
HOU 292 44 .151 14
LAD 331.7 35 .106 6
WAS 291 35 .120 9
NYM 301.7 31 .103 4
PHI 339.7 48 .141 13
PIT 341.3 42 .123 11
STL 322 33 .102 3
SD 320 51 .159 16
SF 328 37 .113 7
COL 372 39 .105 5
FLA 317 36 .114 8
ARI 296.7 24 .081 1

Houston, Milwaukee and San Diego have all allowed home runs at a higher rate on the road than the Phils.

The Phillies are bad at preventing home runs compared to the rest of the league in all four categories, but worse in some than others. The table below compares the home runs per inning the Phillies have allowed for the season to the average home runs per inning for the other 15 NL teams:

  Avg HR per
IP for other 15 NL Teams
HR per IP
for PHI
SP .117 .194 1.66
RP .096 .110 1.15
Home .100 .183 1.83
Away .118 .141 1.20

So, for example, the starting pitchers for the 15 NL teams that aren’t the Phillies have allowed .117 home runs per inning on the season. The Phillies starters have allowed .194. .194 over .117 is 1.66, so the Phillies starters have allowed home runs at 1.66 times the rate of the average of the other 15 teams in the league combined.

So they’re allowing a lot of home runs in all four situations, but especially when their starters are pitching and at home.

Bastardo to the DL and Escalona up.

This says Ibanez is unlikely to come back from the DL on Friday. It also says that Mayberry has played really well for the Phillies. He’s hitting .216 and on-basing .256.

Canadian awaken

The Phillies won a game ugly yesterday, but given how badly they’ve been playing this is no time to quibble. Madson and Lidge were both a little shaky at the back of the pen, but good enough to hold on and get the Phils a much-needed series win as the team finally gets a break from interleague play.

They could use it. They are 6-12 against the AL this year after going 4-11 against them in 2008. In Toronto, though, they managed to take two games with the help of a monster series from Werth, who went 6-for-8 and walked five times, and an impressive complete-game shutout from Happ in the middle game that helped the bullpen get some needed rest.

The Phillies are 39-34 on the year after taking two of three from the Blue Jays in Toronto over the weekend. They are in first place in the NL East, 2 1/2 games above the second-place Mets. The Mets are now at .500. The Phils have won two in a row for the first time since June 10-11. They are 4-11 in their last 15 games.

The Phillies lost game one of the series 6-1. Hamels didn’t pitch well and didn’t make it through the fifth. The Phils didn’t get a hit off of Toronto starter Ricky Romero till the seventh and managed just three singles and two walks in the game. A sac fly from Werth scored Victorino in the ninth for the only Phillies run.

Happ threw a complete game shutout in game two and the Phils rolled to a 10-0 win. The Phils jumped out to a big lead early with four runs in the first. Werth had a huge day, going 4-for-4 with a pair of home runs and three RBI. Happ was fantastic, throwing the first complete game of his career and holding the Blue Jays to four singles and a double without walking a batter.

The Phils pulled out a 5-4 yesterday in the final game of the set. Moyer gave up two homers early to put the Phillies down 3-0 before they scored a run in the top of the third. Moyer allowed another homer in the bottom of the third, the second of the game by Aaron Hill. A two-run triple by Utley keyed a four-run fourth that put the Phils up 5-4. Moyer only went five, but the pen gave the Phils four innings of scoreless relief including a shaky one from Lidge to earn his first save since returning from the DL.

The Phillies pitched well in the series. In 26 innings they threw to a 3.46 ERA and a 1.19 ratio. The only home runs they allowed were the three that Moyer gave up yesterday.

Hamels and Moyer didn’t have good starts, but Happ made the numbers for the starting pitchers good overall. As a group the three pitched to a 3.86 ERA and a 1.18 ratio over 18 2/3 innings.

Hamels started game one and allowed four runs over 4 2/3 innings on eight hits and two walks. He was ejected from the game as he walked off the mound with two outs in the fifth and men on first and third.

