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2009 on the mind
By egrissom | November 13, 2008
Back to the managers soon.
I put up the 2009 Phillies page, where I will track my best guess at who will be on the ‘09 squad.
It looks to me like there are seven spots open for next year, three for pitchers and four for hitters.
Of the pitcher’s spots, two are in the starting rotation behind Hamels, Myers and Blanton. Jamie Moyer looks like a good bet to take one of them. I would still call Kendrick the front-runner for the #5 spot, with Happ behind him and Eaton way, way behind both of them.
The other spot appears to be for a right-handed relief pitcher. Romero and Eyre look likely to handle the left-handed duties, joining righties Lidge, Madson, Condrey and Durbin in the pen. That leaves one spot, and I’m guessing it goes to a righty veteran reliever not currently with the organization. It could be Gordon or Seanez, but I would still go with field as a better guess at this point.
The bigger questions are with the offense. I think there’s a good chance the Phils will bring back Burrell. They should try and I think they will. His absence would leave a huge gap in the lineup, leaving Werth as the best right-handed hitter on the team. Werth is great, but the second-best right-handed hitter on the team would be Feliz, which is not great. Again, we’ll have to cut Feliz at least a little break what with winning the World Series and whatnot.
The emergence of Werth as an everyday player has created a problem for the Phillies with a lack of right-handed options off the bench. They went out of their way to demonstrate this by starting Chris Coste as their DH in the World Series. I think you can argue that the Phillies need two right-handed hitters, a big one, like Burrell, to play left, and another to backup the outfield and hit off the bench. The Phillies had a problem with not having enough right-handed hitters last year and that was with Burrell.
The Phillies either need Burrell back or they need a big right-handed bat in his place. Might as well just make it Burrell. I would be surprised if they traded for or signed an expensive right-handed free agent to play left field that wasn’t Burrell. My guess is that one of the four remaining offensive slots will be taken either by Burrell or a cheap right-handed hitter who can play left field and will play often.
That leaves three spots — one catcher spot behind Ruiz, one more outfielder and another bench spot that will probably be taken by a fifth outfielder.
With Victorino, Werth and Burrell (or his replacement) in the outfield, the Phillies don’t look like they have room for all of Stairs, Jenkins and Golson. I think a disaster scenario for the Phils is one where they trade Victorino to let Golson play regularly in center field. Golson needs to be a fifth outfield if he’s on the team in ‘09 — if he is on the roster I think he will be. A less disastrous scenario in my mind is trading Victorino and letting Werth play center regularly with Golson backing him up. That plan is still a bit worrisome as it’s not a lot of backup for Werth, who still has limited experience playing every day. It would mean that Golson would probably get a job backing him up, but he wouldn’t have much of an organizational net behind him.
Werth can play center, though, well enough to be there regularly if the Phils had the hitters to man the corner outfield spots.
I would guess that the Phils will not start ‘09 with both Stairs and Jenkins on the team. Dobbs, Stairs and Jenkins is too many left-handed hitters coming off of the bench, especially given that Stairs and Dobbs are hard to use defensively. I’d guess they trade Stairs given that he’s cheaper and more tradable. I have Jenkins penciled in as the fourth outfielder, giving them Victorino, Werth, Jenkins and Burrell or cheap right-handed free agent.
I hope in 2009 we will see Dobbs’ role expand to include signficant time in the outfield against right-handed pitching.
Jenkins and Burrell are two of the four spots. Leaves one bench spot and a catcher.
Ruiz is surely coming back, but I feel much less sure about Coste. The in-house options for second catcher along with Ruiz include Coste, Jason Jaramillo and Lou Marson. Jaramillo was not especially impressive at Triple-A last year and Marson was at Double-A. Marson is 22, Jaramillo is 26. Some people think 19-year-old Travis D’Arnaud is going to be better than both of them, although there’s about zero chance you’ll see him next year. My guesses are 1) that the Phillies would only put Jaramillo or Marson on the 25-man roster to start the season if it was as a third catcher and 2) if they did it would be Jaramillo and not Marson. You have to believe that Jaramillo could be had in a trade if people really think he’s a potential regular player. Here’s what I think is likely for the Phils at catcher at this point, in order of likelihood 1) they sign a veteran catcher to share duties with Ruiz 2) Coste and Ruiz 3) Ruiz, Coste (or veteran catcher) plus Jaramillo 4) Ruiz plus Jaramillo.
