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July 20 2007

Eight NL teams are in a better position to make the playoffs than the Phils.  Here's a look at nine of the contenders for the four NL playoff spots, their current record, runs scored and allowed, their Pythagorean record to date and their Pythagorean record over 162 games based on the runs they've scored and allowed so far:

 

  Current Real     Current Pyth Pyth over 162
Team W L RS RA W L W L
PHI 47 48 503 499 48 47 82 80
NYM 53 42 433 403 51 44 87 75
ATL 51 45 450 436 50 46 84 78
                 
MIL 54 41 461 413 53 42 90 72
CHI 50 44 444 392 53 41 91 71
                 
LA 54 42 449 412 52 44 88 74
ARI 50 47 395 431 44 53 74 88
SD 53 41 396 323 56 38 97 65
COL 48 47 467 468 47 48 81 81

Based on real record, the four playoff teams right now are the Mets, Brewers, Padres and Dodgers. 

Based on Pythagorean record, the four playoff teams are the Mets, Cubs, Padres and Brewers.

The Phillies are the worst of the nine by actual record.  By Pythagorean record they are seventh, better than the Diamondbacks and Rockies. 

The Pythagorean records suggest the team that wins the NL Wild Card, the Brewers, will win 90 games.  To go 90-72 this season the Phils would need to 43-24 the rest of the way.

The current Wild Card team, the Dodgers, are on pace to win 91 games.


July 20 2007

 

Team W-L R R/G NL Rank R OPS (NL Rank) SB CS
SD 52-41 395 4.25 12 704 (13) 39 16
PHI 47-47 503 5.35 1 808 (1) 73 12

 

Team W-L RA RA/G NL Rank RA Starter ERA Pen ERA
SD 52-41 323 3.47 1 3.41 (1) 2.63 (1)
PHI 47-47 498 5.30 16 5.13 (14) 4.69 (14)

The Phils got a fantastic start from Cole Hamels last night in San Diego, but Chris Young was just a little better.  The Padres put together a single and an RBI-double in the third and that's all they would need as they held on for a 1-0 win.

The Phillies had opportunities to score in the fourth and the ninth.  In both innings they put two men on base with one out but couldn't get the hit they needed.

San Diego had just three hits, two of which came off the bat of Geoff Blum, who also scored the game's only run.

Second-straight loss for the Phils in a one-run game.  They got four hits last night after managing just one base-runner after the fifth inning in Wednesday's game.

The Phillies lost to the San Diego Padres last night, falling to 47-48 on the year.  They are in third-place in the NL East, six games behind the Mets and 3 1/2 behind the second-place Braves.  They have lost four of their last five.

Hamels got the start for the Phillies and went seven innings, allowing a run on two hits, a single and a double.  He walked one and struck out three.  He threw just 89 pitches.

The Padres didn't have a base-runner until the third when Geoff Blum hit a one-out single into center.  The pitcher Chris Young bunted Blum to second before Brian Giles doubled to left to score Blum and put the Padres up 1-0.  Hamels got Milton Bradley on a ground ball to short to end the inning.

Hamels set the Padres down 1-2-3 in the fourth, fifth and sixth. 

In the seventh he gave up a leadoff walk to Adrian Gonzalez, but struck out the next two hitters and got Michael Barrett on a popup to second to end the inning.

Romero pitched the eighth with the Phils down 1-0 and struck out Kevin Kouzmanoff to start the inning before Blum followed with a soft single into left.  Romero struck out pinch-hitter Jose Cruz and got Giles looking to end the inning. 

Romero has been charged with one run one three hits over five innings in his last nine appearances.

The Phillies' lineup against righty Chris Young went (1) Rollins (2) Victorino (3) Utley (4) Howard (5) Rowand (6) Burrell (7) Dobbs (8) Ruiz.  Ruiz behind the plate and Dobbs plays third against the righty.

The Philes went 1-2-3 in the first before Howard led off the second and drew an 11-pitch walk.  Rowand, Burrell and Dobbs all flew out behind him.

The Phils went 1-2-3 in the third. 

With one out in the fourth, Utley singled and stole second.  Howard followed with a walk, which put men on first and second with one out for Rowand.  Rowand flew to center and Burrell grounded to short to turn the Phils away.

After a 1-2-3 fifth, Utley doubled down the line in right with two outs in the sixth.  Howard walked again, but Rowand again flew out, this time to right.

Young struck out Burrell and Dobbs in a 1-2-3 seventh.

Heath Bell pitched the eighth.  Bourn hit for Hamels to start the inning and struck out.  Rollins was next and grounded to first, but Victorino singled to right with two outs.  Utley flew to left for the third out.  You have to hit for Hamels to start the inning down 1-0 in the eighth, 89 pitches or not.

Trevor Hoffman came on in the ninth to protect the 1-0 San Diego lead.  He struck out Howard for the first out before Rowand followed with a walk.  Burrell was next and he singled into left, moving Rowand to second.  Nunez ran for Burrell at first, but with men on first and second and one out Dobbs and Ruiz both went down swinging to end the game.

Rollins was 0-for-4.

Victorino was 1-for-4.

Utley was 2-for-4 with the only extra-base hit for the Phils, a double.  He stole his seventh base of the season.

Howard was 0-for-1 and walked three times.

Rowand was 0-for-3 with a walk and left five men on base, which is a lot given that the Phils had eight base-runners in the game. 

Burrell was 1-for-4.

Dobbs was 0-for-4 with three strikeouts.  He's 1-for-his-last-14.

Ruiz was 0-for-4 with a strikeout.

Adam Eaton (8-6, 5.98) faces righty Jason Germano (6-3, 3.55) tonight.  Eaton has been awful this season.  Lefties have hit him especially hard, batting .312 with a 1.82 ratio against him.  Eaton pitched for the Padres between 2000 and 2005 and has made 28 career starts at Petco Park, going 11-9 with a 4.39 ERA.  The Phillies got Germano from the Reds last July in the deal that sent Rheal Cormier to Cincinnati.  The Phils put him on waivers in March and he was claimed by the Padres, who had drafted him in the 13th round of the 2000 draft.  He's made 12 starts for San Diego and opponents have hit just .242 against him.  He's walked just 16 in 71 innings.  There's certainly a temptation to think that his success is in large part due to Petco, but he's been better on the road than at home.  He's 2-2 with a 5.46 ERA at home and 4-1 with a 2.30 ERA on the road.  He's been hit harder of late -- in his last three starts he's 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA.

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