Happ was fantastic in the second game. Complete game, five hits, no walks, four strikeouts and needed just 100 pitches to do it. Just a great outing, but it’s especially nice to see him not walking anyone after issuing ten walks over 11 2/3 innings in his two previous starts.

Moyer allowed four runs over five innings in game three. All four of the runs scored on the three homers he gave up in the game. He has a 6.05 ERA after 15 starts.

The relievers threw 7 1/3 innings in the series, throwing to a 2.45 ERA and a 1.23 ratio. They didn’t allow a home run. They gave up just four hits but walked five, which is too many. Both of the runs they allowed were charged to Lidge in game one.

Romero came into the bottom of the eighth in game one with the bases loaded, the Phils down 5-0 and one out. He walked the first man he faced, forcing in a run, but got Aaron Hill to hit into a double-play to end the inning.

Taschner did not pitch in the series.

Durbin did not pitch in the series.

Park came into game one in the bottom of the fifth with two outs, men on first and third and the Phils down 4-0. Alex Rios was the first man he faced and Rios smashed a ball back and off the knee of Park. Park threw the ball to first to end the inning, but then collapsed in pain. Walker started the sixth.

He was able to go again in game three. He entered to start the bottom of the sixth with a 5-4 lead and threw two perfect innings.

He has allowed just one home run since the end of April and none on the season while pitching in relief (14 appearances).

Walker started the sixth inning of game one with the Phillies down 4-0. He pitched a perfect sixth and a perfect seventh.

Madson started the eighth inning yesterday with a 5-4 lead. He allowed a one-out single that was followed by a Bruntlett error that put men on first and second. He got the next hitter on a ground out that moved the runners to second and third, then walked Lyle Overbay intentionally to load the bases. He got Russ Adams to pop out to the infield to end the inning.

Lidge started the eighth inning of game one with the Phils down 4-0, making his first appearance since June 6. The first four men he faced reached base on a double, two walks and a single. He left with one out and the bases loaded, the Phillies down 5-0.

He got the save yesterday with a little help from some terrible base-running by Toronto. He started the bottom of the ninth with a 5-4 lead and gave up a single and a walk to start the inning. He got a popup for the first out. With one out and men on first and second, John McDonald was then picked off of second and throw out at third for the second out. Wells grounded to short for the third out.

Nobody in the pen has thrown more than one day in a row, thanks to Happ’s outing in game two, and the Phils don’t play today. So the pen should be well-rested for Atlanta.

The Phillies scored 16 runs in the three-game set.

Victorino was 2-for-11 with two singles in the series. He walked twice and struck out five times. He’s hitting 296/363/446 on the season. Just two home runs in his 210 at-bats since the end of April.

Utley was 4-for-11 with a double, a triple and three walks in the series. 302/433/558 for the season.

Werth was 6-for-8 with a double, two home runs and five walks in the series to raise his line for the year to 271/364/494.

Howard was 4-for-13 with four singles and a walk in the series. 256/330/540 for the season. He’s hitting .237 and on-basing .312 for the month.

Mayberry started in left in all three games and went 0-for-12 with seven strikeouts. He’s at 216/256/514 for the year.

Feliz is hitting 287/331/407 on the year after going 3-for-12 with a double and a home run in the series. He also drew a walk in yesterday’s game. It was his second walk in June.

Coste was the DH in all three games. 3-for-8 with two walks. 253/351/394.

Bruntlett started at short in all three games in the series. He made a big error in the eighth inning of game three, but Madson pitched around it. He went 1-for-11 with a single, dropping his line on the year to an ugly 136/211/197.

Ruiz was 3-for-11 with three RBI in the set. He’s hitting 250/357/389 for the year and will probably enjoy the day off today after catching six games in a row.

Rollins did not play in the series and is having an atrocious year. He is outhitting Bruntlett pretty significantly, though.

Stairs didn’t see much action with Toronto throwing three lefties in the series. He went 1-for-2 with a single and is hitting 296/433/500 for the year.

Dobbs was 0-for-1 and is at 230/284/419 on the season.