The addition of the second catcher leaves one spot on the roster, which could be taken by a fifth outfielder, a third catcher or a pitcher. I think you can assume that Bruntlett will handle the utility role. 23-year-old Brad Harman is coming, but I don’t think it’s yet. This spot may go to Golson, but I don’t think it should. I’d go with a right-handed hitter here that can also play a corner outfield position — a part-time player that’s probably not currently in the organization.
Here’s my guess then at this point as to who will be on the 25-man roster when the ‘09 season starts:
Pitchers (12): Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Moyer, Kendrick, Lidge, Madson, Durbin, Condrey, Romero, Eyre and a veteran right-handed relief pitcher that is currently not with the organization.
Hitters (13): Howard, Utley, Rollins, Feliz, Ruiz, Burrell, Victorino, Werth, Jenkins, Bruntlett, Dobbs, veteran catcher not currently with the team, veteran right-handed corner outfielder not currently with the team.
Topics: 2009 Phillies |
November 13th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
My thoughts (am I the only one still reading?)
Pitchers: Include Happ and remove Kendrick. I see an outside chance that it is Carlos Carrasco as the fifth starter. Dream scenario is they put a package together for Peavy. Less dreamy scenario is that they sign Lowe.
Hitters: I think there is an outside chance that the Phillies don’t offer arbitration to Bruntlett and let Jason Donald be the utility guy next year. I think the more likely scenario is that they trade Donald for that veteran right handed reliever you mention in the pitchers slot (although I think that would be a huge mistake).
I also think that Coste and Jaramillo are both on the team. The Phils will try to get something for Jaramillo with a mid-season trade and bring up Lou Marson at that point. With all of the catchers this team already has though, I hope they don’t go out and sign a veteran back-up. Amaro seems to be in love with Marson, so I would think that he’ll get a pretty good shot at making the team. Dream scenario is that Marson and Ruiz are your catchers with about 70% of your innings going to Ruiz, Jaramillo is at AAA as insurance, and Coste (I hate to say this) is released/traded.
November 13th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
The logs say there are a bunch of people still out there. They are kinda quiet though.
I think Kendrick and Happ will both get a chance in ‘09. I would guess that Kendrick’s comes first, but the use of Happ in the playoffs seems to indicate the Phillies think he’s a big part of the mix. I would be really surprised if two of Kendrick, Happ and Carrasco were on the team to start ‘09 and I’d also be surprised if Carrasco jumped over Happ if the spot doesn’t go to Kendrick for old time’s sake.
I think the Phils, or at least Manuel, love Bruntlett.
The guy I’m not sure they love is Coste. I think the fact that Ruiz has started 17 of 17 playoff games behind the plate may say more about how they feel about Coste than about Ruiz. I think when you hear Manuel saying stuff like the guys who are always complaining about playing time aren’t going to play he’s not talking about Greg Dobbs.
Marson and Ruiz would be fun. I don’t think the Phils would feel comfortable with it, though.
I think Lowe or Peavy might be a dream, but it’s a good one. Either of those guys would help a ton. It might be enough that they don’t need Burrell or a great right-handed bat in left. I think they’ll focus on left field first.
November 14th, 2008 at 7:57 am
Greg Golson is not a major league hitter, and likely never will be. Unless, of course, MLB outlaws all breaking pitches.
November 14th, 2008 at 10:02 am
I’m still holding out a little hope for Golson just cause he’s still so young. It was nice to see him hit with at least some power last year, but he still has a .310 career on-base percentage in the minor leagues. I don’t think the Phillies should count on him for this year. Don’t think they will either.
November 14th, 2008 at 10:46 am
One thought on Victorino and that is that I would hate to see the Phils trade him. I would like to see him back at the 2 spot in the order as well. Rollins and him set the table. I agree that losing a big right handed bat like Burrell would be tough to do that though although I guess Werth (being the big bat, post Burrell) would move down to 5 hole or maybe even seperate Utley, Howard? All in all, I would hate to see Shane go. He seems to have the something about him that makes the team go. He brings everything he has every game and that says soemthing in todays MLB.
