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If you want to see what God thinks of money, just look at all the people He gave it to (Dorothy Parker)
By egrissom | December 4, 2008
Pat Burrell had a big contract in 2008 and he’s going to have a big contract in 2009. He’s not much of a defensive player, but does he produce offense at levels similar to other highly paid hitters? In 2008, Burrell made $14.25 million and posted an OPS+ of 125. Using the salary data that you can access here, I compared his OPS+ to 40 non-pitchers who made $12 million or more in ‘08.
Some problems with this, including: 1) it ignores defense 2) even if Burrell is as good an offensive player as the other guys making a lot of money they could all be overpaid. Nate McLouth, for example, made $425,000 in 2008 and was arguably a more productive offensive player than at least 30 of the 41 players on the lists below and 3) I’m comparing the OPS+ of National League players to the OPS+ of American League players. That’s a problem as the formula for OPS+ compares a player’s on-base percentage and slugging to the on-base and slugging percentages for their league rather than for both leagues combined. I have put the OPS+ for AL players in red.
All that said, here it is:
|
Made at least $12M in ‘08 but OPS+ lower than Burrell |
|||
Player |
Salary |
AB |
OPS+ |
| Carlos Guillen | 12.0 | 420 | 114 |
| Jose Guillen | 12.0 | 598 | 96 |
| Paul Konerko | 12.0 | 438 | 102 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 12.379 | 398 | 87 |
| Mike Lowell | 12.5 | 419 | 103 |
| Troy Glaus | 12.5 | 544 | 124 |
| Garrett Anderson | 12.6 | 557 | 97 |
| David Ortiz | 13.0 | 416 | 123 |
| Hideki Matsui | 13.0 | 337 | 108 |
| Johnny Damon | 13.0 | 555 | 118 |
| Jorge Posada | 13.1 | 168 | 103 |
| Derrek Lee | 13.25 | 623 | 110 |
| Gary Sheffield | 13.326 | 418 | 90 |
| Adrian Beltre | 13.4 | 556 | 109 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 14.0 | 453 | 121 |
Unlike OPS+, sOPS+ allows us to compare a hitter’s right/left splits to all hitters in the major leagues rather than just other hitters in his league. Burrell’s sOPS+ against righties in ‘08 was 132, against lefties it was 144.
Looking at some of the players who were close to Burrell, Carlos Guillen’s sOPS+ right/left splits were 110/111.
David Ortiz’s were 136/110, suggesting that Ortiz was slightly better against righties and worse against lefties. Baseball Reference calculates Ortiz’s runs created at 79 for 2008 compared to 106 for Burrell.
Mike Lowell’s sOPS+ for ‘08 were 108/146. A little better than Burrell against lefties. More than a hundred fewer at-bats and fewer runs created.
Damon 128/104. Runs created of 104.
Glaus killed righties but not lefties, 147/97. Soriano was the opposite, 114/182. Both had lower runs created than Burrell.
|
Made at least $12M in ‘08 and had an OPS+ better than Burrell |
|||
| Player | Salary | AB | OPS+ |
| Chipper Jones | 12.33 | 439 | 174 |
| Mark Teixeira |
12.5 | 574 | 151 |
| Carlos Lee | 12.5 | 436 | 144 |
| Adam Dunn | 13.0 | 517 | 129 |
| Albert Pujols | 13.87 | 524 | 190 |
| JD Drew | 14.0 | 368 | 137 |
Burrell did have a better runs created than either JD Drew or Carlos Lee, though, because those players had significantly fewer at-bats in ‘08 than Burrell. Chipper also had many fewer at-bats but created more runs.
Dunn’s sOPS+ right/left were 143/121.
Here’s the players that made as much or more than the $14.25 million Burrell made in ‘08:
|
Made as much or more in ‘08 but OPS+ lower than or equal to Burrell |
|||
Player |
Salary |
AB |
OPS+ |
Pat Burrell |
14.25 |
536 |
125 |
Andruw Jones |
14.726 |
209 |
34 |
Miguel Tejada |
14.811 |
362 |
92 |
Richie Sexson |
15.5 |
280 |
89 |
Jim Thome |
15.66 |
503 |
123 |
Bobby Abreu |
16.0 |
609 |
120 |
Torii Hunter |
16.5 |
551 |
110 |
Todd Helton |
16.6 |
299 |
100 |
Ichiro Suzuki |
17.102 |
686 |
102 |
Derek Jeter |
21.6 |
596 |
102 |
Thome’s sOPS+ was 123/142, again worse than Burrell’s 132/144. Created fewer runs than Burrell.
Torii Hunter 118/122.
The lefty Abreu was better against lefties than righties in ‘08, 114/146. His runs created were very similar to Burrell’s — the same using the formula that Baseball-Reference is using and better using the formula used by ESPN’s baseball stats.