Bako is a pretty bad use of a roster spot if you’re going to let Ruiz catch six days in a row. He has been with the team since June 9 and has gotten three at-bats in which he’s gone 1-for-3. I’d guess he’ll lose his roster spot soon with the Phillies mercifully not needing to use Coste as their DH.

This says JC Romero was involved in an incident with a fan in Florida.

This says Carlos Carrasco may pitch Thursday in Atlanta.

Scott Eyre was eligible to come off of the DL on Saturday. Didn’t.

At least last time they did that nifty thing where they played in a mud pit and the game took two days

It wasn’t quite as entertaining this go-round.

It’s a little hard to watch the Phillies play the Rays without thinking back to 2008 and the World Series. It’s also a little hard to think back to 2008 without wondering what exactly it is that’s wrong with the Phillies. And the answer is that there’s more than one thing wrong. They aren’t playing well. They don’t hit well and don’t pitch well. They make absurd mental mistakes that we’ve almost never seen from the team. They don’t notice as the batter who just walked runs to second. They forget how many outs there are on a fly ball and cost the team a run by getting doubled-off of first. They flip the ball to the wrong base a little too late, keeping an inning alive.

The Phillies are 37-33 on the season after losing two of three to Tampa Bay. They are in first place in the NL East, but lead the Mets by a half game and are just one game ahead of the Marlins. They have lost eight of their last nine and ten of their last twelve.

The Phillies pounded the Rays 10-1 in the first game of the series. The Phils scored six times in the first inning, getting a three-run homer from Mayberry. Moyer pitched very well, allowing just one run over six innings. Walker and Escalona came on after Moyer and gave the Phils three innings of scoreless relief.

Tampa Bay took game two 7-1, but things were a lot closer than that before the Rays blew the game open late. Blanton pitched very well, but Matt Garza shut down the Phils. Tampa started the top of the eighth with a 2-1 lead — they should have been kept off the board in the frame, but a Rollins misplay with two outs and the bases loaded kept them alive. They went on to score five times in the inning.

The Phils lost game three 10-4. They jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the top of the first, but Bastardo gave back three in first and three more in the second before leaving in the fourth inning with a shoulder problem. It made for a long day for the pen. They were called on to throw 4 1/3 innings and allowed four runs.

Awful pitching from the Phils in the series. In 25 innings they threw to a 6.48 ERA with a 1.48 ratio. They allowed 32 hits and walked 14.

They got two good starts, one from Moyer and one from Blanton, and an awful start from Bastardo. As a group the three threw 16 2/3 innings to a 4.86 ERA and a 1.56 ratio.

Moyer went six innings in game one, allowing a run on five hits, two singles and three doubles, and three walks. Four of his last five starts have been good. He’s allowed just three home runs in his last 31 innings after allowing 13 over 48 1/3 innings to start the season.

Blanton allowed two runs over seven innings in game two, giving the Phils their fourth-straight quality start. He struck out ten while allowing six hits and two walks. He has been fantastic recently. Over his last six starts he has a 2.75 ERA and a 1.14 ratio over 39 1/3 innings. He’s gone seven innings in four of his last six starts.

Bastardo was unimpressive in game three as the Phils gave him an early lead and he gave it right back. He allowed six runs over 3 2/3 innings on seven hits, including two home runs, and three walks. Over his last three starts he has allowed 14 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings (10.80 ERA) with a 1.80 ratio. Even if he was healthy enough to make his next start you would have to wonder if the Phils would have been ready to give someone else a try.

The relief pitching was atrocious. 9.72 ERA with a 2.40 ratio in 8 1/3 innings. They didn’t allow a home run, but gave up 14 hits and six walks. Walker and Escalona were very good in game one, but Romero and Park got hit hard in game two and Durbin in game three. Taschner also allowed a run on two hits and a walk in game three.

Romero entered game two in the bottom of the eighth with the Phils down 2-1 after BJ Upton doubled off of Blanton to start the frame. He gave up a single to send Upton to third, bringing up Willy Aybar with nobody out. Aybar hit a fly ball to Stairs in left for the second out and Stairs threw Upton out tagging from third. Crawford held second. Romero hit Carlos Pena with a pitch and then walked Ben Zobrist, loading the bases with two down. Park relieved Romero to pitch to the righty Burrell.

