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Good Burrells go to heaven, but the bad Burrells go everywhere
By egrissom | December 12, 2008
Disappointing news this morning as Jayson Stark reports the Phillies have agreed to a three year, $30 million deal with 36-year-old left-handed outfielder Raul Ibanez. Ibanez is a very good hitter, but so was longtime Phillie Pat Burrell. It’s hard to imagine the financial commitment the Phils appear to be willing to make to Ibanez is much less than it would have taken to bring back Burrell. The Phils will apparently be paying Ibanez about $10 million a year when he’s 39 years old and will give up a draft pick to bring him in.
The addition leaves the Phils just about naked from the right side of the plate. Jayson Werth was fantastic in 2008. The second-best right-handed hitter on the team is Pedro Feliz, Chris Coste or Ronny Paulino. Take your pick. Switch-hitter Shane Victorino hit lefties well last season, 282/345/537. Fellow switchy Jimmy Rollins was a little better against righties than lefties. He hit 288/341/436 against left-handed pitching. The Phillies needed two right-handed bats without the addition of Ibanez. Still do, and if Ibanez joins the team there’s less places for them to play.
None of this is Raul Ibanez’s fault. Ibanez has pumped out at least 20 home runs four years in a row and put up 338 RBI in the last three years. He strikes out far less often than Burrell — over his career, Ibanez has struck out in 787 of his 5,301 plate appearances, which is about 14.8 percent of the time. Burrell has struck out 1,273 times in 5,388 plate appearances, about 23.6 percent of the time. It should also be pointed out that Ibanez has put up his recent numbers at Safeco Field, which is not a particularly good place to hit. Curiously, however, in three of the last four years his numbers have been better at Safeco than away.
Other than his age, the downside with Ibanez as an offensive player as I see it is his 268/322/411 career line against left-handed pitching. That .733 OPS is worse than Burrell’s 251/352/467 (.819 OPS) against his same side. Burrell’s .950 career OPS against his opposite side (left) of .950 is also better than the .849 OPS Ibanez has put up against righties. There are more right-handed pitchers than left, though, and Ibanez pounded lefties in 2008. In 2008 he hit 305/368/497 against left-handed pitching, after hitting a miserable 256/294/356 against them in 2007 and a miserabler 243/301/362 against them in 2006.
Interesting question about who will hit behind Howard in 2009 for the Phils. The answer is almost surely Jayson Werth at this point, assuming Utley and Howard continue to hit three-four.
It’s a little tough to separate how this will affect the Phillies on the field and the disappointment with the realization that it means Burrell won’t be back. I do think Burrell is the better hitter and will be this year as well, but not by a huge amount. All the left-handed hitters is a problem for the Phils that needs a solution. Overall, though, I would have to disagree with Amaro who suggested previously in relation to Burrell that it was not the time to be sentimental. I think it was a perfect time to be sentimental.
Cole Hamels has some stuff to say about the Mets and their ability to finish. Interesting question for me has been how Hamels is going to motivate himself after winning the World Series and being named the MVP of the NLCS and World Series all before he turned 25. That may be the answer.
If you’re every wondering if the article about Brad Harman you’re reading is from an Australian news source, learning that he was “overawed” by facing Randy Johnson and that Tim Lincecum throws 150km/h (that’s 90 miles an hour) should clue you in. No word on how things came out between Victoria and Queensland, though.
This suggests that Derek Lowe will get about four years, $65 million.
This says the Brewers are interested in Jamie Moyer.
Topics: 2009 Phillies, offense |
December 12th, 2008 at 11:24 am
Man, i got up this morning and learned the news as well. Although I am not down on Ibanez, I just dont understand the logic. He hits lefty. I thought the understanding was that the Phils needed a right bat outfielder?? and 30 mil over 3 years for 36 yr old seems like an awful lot. I will say that Ibanez has done nothing to think that he will not produce but it just doesnt seem to fit right now for me.
I was surprised to listen to Hamels comments. I would have liked to hear the whole thing though. was it more of the questioner prodding him to agree with whatever he was asking him or was it Hamels coming out and saying it? I have to think that the questioner was prodding like crazy to get Hamels to agree with him. I hate when they do that. I just dont think of Hamels as a guy who would say that. But in a sneaky way, i agree with him….
The Moyer interest from other teams is starting to bother me. Why cant this just get done and get him signed? we just paid a 36 yr old 30 mil/3yr, might as well sign a 46(?) for 20 mil/2yr. Loosing out on Moyer now would really put the Phils in a tough spot.
December 12th, 2008 at 11:29 am
Is miserabler a word?
I really dislike this signing. The Phils are going to have a really hard time against lefties next year, and every team is going to know it. Things get even scarier if (when?) Werth goes down for an extended period of time with an injury. Unless Ruben has some magic up his sleave for a huge RH bat at 3B and a way to get rid of Pete Happy, I just don’t understand it.
Can we just sign Moyer and be done with it for cryin’ out loud?
December 12th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
The only positive spin I can put on this is that they feel that the closest position prospects(Taylor, Donald and Marson ) are all right handed hitters(Whom I’m very high on). So maybe they feel they will be a part of the big club soon. One other positive, Ibanez career avg. against Santana .353 and against F-Rod .318.
December 12th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
I’m high on those three guys too, but Taylor has never batted above A ball, and you’ve now essentially blocked him with Ibanez. Donald and Marson would be replacing other right-handed hitters in the lineup (assuming Donald at 3B since he’s not replacing Utley or Rollins).
