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Philadelphia movers vie for the chance to haul Blanton’s ERA cross country
By egrissom | July 18, 2008
The Phillies acquired 27-year-old right-handed pitcher Joe Blanton from the A’s for Josh Outman, Matthew Spencer and Adrian Cardenas. This article suggests that Blanton could take Eaton’s spot in the rotation with Eaton going to the pen.
Blanton has had a weak season pitching in a great pitcher’s park so far in 2008. He’s thrown to a 4.96 ERA with a 1.47 ratio. Righties are pounding him this year, on-basing .382 against him with a .496 slugging percentage. He has curiously shut down lefties, they’re on-basing .285 with a .384 slugging percentage.
Blanton has pitched for Oakland his entire career and has a 4.78 ERA with 1.43 ratio in the 60 games he has appeared in away from home.
On the plus side, Blanton is a highly-touted former first round pick that the A’s took with the 26th pick of the 2002 draft. He won’t turn 28 until December and has already put up two outstanding seasons, one in 2005 and one in 2007, in which he threw to an ERA under four with a 1.22 ratio. In 2005, at age 24, he threw 201 1/3 innings and was arguably the best starter in an Oakland rotation that saw Rich Harden, Barry Zito (the old Barry Zito) and Dan Haren all get at least 19 starts. Harden was better than him, but Blanton made 14 more starts and threw 73 more innings.
Back on the stuff to worry about front, here’s what right-handed batters have done against him over the past four seasons, remembering that 2005 and 2007 were the seasons he was really good:
|
Year |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| 2005 | 246 | 316 | 437 |
| 2006 | 304 | 353 | 453 |
| 2007 | 248 | 275 | 372 |
| 2008 | 328 | 382 | 496 |
I don’t understand why those numbers would fluctuate so badly. Where they are right now is just bad, and moving to Citizens Bank Park doesn’t seem likely to be the cure. Blanton has been solid against lefties for a while now — they hit 291/328/386 against him in ‘07 and 247/285/384 against him so far this season.
Overall, if forced to vote thumbs up or thumbs down on the deal for the Phils I would go thumbs up, simply because of the outstanding seasons from Blanton in the past, the Phillies’ current needs and the chance to keep him through 2010. I’m all for the Phillies trying to win right now and this is a right now move. I don’t have a problem with the Phillies trading Outman and Cardenas for the best pitcher they can get, but I’m a little surprised that the best pitcher they could get was a guy with a five ERA in Oakland. I think Oakland more clearly made a good deal than the Phillies did — I see it as riskier for the Phils but a risk worth taking if you are trying to win right now.
It does ensure that there is more Brett Myers to the pen talk coming. Hopefully the Phillies squash it quickly.
Finally, it’s hard not to consider this deal in the context of Kyle Lohse. If the Phillies had an opportunity to sign Lohse at $4.25 million this season and did not do it and instead had to trade away Outman and Cardenas to get Blanton they made a mistake. I don’t think there’s any argument that right now you’d rather have Lohse, Cardenas, Outman and Spencer instead of Blanton for the next two and a half seasons even given that you would have to pay Lohse more than you’ll have to pay Blanton in 2008.
The Phils are back in action tonight, tied with the Mets for first place in the NL East. Jamie Moyer (8-6, 3.95) faces righty Ricky Nolasco (10-4, 3.70) in Florida. Nolasco has allowed two or fewer runs in four consecutive starts, throwing to a 1.86 ERA his last four times out. The Marlins have won seven straight games that he has started. Over his last seven starts he hasn’t walked more than one hitter in any appearance. Right-handed batters have hit two home runs against him this season. Moyer hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last seven starts, but the Phils are just 1-4 in his last five times out. Righties are hitting .308 against him for the year compared to just .208 for lefties. In his nine starts away from Citizens Bank Park he has thrown to a 3.13 ERA.
Topics: Rotation |
July 18th, 2008 at 10:36 am
I really don’t know how much better Blanton makes the Phillies. Maybe a change of scenery will do him good, but I gotta believe that Cardenas could’ve gotten more in return.
July 18th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
I think it’s not as bad as the general consensus seems to be. Blanton’s thrown at least 190 innings in the majors every year since he was 24. Eaton has done it once in his career. Moyer was the only guy on the Phils to throw at least 190 last season, Myers the only guy on the team to do it in 2006. I don’t think it’s a sure thing he turns his ‘08 around, but it seems possible. Either way it should mean a break for the pen. I agree that my initial reaction was that the Phillies gave away a lot with Cardenas in the deal, but I don’t think it’s a bad idea to trade him now and I think you have to believe they have a good sense of what his value is to other teams.
July 18th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Maybe I am in the minority, but I am a big fan of the trade. With CC you have a half season rental (yes, he is good) with Burnett you have that huge salary. With Blanton you have the pro to each of those cons: 2+ years and small SP $. The guy is only 27 and having him opens things up for us…financially and roster wise.
How about this…his first 4 starts we win. he will get be credited for 2-3 of those wins. That is my gut reaction. Including a win vs Mets.
July 18th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Cardenas had no where to play in Philly. You have to believe we could have got a better deal with him as part of it. I was upset when they didn’t sign Lohse. Blanton has potential though, and has had good outings against the Mets. Changing leagues usually gives the pitcher the edge. I reserve judgement on the trade and am hoping that Blanton turns into the ace that Oakland thought he would become.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
the phils should have pursued the matt cain trade maybe if they added a little bit more they might have landed cain. As long as they don’t trade any minor leaguers named carlos lou, greg, or jason.
July 20th, 2008 at 3:28 am
I don’t think it is fair to compare getting Blanton now to getting Lohse at the beginning of the season. Lohse had his chance to choose to be with the Phillies last year and he can thank his agent Scott Boras that he’s making $4.25 million this year instead of $7 million. Eaton put up 10 quality starts and had by far the lowest run support of any of the Phillies starters. The Phillies went almost 90 games before they needed a starter other than their original five. If Eaton had continued pitching as he had up till his last five games, he would still be in the rotation and Happ could have been all the backup plan the Phils would have needed. It’s easy to have hindsight now, but if the starters had merely pitched “like they were supposed to” and no better, this whole discussion would not even be happening.
July 20th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
The Phillies have the best bullpen in the league and are second in runs scored. It seems like there’s a good chance they’ll lead the NL in runs scored again when the season’s over. Their starting pitchers have thrown to a 4.54 ERA, which is 11th-best in the league. I think you can make the case that the rotation is the place where the Phils have the biggest opportunity to improve their team.
Coming into the season I think it wasn’t unreasonable to think that Eaton and/or Kendrick would both struggle. Myers turned out to be worse than either of them, which I think would have been harder to predict.
I agree that the negotiations between the Phils and Lohse got messed up and that’s probably not all the Phillies’ fault. I have no idea whether or not the Phillies had a chance to sign Lohse at $4.25 million before the season started. But if they did and chose not to I think it was a mistake and that’s been my opinion since March.
http://www.philliesflow.com/2008/03/14/looking-for-a-stranger/