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38 special?
By egrissom | February 1, 2009
As ugly as things were for Kyle Kendrick last year, I still think he has a good shot to beat out Chan Ho Park, JA Happ and Carlos Carrasco and win the fifth starter’s job this spring. A big part of the reason I think so is the simple fact that the Phils win games when Kendrick pitches. Over the past two years they’ve won about as often with Kendrick on the mound as they have with Cole Hamels on the mound (Hamels has him nipped, but not by much).
As a group, the seven pitchers below have combined to go 157-120 over the past two years (a .567 winning percentage). The Phils as a team have gone 181-143 (.559). The group of seven has made about 85.5% of the starts.
Here’s the Phillies record in games started by the seven pitchers over the past two seasons:
2007 |
2008 |
Total |
|||||
| Player | W | L | W | L | W | L | PCT |
| Myers | 0 | 3 | 12 | 18 | 12 | 21 | .364 |
| Hamels | 19 | 9 | 19 | 14 | 38 | 23 | .623 |
| Eaton | 15 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 23 | 26 | .469 |
| Moyer | 18 | 15 | 22 | 11 | 40 | 26 | .606 |
| Kendrick | 13 | 7 | 18 | 12 | 31 | 19 | .620 |
| Happ | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | .800 |
| Blanton | - | - | 9 | 4 | 9 | 4 | .692 |
Outstanding numbers for Hamels, Moyer and Kendrick. Blanton and Happ have also had good results in fewer starts. Eaton and Myers have both had less luck — the team’s winning percentage in the games that Myers started is particularly low.
Even in his largely miserable 2008 campaign, the Phillies continued to win games with Kendrick on the mound. Their 18-12 mark, a .600 winning percentage, was better both than their winning percentage for the year and in the games that were started by Hamels. In Hamels’ starts in ‘08, the Phils went 19-14, a .576 winning percentage.
Notable also when you look at the 2008 numbers is that the Phils went a fantastic 22-11 in Moyer’s 33 starts.
The bad new is that Kendrick isn’t magic. The runs the Phillies scored offensively were not distributed evenly across all the starters — some starters have received far more runs from the offense than others. Here’s how many runs the Phillies have scored in games started by each of the seven pitchers (over the last two years the Phils have scored 1,691 runs in 324 games, about 5.22 runs per game):
| Player | RS | GS | RS/GS |
| Myers | 144 | 33 | 4.36 |
| Hamels | 301 | 61 | 4.93 |
| Eaton | 225 | 49 | 4.59 |
| Moyer | 346 | 66 | 5.24 |
| Kendrick | 307 | 50 | 6.14 |
| Happ | 22 | 5 | 4.40 |
| Blanton | 73 | 13 | 5.62 |
Monster offensive production behind Kendrick, but Blanton also had some hitters behind him as well. The 5.24 runs the Phillies have scored in Moyer’s 66 starts over the last two years is very similar to the 5.22 runs per game the Phils have scored overall over the past two seasons.
Hamels, Eaton and Myers all have gotten less runs from the offense than the team averaged. For Myers, the average number of runs scored by the team in games that he started was close to a full run lower than the number of runs they scored overall.
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Topics: pitching |
February 2nd, 2009 at 1:31 am
Solid post.
Kendrick = wins.
February 2nd, 2009 at 8:24 am
Kendrick = Lucky
The Phillies can NOT continue to score a run more per game when he starts than when another pitcher starts. They just can’t. If they could just dial it up and score six runs whenever they wanted, they would average 6 runs a game. This is not saying I don’t think that Kendrick is the best option of the potential 5th starters (since Happ will likely be the second lefty in the pen), it’s just that it seems some people believe he has some mythical quality that allows him to win games. He doesn’t.
February 2nd, 2009 at 9:34 am
I definitely agree that the reason that the Phillies record is so good when Kendrick starts is because they score so many more runs. And that probably is luck.
I think there’s a chance that it isn’t, though. It does seem possible that the Phillies offensive approach as a team is different when Kendrick is on the mound and different in a way that results in more runs scored. I think Manuel does sometimes use lineups designed to prevent the other team from scoring runs and sometimes use lineups focused on scoring more runs. I don’t think that the fact that the Phillies win a lot when Kendrick starts should be disregarded completely, although I think it is hard to know how important it is.
If it were true that the Phillies are more likely to play their better hitters/worse fielders when Kendrick starts (I’m not saying it is), that could partially explain why they score more runs with him on the mound. Similarly, worse defensive players could also hurt his numbers as a pitcher.
February 2nd, 2009 at 4:15 pm
[…] Phils #5 starter spot is up for grabs between JA Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Chan Ho Park, and Carlos Carrasco. I don’t know what […]
February 2nd, 2009 at 6:18 pm
I agree with your points on ‘possible that the Phillies offensive approach as a team is different when Kendrick is on the mount’
its a funny game and who knows how people tick over 162 games…maybe they all want to score runs for him since he was Punked so bad by Myers…and maybe they are pissed at Myers so they score less for him.
Kidding of course…but i think the mind in the game and the motivation is something hard to put a finger on.
I have a sneaky suspicion that Park will be the 5th starter to start the season.
What I would love though…and my guess is Phils would love also is Kendrick to get his stuff on track, and be a solid #5 starter and Park out of the Pen. If you had to choose Park or Kendrick out of the Pen, its Park hands down no? I just don’t see Kendrick as a pen guy…and if Kendrick is starting that would mean his stuff is working (or everyone just keeps scoring lots of runs for him)
February 2nd, 2009 at 9:41 pm
Whether it’s Park or Kendrick (or someone else) might not matter that much. Whoever starts the year in the rotation, I think the other guy has a good chance to make some starts on the season.
I don’t think the Phils would put Kendrick in the pen. He’s been almost exclusively a starter in the minors and majors and he’s still just 24. I think if he doesn’t make the rotation to start the year they’ll want him to keep working as a starter in the minors.
February 3rd, 2009 at 9:27 am
I actually wouldn’t mind seeing him in Lehigh Valley this year. He seems to be a one trick pony, and it would be nice if he could develop an effective second trick…like a breaking ball of some sort that doesn’t scream “HIT ME” on the way to the plate. I’m rooting for the guy to do it, and he is certainly young enough.
February 3rd, 2009 at 10:21 am
Given that he’s so young, I don’t think that sending him back to the minors is a bad idea. I wouldn’t forget that he had tremendous success in 2007, though. I would give him a lot more chances with the Phils before I gave up on him.
February 3rd, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Agreed on all points…I think I heard them saying they want him to develop a better change up.