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One run blame games
By egrissom | March 18, 2008
Something must be to blame for all the problems the Phils had in one-run games last season, mustn’t it? Sadly it mustn’t. They could simply be some or mostly bad luck. At the same time, you can make a case that in the one-run games that the Phillies lost in 2007 they had more problems scoring runs than they did preventing them.
Here are how many runs the Phils scored and allowed overall last year, in their games that they won or lost by more than one run and in their games that they won or lost by one run. Below that is the one run games broken down by whether or not they won or lost the game:
G |
R |
R/G |
RA |
RA/G |
|
All games |
162 |
892 |
5.51 |
821 |
5.07 |
Not 1-run games |
125 |
729 |
5.83 |
649 |
5.19 |
1-run games |
37 |
163 |
4.41 |
172 |
4.65 |
1-run games won |
14 |
82 |
5.86 |
68 |
4.86 |
1-run games lost |
23 |
81 |
3.52 |
104 |
4.52 |
The number of games played is very small, but the chart suggests that last year the Phils were better at preventing runs in games they lost by one run than in games they won by one run. It also suggests that in all one-run games, whether the Phils won or lost, they allowed fewer runs per game on average than in their games overall. The runs against numbers are very close to each other in the one-run games regardless of whether the Phils won or lost. The runs that the Phillies scored aren’t.
Here’s what it looks like if you take the runs scored and allowed in one run games and divide them by the average number of runs that the Phils scored (5.51) and allowed (5.07) over the entire season:
R/5.51 |
RA/5.07 |
|
1-run wins |
1.06 |
.96 |
1-run losses |
.64 |
.89 |
The runs scored in games the Phils lost by one run is pretty clearly the one of these things that’s not like the others.
The most surprising thing, though, isn’t that the runs scored differ so much between the one run games that the Phillies lost and won. The Phillies scored far more runs in games they won last year than in games they lost and their average runs scored per game in games they won was much higher than their runs scored per game in games they lost. The most surprising thing is how little the runs they allowed differed. Because in the same way that the Phils scored far more runs in their average win than in their average loss, they also allowed far more runs in their average loss than they did in their average win.
Chad Durbin got the start yesterday afternoon as the Phils topped the Indians 6-4 to improve to 7-12 in spring training.
Durbin went five innings, allowing three runs on four hits and two walks. Two of the hits went for extra-bases, a double and a two-run home run by Aaron Herr. Clay Condrey is making a strong case to win a spot in the pen. Out of options, Condrey followed Durbin and threw a scoreless sixth, allowing one single and lowering his spring ERA to 3.86. JC Romero followed with a scoreless inning of his own in which he walked one batter. Vic Darensbourg was next and he threw a scoreless frame, also walking one hitter and dropping his ERA to 3.00. Tom Gordon pitched the ninth and allowed a run on a solo shot by Victor Martinez, puffing Flash’s spring ERA to 9.64. It’s not really a misleading 9.64 either.
Victorino, surrounded by recent speculation that Manuel is not pleased with his attitude, had a big day with the bat. He was 2-for-2 with three RBI. Ruiz went 3-for-4 with three singles and an RBI. He’s hitting .417. Feliz was 0-for-4 to drop his average to .238. Rollins was 2-for-3 with two doubles, hopefully he’s heating up in time for the start of the season after a weak spring. Ditto Utley, who 2-for-2 with a walk and a triple. Snelling was 0-for-2 and Helms walked in his only chance.
The Phillies play the Devil Rays today.
Brad Lidge threw live batting practice yesterday and should appear in a Grapefruit League game this weekend.
The article linked above suggests the Phils should trade Wes Helms to the Giants for Steve Kline and the only fly in the ointment is the complete and total lack of interest on the part of San Francisco in acquiring Helms.
Kris Benson will not pitch in a minor league game tomorrow as scheduled due to soreness in his right arm. Everyone seems to say it’s not a big deal. We’ll see.
Jason Jaramillo, Pete Laforest and Brennan King have all been reassigned to minor league camp.
Topics: Uncategorized |
March 18th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Back to the Charlie Manual thing…I really think you have to believe that he has a lot to do with the Phillies lousy record in one-run games. I did a (very) quick search for his history, and in his five full seasons as manager (only managed half of 2002 with Cleveland) he has been over .500 in one-run games only once, 2001. I realize it is a small sample size, but eventually a trend will show itself. If you count all of the one-run games he has managed, including the 2002 season, he is 106-117 for teams that always finished first or second in their division (with the lone exception being 2002, which he didn’t manage the whole year). So, in one run games he’s at a .475 clip and in all other games he manages at a .558 clip (376-298). I haven’t looked at other manager’s numbers to see what theirs looks like, but this to me seems troubling. It seems to me that there is a correlation here.
Long story short, the division is probably going to come down to just a few games at the end of the season. If they Phillies lose a few more one-run games than they should have due to poor in game management, it’s going to be tough for them to repeat as champs.
I really used to like Manual until I started reading this thread the last few days and doing some research on the issue. CRAP!
March 18th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
I actually think some of the problems the Phillies have had in one run games are Manuel’s fault but like him as a manager anyway. I think the decisions he makes in games can only sway the chances of winning one way or another by tiny percentages. In my mind, the value of having the guys on his team enjoying playing for him is harder to quantify but more important. Big decisions, like should Brett Myers be a starter or a closer, who should be the fifth starter, etc, are obviously a different matter.
March 19th, 2008 at 9:00 am
Regarding your informative One Run info, I would like to see another colume added that factors in 2 strike hitting with RISP.
I am not a stathead but I watch every game and my impression is that some of the Phils best hitters sucked with 2 strikes in a game winning situation. This is one of the reasons I will not miss Rowan although he is my kind of player.
Having personally watched while A. Fultz swung at the first 2 pitches with bases loaded in an extra inning game, and lived to tell about, is one compelling reason to say Charlie is a problem in these situations, but who is sitting next to him constantly whispering, Bench Coach Jimy!!!
I’ll be the first to admit that my memory is not what it used to be but the games that stick in my mind are those last inning W’S&L’s. And as your stats indicate, there were a lot of pitchers who could not get down a bunt, top of the order lead off guy who trys to hit the GW homer, cleanup guy who cannot layoff the big slider and Rowan’s weak INF pops.
My guess is that Nunez wasn’t responsible for losing as many games with his bat as he was for winning games with his glove.
March 19th, 2008 at 9:31 am
I guess the biggest question is whether Manuel had the right guys in the game and, like you suggest, some of them were just bad hitters when the game was on the line or if Manuel had the wrong guys in the game altogether. I don’t know the answer. Even with Rowand flailing like you describe in key situations, I don’t think there were many Phillies fans last year who would have thought he shouldn’t have been in the game when it was on the line. But I agree that a few bad at-bats in a few key situatons could have made a huge difference in the one run games for the year.
March 19th, 2008 at 11:06 am
I will be interested to see if PTB gets as many walks with Rowan gone.
What’s your bet with Feliz hitting behind PTB Vs Werth or Jenkins??
Now that I think about, Feliz maybe hitting 8th!!
March 19th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
My guess would be it would go Rollins-Victorino-Utley-Howard-Burrell-Jenkins-Feliz-Ruiz against a right-handed pitcher. Burrell drew the most walks of his career last season. I think no matter who hits behind him his walks will be down a little from ‘07 but still really high, around 100 (last year 114).