December 12th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Donald is the guy of the players that GKit mentioned that I’m most excited about for 2009. I still think the Phils find a veteran to play 2B till Utley gets back, but I’m thinking it a little less these days. I think it’s possible that the Phillies are already thinking of Donald as a right-handed hitter on the team. I think Ruiz has to hit in ‘09 to keep from losing his job to Marson. I’m a lot more excited about Donald and Marson in the near-term than I am about Taylor.
I definitely agree they should just sign Moyer for cryin out loud.
I’m pretty sure miserabler isn’t a word. I actually think Ibanez can hit, just would have rather had Burrell. I think Greg’s Werth is going to get hurt point is a good one, too. Phillies clearly need to add a right-handed hitter.
I don’t dislike Ibanez at all, just would have rather had Burrell. Ibanez is also kind of a butcher with the glove. It will be interesting what Burrell gets — I think it’ll be more than the 3/$30 million for Ibanez. We’ll see how much more.
I thought the Hamels comments were interesting too. After the huge post-season for Hamels I wonder if he is going to emerge as the team leader. Not sure that would be a good thing for the Phillies.
December 12th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
yea, Burell looks good on paper, but don’t forget how we would lose his bat late in games (i know you did not like that move) but there were a few plays I know he would not have gotten to that Bruntlett did.
I am fine with Ibanez, but here is my question, what role does Jenkis and Staris have now??
I also love the thought of Donald and Marson playing some type of role in 09. But over all…just want the wins.
and yup…SIGN MOYER!
lets see how much Pat gets if its like 12 for 3 years we will all be pissed
December 12th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
That’s a really good point about taking Burrell out of the game late. Even if that is a bad play it does decrease Burrell’s value. Keeping Bruntlett out of left field is a good thing for sure.
I do think Burrell is good on the field, too, not just on paper.
I still think there’s not enough room on the team for all of Stairs, Jenkins and Dobbs. I think that even more with the addition of Ibanez. That’s a lot of lefties.
December 12th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
PS- let me officially thank Pat for his years of service…especially his final AB for Phils.
lots of nice/big hits…
One of my favorites was a bottom of the 9th HR vs Billy. I had just rolled into a bar in Philly (i live in nyc) and about 2 innings and 4 beers into watching the game he knocked one out to tied it. We later won the game.
Full count 2 outs, when he hit it I jumped up and screamed and scared the entire bar. I guess they are spoiled by watching so many Phils games on TV not spotty mlb.com online service like me
December 12th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Yeah. Lots of good Burrell memories. The double off the top of the wall to start the 7th in game five of the WS is at the top for me. Gotta love beating the catcher to the mound when the Phillies made the post-season in ‘07 too.
December 12th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Here’s to Pat. Thanks for the service and memories. If only you could of found the right shoe…
December 12th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
If I have read the team stats at ESPN correctly, in 2008 the Phillies had an OPS of .801 against lefties and an OPS of .757 against righties (with far more AB, of course). So which way did they need to improve, anyway? I’m not too worried about that stuff. I certainly wouldn’t have minded seeing Burrell out there in 2009, but I think this may turn out to be a good deal. Maybe now that they don’t need a caddy for Burrell anymore, they can keep Coste on the roster as a utility man, 3rd catcher and right-handed bat off the bench.
December 12th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
I don’t think it’s a disaster either. Will miss Burrell, though. It will be interesting to see what Ibanez does defensively. “Oaf” comes up a lot when you read about his defensive skills. Hopefully he’s a lot better than Burrell and stays on the field the whole game.
The team OPS point vs left and right is interesting. One thing you do have to remember about the lefties, though, is partly that they were good against lefties last year because of Burrell. If you take his 279/406/545 in 154 at-bats against lefties out of their numbers, they hit 255/329/456 (.785 OPS) against lefties as a team. Still good, but not quite as good.
December 12th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
If Werth is batting 5th then Ibanez will bat 6th. Having assume this (one never knows with Uncle Cholly) the Phillies have the proper r/l balance. Call me crazy, if Utley doesnt start the season, I would lead-off Victorino and bat J-Roll third. My guess would be that Bruntlett fills in for Chase. I dont know who bat second, its either Bruntlett or Ibanez. I could vision both Victorino and J-Roll excel. To me, Shane could be a great lead-off and Jimmy’s hitting style is more suited to 2nd OR 3rd. That could mean when Utley returns he could bat 2nd?! Call me crazy again but a starting line-up with 1. Victorino CF S/H 2. Utley 2B L/H 3. Rollins SS S/H 4. Howard 1B L/H 5. Werth RF R/H 6. Ibanez LF L/H 7. Feliz 3B R/H 8. Ruiz C R/H is a starting pitchers nightmare. You have a balance of speed and power, you can manufacture and steal runs and you can just plain wear out every pitcher they see! How ’bout it boys…Dynasty? Call me Crazy!!
December 12th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
I don’t think that’s crazy at all. I love Rollins hitting third on paper. I’d be a little worried just cause he’s been so bad hitting third over his career — 248/293/357 in 140 plate appearances. Don’t know if that’s enough plate appearances to draw a conclusion, but it’s enough to worry me a little. Also, just seeing Feliz/Ruiz at the end of the lineup just makes me shudder. I had two months to forget and then it all comes back.