Awful outing for Romero, but he would have gotten out of it with his ERA unscathed if the inning had ended when Park got Burrell to ground to Rollins. He didn’t, as it turned out, and Romero was charged with three earned runs in the game.

Through the appearance he had walked 11 in 9 2/3 innings this season.

Taschner pitched the seventh inning of game three with the Phillies down 9-4. He allowed a triple a walk and a double in the frame and was lucky to give up just one run in the inning.

Over his last four appearances Taschner has allowed seven earned runs on 12 hits and four walks. That’s a 12.60 ERA and a 3.20 ratio. He’s not pitching very well.

Escalona lowered his ERA for the season to 3.38 with a 1-2-3 in the ninth inning of game one with the Phils up 10-1.

He’s pitching a whole lot better than Taschner, but lost his spot on the roster when Lidge returned.

Durbin entered game three yesterday in the bottom of the fourth with two outs, men on first and second and the Phils down 6-4. He struck Burrell out to get out of the inning. He came back for the fifth and got the first two before allowing two singles and a walk to load the bases. He struck out Dioner Navarro to leave the runners stranded. He returned for the sixth. Tampa Bay loaded the bases on a double and two walks. With two outs and the bases full, Tyler Walker relieved Durbin with the bases full and Jason Bartlett at the plate. Walker allowed back-to-back singles, so all three runners scored with the runs charged to Durbin.

Durbin has been charged with runs in each of his last three appearances, allowing five runs in four innings.

Park entered game two in the bottom of the eighth with two outs, the bases loaded and the Phils down 2-1. He got Burrell to hit a ground ball to short, but the ball was slowly hit and Rollins’ toss to second was not in time to force Ben Zobrist. Rollins almost surely would have had Burrell if he had gone to first. 3-1 with the bases loaded. Jason Bartlett followed and blooped a two-run single to right. 5-1. Gabe Gross was next and he doubled to right, driving in two more runs to make it 7-1, but was thrown out going for third to end the inning.

Walker pitched the seventh and eighth innings of game one with a 10-1 lead. He allowed three singles but no runs.

He also pitched in game three, entering in the bottom of the sixth with two outs, the Phils down 6-4 and the bases loaded to face Bartlett. He allowed an RBI-single to Bartlett and Aybar followed with a two-run single that made it 9-4. Victorino threw Aybar out at second to end the inning.

Another outing for Walker where the runs he helps allow are charged to another pitcher. He has a 0.00 ERA and a 1.60 ratio with the Phils in five appearances.

Madson pitched the eighth inning of game three with the Phillies down 10-4. He allowed a single and walk but kept the Rays off the board.

Lidge took Escalona’s roster spot for game three but did not pitch.

Nobody in the pen has thrown more than one day in a row. Durbin threw 54 pitches last night and Taschner 35, so I would guess you won’t be seeing either of them tonight.

The Phillies scored 15 runs in the three-game series.

Rollins made a great play in game one and a miserable play in game two. In game one he made a great catch on a ball off the catwalk. With two outs and the bases loaded in the bottom of the eighth in game two, Burrell hit a slow ground ball to short. Rollins had time to get Burrell at first, but instead underhanded to second and the runner beat it out, allowing a run to score. The Rays blew the game open from there.

He didn’t start last night. 0-for-9 in the series. 0-for-his-last-19. He’s hitting 211/254/328 for the year.

Victorino was 2-for-10 with three walks in the series. 300/366/456 for the year.

Utley was 4-for-11 with a double and a home run in the series. He’s hitting 300/430/555 for the season. One home run in his last 51 at-bats.

Howard was 2-for-11 with two doubles and three RBI. 254/329/551. He has one home run in his last 37 at-bats.

Werth grounded into a big double-play in game two of the set. With the Phils down 2-0, Matt Garza walked the bases loaded to start the fourth inning. Werth came to the plate and swung at the first pitch, hitting a ground ball to third that the Rays turned into a third to home to first double-play. 3-for-11 with a home run in the series. He’s at 257/344/460 for the year.

