Something must be to blame for all the problems the Phils had in one-run games last season, mustn’t it? Sadly it mustn’t. They could simply be some or mostly bad luck. At the same time, you can make a case that in the one-run games that the Phillies lost in 2007 they had more problems scoring runs than they did preventing them.

Here are how many runs the Phils scored and allowed overall last year, in their games that they won or lost by more than one run and in their games that they won or lost by one run. Below that is the one run games broken down by whether or not they won or lost the game:

 

G


R


R/G


RA


RA/G

All games

162

892

5.51

821

5.07

Not 1-run games

125

729

5.83

649

5.19

1-run games

37

163

4.41

172

4.65
           

1-run games won

14

82

5.86

68

4.86

1-run games lost

23

81

3.52

104

4.52

The number of games played is very small, but the chart suggests that last year the Phils were better at preventing runs in games they lost by one run than in games they won by one run. It also suggests that in all one-run games, whether the Phils won or lost, they allowed fewer runs per game on average than in their games overall. The runs against numbers are very close to each other in the one-run games regardless of whether the Phils won or lost. The runs that the Phillies scored aren’t.

Here’s what it looks like if you take the runs scored and allowed in one run games and divide them by the average number of runs that the Phils scored (5.51) and allowed (5.07) over the entire season:

 

R/5.51


RA/5.07

1-run wins

1.06

.96

1-run losses

.64

.89

The runs scored in games the Phils lost by one run is pretty clearly the one of these things that’s not like the others.

The most surprising thing, though, isn’t that the runs scored differ so much between the one run games that the Phillies lost and won. The Phillies scored far more runs in games they won last year than in games they lost and their average runs scored per game in games they won was much higher than their runs scored per game in games they lost. The most surprising thing is how little the runs they allowed differed. Because in the same way that the Phils scored far more runs in their average win than in their average loss, they also allowed far more runs in their average loss than they did in their average win.

Chad Durbin got the start yesterday afternoon as the Phils topped the Indians 6-4 to improve to 7-12 in spring training.

Durbin went five innings, allowing three runs on four hits and two walks. Two of the hits went for extra-bases, a double and a two-run home run by Aaron Herr. Clay Condrey is making a strong case to win a spot in the pen. Out of options, Condrey followed Durbin and threw a scoreless sixth, allowing one single and lowering his spring ERA to 3.86. JC Romero followed with a scoreless inning of his own in which he walked one batter. Vic Darensbourg was next and he threw a scoreless frame, also walking one hitter and dropping his ERA to 3.00. Tom Gordon pitched the ninth and allowed a run on a solo shot by Victor Martinez, puffing Flash’s spring ERA to 9.64. It’s not really a misleading 9.64 either.

Victorino, surrounded by recent speculation that Manuel is not pleased with his attitude, had a big day with the bat. He was 2-for-2 with three RBI. Ruiz went 3-for-4 with three singles and an RBI. He’s hitting .417. Feliz was 0-for-4 to drop his average to .238. Rollins was 2-for-3 with two doubles, hopefully he’s heating up in time for the start of the season after a weak spring. Ditto Utley, who 2-for-2 with a walk and a triple. Snelling was 0-for-2 and Helms walked in his only chance.

The Phillies play the Devil Rays today.

Brad Lidge threw live batting practice yesterday and should appear in a Grapefruit League game this weekend.

The article linked above suggests the Phils should trade Wes Helms to the Giants for Steve Kline and the only fly in the ointment is the complete and total lack of interest on the part of San Francisco in acquiring Helms.

Kris Benson will not pitch in a minor league game tomorrow as scheduled due to soreness in his right arm. Everyone seems to say it’s not a big deal. We’ll see.

Jason Jaramillo, Pete Laforest and Brennan King have all been reassigned to minor league camp.