These guys made more money than Burrell and put up a better OPS+:
|
Made more money than Burrell and had a better OPS+ |
|||
Player |
Salary |
AB |
OPS+ |
Lance Berkman |
14.5 |
554 |
159 |
Aramis Ramirez |
15.0 |
554 |
128 |
Vlad Guerrero |
15.5 |
541 |
130 |
Rafael Furcal |
15.73 |
143 |
164 |
Magglio Ordonez |
15.768 |
561 |
127 |
Carlos Delgado |
16.0 |
598 |
127 |
Carlos Beltran |
16.0 |
598 |
127 |
Manny Ramirez |
18.929 |
552 |
164 |
Jason Giambi |
23.428 |
458 |
128 |
Alex Rodriguez |
28.0 |
510 |
150 |
Aramis Ramirez comes out on top of Burrell because he pounded right-handed pitching. 163/87. Like Ramirez, Carlos Delgado was better than Burrell, but it was close. Delgado did have a better runs created, but Burrell’s sOPS+ right/left splits are a little better than Delgado’s 133/122. Delgado hit for a higher average, .271 to .250, and outslugged Burrell .518 to .507. He also hit five more home runs (38 for Delgado and 33 for Burrell) and drove in 115 runs to Burrell’s 86.
Burrell created more runs than Furcal, who had just 143 at-bats on the season. He also, however, had a better runs created than Vlad Guerrero (whose sOPS+ right/left were 150/112), Jason Giambi (127/140) or Magglio Ordonez (140/125).
This article points out that Jermaine Dye has a no-trade clause and that the Phillies are one of the teams on his no-trade list.
The Braves are expected to finalize their trade for Javier Vazquez today. This article suggests that the Braves may also offer AJ Burntett a five-year deal and that the Phillies have made an offer to Derek Lowe.
Topics: offense |
December 4th, 2008 at 11:08 am
So, saying all of this…what do you think, 3 years - $40 million?
December 4th, 2008 at 11:32 am
Not sure any of us have the information we’d need to make much of anything other than a wild guess. That said, my wild guess would be three years, $36-$40 million for the Phillies and three years, $40-$45M for another team. Even taking three years, $40 million from the Phils would be a pay cut for Burrell. 14.25 X 3 = 42.75. So I really don’t know.
December 4th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
Just to thow another POV in the mix:
ok given the Lowe talk today…say you don’t sign Burrell.
you have Werth as your #5 hitter, which as we saw can be a good thing. Or Vic down there if Werth is #2. Both have proven they can perform and Howard will not get complete junk thrown at him.
Pat has a sweet on base % yes, but I think Werth can step in to back up Howard at #5.
I guess the question…if it were between Lowe and Pat who would you sign? And why?
December 4th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
i guess the question is who makes the team better. Right?
Again this is all guess work…neither one is anything close to a done deal.
December 4th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
I actually think the decision for the Phils is between Moyer and Lowe (or some other starting pitcher) and I’m really going to be surprised if the Phillies get Lowe. I’d love to have either Lowe or Burrell, or both, but if I have to pick one I’d go with Burrell.
Werth was amazing last year and was just an oustanding pickup for Gillick. The Phillies wouldn’t have won the World Series without him and he was probably their best hitter of the post-season. But he came into the year as a platoon player. He’s going to turn 30 in May and has one season in his career with more than 340 at-bats. I don’t think you can count on him to hit in the five-hole every day. Burrell has more home runs over the past two seasons than Werth does in his career.
December 5th, 2008 at 8:38 am
I agree with Eric. If I had to choose between spending money on only Lowe or Burrell, I think losing Burrell leaves the bigger hole on your team. I’m afraid of counting on Werth to be a full-season replacement, but I *think* the Phils can scratch together enough starting pitching between Happ/Kendrick/Carrasco to be competitive (also assuming no Moyer).
December 5th, 2008 at 11:58 am
I think you have to think about it not whether Burrell or Lowe helps you more but whether Burrell and whoever the Phils would put in the rotation would help you more than Lowe and whoever they would put in left field in a Burrell-free world. I would be worried about who is going to hit from the right side on a Phillies team without Burrell. Basically it’s Werth and Feliz. Feliz is a weak offensive player. Werth was great last year, but I think I think it could cause trouble if you need to rely on him to produce like that again.
December 5th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
agreed, and good way to look at it…who would perform compared to Burrell or Lowe.
I have very strong faith in Werth though…and think he can handle it, small sample size I know, but my gut tells me he is the real deal, not just a career year. In fact I think he has even more to give. I can see him being a .290 with 25 HR for years to come.
Book it
December 5th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
Is it me or is it that the big boys (Manny, Tex) havent signed yet, but digging around looking for MLB rumors, I just have not found much interest in Burrell. I realize his D is not great but you would think these AL teams with money to spend would be chomping at the bit for a 30 HR 100 RBI guy (that doesnt cost the bank) and he would be drawing all sorts of interest. I guess all in all, there just isnt much happening and until the Manny’s and CC’s and Tex’s of the world sign, no other big name will go either. hopefully this means a better chance for the Phils for Burrell too.
I think I am on the side of singing Burrell over Lowe. I cant base it on much other than a gut feeling of bad news if Lowe signs for big money. It just seems as if the Phils get more bang for their buck with inhouse and ’second rate’ guys as of late than paying the $$ to the prizes. I know there are arguments to both sides but I would rather have 1 Victorino over 100 Eatons.
December 5th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
It does seem a little slow. I think the Phils haven’t done a whole lot for Burrell’s value by replacing him late in games with Eric Bruntlett. Still, there’s not a whole lot of news about a bunch of players, so I don’t think Burrell should be taking it personally. Somebody’s going to want him.