Feliz was 2-for-11 with two singles in the series. 289/332/398. He’s 4-for-his-last-35 with four singles. He has one walk since May 23 and has gotten 112 at-bats since May 23.

Mayberry started the first game of the series and was 2-for-5 with a home run in the set. 320/346/760 in 25 at-bats on the year.

Coste played first base in game one with Howard at DH. 1-for-5 in the series. 242/337/396 for the year.

Ruiz caught all three games of the series and went 1-for-10 with a single and four strikeouts. 248/359/391 for the season.

Bruntlett started at shortstop yesterday with Rollins on the bench. He’s not really the guy you want starting against a righty like Sonnanstine, what with the career .276 on-base percentage against righties. 0-for-4 with a strikeout in the series. 145/234/218 for the year.

Dobbs played first base in games two and three. 3-for-8 with three singles in the set. His line is up to 233/288/425 on the season. He’s hitting 343/333/657 in June without a walk.

Stairs started in left in game two and threw Upton out trying to tag and score from third in the bottom of the eighth inning with the Phillies down 2-1. He also started in left in game three. 2-for-5 with a double in the series. 288/431/500 in 52 at-bats for the season. He’s on pace to get 120 at-bats for the year.

Bako did not play in the series and is 1-for-3 with the Phils on the season.

Burrell played for Tampa Bay in the series. 3-for-11 with a double, a home run and four RBI. He’s hitting 243/354/324 on the season. Coming into the series he hadn’t had an extra-base hit since May 2 against the Red Sox.

Hit ‘em where they ain’ter

You always hear people saying things like, “He should hit the ball on the ground and use his speed.” I’m sure they know what they’re talking about, but it always seemed to me like whoever he is he might be better off to hit it in the air and use the fact that there are three guys out there instead of five and they have a whole lot more ground to cover.

Either way, things don’t go real well when you hit the ball to the infield, almost no matter who you are. As a team the Phillies have had 900 plate appearances this season where they’ve hit the ball to the infield. They’re 50-for-875 (.057) in those plate appearances (nothing in this post includes results from last night).

Jimmy Rollins isn’t especially good or bad when he hits the ball to the infield. Over the past three seasons he’s 36-for-621 when he hits the ball to the infield (.058). He’s hit .051 this year, .063 last year and .058 the year before that.

The problem, though, is how much he hits the ball to the infield. Remembering that Rollins was fantastic in 2007, a little less fantastic in ’08 and less fantastic still so far in ’09, here’s the number of plate appearances he’s hit the ball to the infield, his total number of plate appearances and the percentage of plate appearances he’s hit balls to the infield over the past three years:

Year PA hit to
Total PA % to
2009 139 316 44.0
2008 243 625 38.9
2007 243 778 31.2

Again, he (like just about everyone else) consistently can’t get a hit if he hits the ball to the infield, but the percentage of his plate appearances where he does has gone up from 31.2% in 2007 to 44.0% so far this season. In 2007 he hit the ball to the infield 243 times — if he gets the same 778 plate appearances in 2009 and continues to hit the ball to the infield at the same rate he has so far he will get about 342 plate appearances where he hits the ball on the infield. That’s 99 more plate appearances.

Rollins leads the team in plate appearance, but there are eight other guys who have gotten at least 100 plate appearances this season. The 44% of his plate appearances that Rollins has hit the ball to the infield is more than any of them:

Player PA hit to
Total PA % to
Victorino 123 310 39.7
Howard 73 302 24.2
Utley 76 297 25.6
Werth 85 291 29.2
Ibanez 81 280 28.9
Feliz 95 261 36.4
Ruiz 47 151 31.1
Coste 36 104 34.6

This says that the Phillies will bring Lidge back from the DL today. Also says Eyre, eligible to return on Saturday, may return soon and that Ibanez is eligible to return July 3 (next Friday).