Saw a rumor this morning that linked the Phils to Jermaine Dye, that sure would make their OF interesting altough i would hate to see what they would have to give up for him.
Anyways, heres to Free Agency!
November 14th, 2008 at 10:55 am
I would hate to see Victorino go as well. I don’t think it makes sense given that the Phillies don’t have a legit bat for right field if they moved Werth to center anyway. On the other hand, if they could get one I don’t think Victorino’s trade value will ever be higher in his career. I would still be worried about the backup plan behind Werth as an everyday CF, though, so I don’t think I would trade Victorino unless 1) his trade value truly is fantastic and 2) I could come up with something in right field that was much, much better than the current choices — that seems a little unlikely given that they already have a problem at the other corner outfield postion.
I’d be disappointed if Burrell didn’t come back. If he didn’t, though, I think Dye makes a lot of sense. I want to do a post in the next few weeks about the right-handed corner outfielders that may be available who would be a reasonable replacement for Burrell if the Phils don’t bring him back. I think it will be a short list, but I think Dye will be on it. Still hoping the bring back Burrell — I think there’s a good chance.
November 14th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Yea…totally agree with Greg.
They do seem in love with Marson and isn’t the fact they put him on the roster later in the season show they think he is ready sooner than later…ie- will be up for arbitration sooner etc.
I am bigger fan of Happ then Kendrick…too bad Kendrick does not have much trade value. Maybe the White Sox think we don’t know what we are doing wtih our pitchers and want to salvage him for Dye!?!? haha…just kidding.
Dye would be sweet to have…same thing with Magglio. Have not heard any talk of him.
Hmmm…will they bring Pat back…if so I would prefer a 2 year deal with option for 3rd. That would be key…and not break the bank.
Please don’t trade Vic. Remember in Spring Training or whenever it was when Charlie called Vic in his office…I agree that Vic makes this team go…and when Jimmy is not going, Vic usually is. When Rowand left the team, I had a gut feeling that Vic would being that same intensity. And he has. Utley and Howard have such low key personalities and if Jimmy is down, we need Vic to bring that fire.
what about Durbin, no one has talked about him. He is FA isn’t he? Personally I like the guy…sure he fell off a bit, but he is still very good. Just hope he gets the rest he needs this off season, that guy worked his butt off.
oh and I also hope Mets don’t sign CC
November 14th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
I think it’s a good point about the intensity that Victorino brings and what it does for the Phillies. If the Phillies are going to try to add players by trade, though, they would need to do it at a position where they have organizational depth. I think really the places where they have that are center field, catchers in the minor leagues and maybe middle infield between Harman and Donald. I think it’s very unlikely the Phils will trade Victorino, cause I think they can address their few problems through free agency.
I agree about the Phils being more excited about Marson than Jaramillo, too, and that the callup of Marson while Jaramillo didn’t get one was telling. Still would guess that Jaramillo gets an extended chance first if neither is traded.
I think Durbin is arbitration-eligible in ‘09 and ‘10 and won’t be a free agent till 2011. Hopefully the dropoff at the end of the year was just fatigue, cause he was a huge part of a great Phils pen in ‘08. I wonder if the Phils would consider putting him in the mix for the fifth spot in the rotation. I would guess they wouldn’t give it much consideration, unless they didn’t bring Moyer back, but he was fantastic last year and a hole in the pen may be easier to overcome than a hole in the rotation.
November 14th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
way to get it going Greg, i needed that kick in the rear to get back to commenting. I have kept up with the site but I think im still in world bleeping champions mode. good stuff today and its going to be a interesting off season.
November 15th, 2008 at 3:05 am
Would be sweet to get Peavy but I don’t think he’s identified the Phils as a team he’d waive his no-trade clause for.
cafepress.com/phightinphasion
November 17th, 2008 at 10:04 am
I had seen that too about Peavy, which is why it is a dream scenario that a) the Phils can put the prospects together and b) he’s willing to waive the no-trade.