Pen out of tune in June

Just about everyone watching the Phillies these days has the same reaction: Man, the starting pitchers sure are throwing well. Okay, maybe not so much. Maybe that hasn’t really been anyone’s reaction. Maybe everyone’s been too stunned watching Marco Scutaro run around the bases to notice much of anything. Still, the starting pitching had been much better in June than it was in the two previous months even before Moyer pitched well last night (nothing in this post includes numbers from last night’s game):

Month IP ER H BB ERA Ratio
April 107.7 76 144 37 6.35 1.68
May 158.0 97 169 51 5.53 1.39
June 115.3 51 125 32 3.98 1.36
Total 381.0 224 438 120 5.29 1.46

Granted, there was a lot of room for improvement given that the starters put up a 6.35 ERA in April. But improve they have. The 3.96 ERA in the first 19 June starts is downright impressive — should be more than good enough given the offense. The walk rate for the starters has gone down as the season has progressed as well. They walked 3.1 hitters per nine innings in April, 2.9 in May and 2.5 so far this month.

Not counting last night, the Phillies have gotten 11 quality starts in 19 games in June (57.9%), including six in a row to start the month. They got 20 quality starts in 48 games before the start of June (41.7%).

Less impressive is what the bullpen has done this month:

Month IP ER H BB ERA Ratio
April 71.3 36 56 37 4.54 1.30
May 93.3 31 82 43 2.99 1.34
June 65.0 34 74 40 4.71 1.75
Total 229.7 101 212 120 3.96 1.45

Phillies relievers have a ridiculous 1.75 ratio for the month as the rates at which they allow both hits and walks have skyrocketed. They’ve allowed 10.2 hits per nine innings and 5.5 walks per nine innings. Both those numbers are real bad. To help put “real bad” into context, the Pirates had the worst bullpen in the NL by ERA in 2008. In 567 2/3 innings they allowed 277 walks and 573 hits. That’s a rate of 9.1 hits per nine innings and 4.4 walks per nine. Not including last night’s games, the Nats have the worst pen in the NL by ERA — in ’09 Washington has allowed 5.0 walks per nine innings and 9.7 hits per nine.

This says that Ibanez is hopeful he can be activated from the DL on July 3.

Brad Lidge guesses the Phillies will activate him tomorrow.

All things being equal, I’d rather they not be in Philadelphia

It’s been a miserable couple of weeks for the Phillies as they’ve struggled badly at home and against teams from the American League. The runs they’ve scored as a team are down compared to the first two months of the season:

Games R/Game
April 119 20 5.95
May 148 28 5.29
June 89 19 4.68
Season 356 67 5.31

Compared to the rest of the season, or at least last month, the pitching has been bad but not that much worse:

Games RA/Game
April 112 20 5.60
May 133 28 4.75
June 91 19 4.79
Season 336 67 5.01

Allowing 4.79 runs per game is still bad, it’s just not terrible compared to what the team had done the rest of the season. If the Phillies allowed 4.79 runs per game over 162 games they would give up 776 for the year. In 2008 they allowed 680 runs. Five NL teams allowed more than 776. Their best month of the year in terms of preventing runs so far has been May. In May they allowed 4.75 runs per game — if they allowed runs at that rate over 162 games they would allow about 770 over 162 games, which is still 90 more than they allowed in 2008.

Finally, given how awful the recent home stand was it is easy to forget that the Phillies started the month with a 7-3 road trip in which they got fantastic pitching. The hitting wasn’t real impressive in the nine games at home, but the problems the Phils have had winning at Citizens Bank Park this season still have a lot more to do with pitching than they do with hitting. Here’s how the runs the Phils have scored and allowed at home and away break down for June:

  G RS per game RA per game
Home 9 38 4.22 60 6.67
Away 10 51 5.10 31 3.10
Total 19 89 4.68 91 4.79

It’s real tough to win when you allow more than six runs per game. On the other hand, the Phils have scored more than five runs a game on the road and the pitching has been outstanding in the games away from Philly. In ten games the Phillies have allowed 31 runs.

Condrey was put on the DL and Escalona called up.

This says the Phillies are hopeful that Howard will be able to play today.

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