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July 3 2007

Despite leading the league in runs scored, the Phillies have allowed more runs than they have scored this season.  It's the kind of thing that can be a blow to your playoff hopes.

Here's a look at some of the playoff hopefuls from the NL, their current record, runs scored and allowed, their Pythagorean record to date and their Pythagorean record over 162 games based on the runs they've scored and allowed so far:


  Current Real     Current Pyth Pyth over 162
Team W L RS RA W L W L
PHI 42 41 427 431 41 42 80 82
NYM 46 35 370 320 46 35 93 69
ATL 43 40 373 369 42 41 82 80
MIL 48 34 410 355 47 35 93 69
CHI 41 40 376 342 44 37 89 73
LA 47 36 369 329 46 37 90 72
ARI 46 38 350 364 40 44 78 84
SD 47 34 351 271 51 30 101 61
COL 40 43 383 409 39 44 76 86

Mets, Brewers, Dodgers and Padres go to the playoffs on the Pythagorean records, which is the same group that would be going based on the actual records as well.  The Phils are the seventh-best of the nine teams according to the formula, better than the Rockies and the Snakes.  Based on their actual current record they are tied with the Cubs for being the seventh-best of the nine teams, better than only Colorado. 

The formula is not impressed with the Diamondbacks, which is the team that takes the biggest hit in the Pythagorean standings compared to their actual record.  The Cubs and Padres do the best.  The formula says the Padres are the best team in the National League.  I agree, but San Diego is already four wins behind their Pythagorean pace.

July 3 2007


Team W-L R R/G NL Rank R OPS (NL Rank) SB CS
HOU 35-47 370 4.51 7 742 (9) 34 23
PHI 42-40 422 5.15 1 783 (3) 68 10


Team W-L RA RA/G NL Rank RA Starter ERA Pen ERA
HOU 35-47 410 5.00 13 4.40 (9) 5.27 (16)
PHI 42-40 428 5.22 16 5.00 (14) 4.69 (13)

Maybe they can get themselves a relief pitcher.  That would be nice for them.

If you thought the Phils would bounce-back from their miserable series with the Mets in Houston, the bounce-back didn't start last night.  Phillies' relievers walked in two runs in the bottom of the seventh and the Phils' late rally fell short.  If they're going to win tonight they're going to have to beat Roy Oswalt. 

The Phils again find themselves just one game above .500.

The Phillies lost to the Houston Astros last night, falling 7-5 to drop to 42-41 on the season.  They have lost four of their last five.

Jamie Moyer got the start for the Phillies and went six innings, allowing four runs on nine hits and two walks.  Four of the hits went for extra-bases, three doubles and a home run.  He struck out two. 

Moyer started the first with a 1-0 lead.  Craig Biggio led off with a double to left.  Biggio stayed at second as Hunter Pence grounded to third and Lance Berkman lined to third.  Carlos Lee came up with a two-out single into center, though, and Biggio came around to score and tie the game at 1-1.  Mike Lamb grounded to short to end the inning.

Moyer gave up a two-out walk to Eric Bruntlett in the second.  Woody Williams grounded to third to set the Astros down. 

Pence singled to left with one out in the third and Berkman followed with a double to left.  Pence score to tie the game at 2-2.  Lee popped to first for the second out.  Lamb was next and he hit a ground ball to Howard.  Howard flipped to Moyer covering first and Moyer dropped the ball for an error.  Berkman tried to come around to score, but Moyer picked up the ball and threw home to Ruiz was tagged him out to end the inning.

Bruntlett singled with two outs in the fourth, but Williams flew to center to leave him stranded.

Biggio started the fifth with a double and Pence followed with a two-run shot down the line and off the pole in left.  It put the Astros up 4-2.  Moyer got Berkman on a ground ball to third, but then walked Lee and hit Lamb with a pitch.  Burke flew to left for the second out and Brad Ausmus struck out to end the inning.

Bruntlett singled to start the sixth and Williams bunted him to second.  With Biggio at the plate, Bruntlett took off for third but left too soon.  Moyer started a rundown that ended with Bruntlett tagged out for the second out.  Biggio followed and reached on an infield hit to second, but Pence flew to center for the third out.

Sanches started the seventh and walked Berkman to start the inning.  Lee popped to first for the first out of the inning, but Lamb was next and he blooped a single in front of a diving Burrell.   "Dive" may be generous, it was kind of an  organized stumble in the general direction of the ball.  Burke popped to second for the second out, but Sanches walked Ausmus to load the bases.  Sanches got behind Bruntlett 2-0 before Bruntlett hit a high foul ball down the right field line.  Victorino raced to the short wall and jumped over the wall and into the stands as the ball landed about four rows deep.  Unbelievable effort by Victorino at a big moment in the game with Sanches floundering.  Victorino stayed in the game, apparently mostly uninjured.  Sanches walked Bruntlett to put the Astros up 5-3.  Mark Loretta pinch-hit for the pitcher Williams and Mesa took over for Sanches.  Mesa got ahead of Loretta 0-2, didn't get the call on a close 1-2 pitch and went on to walk Loretta.  6-3.  Mesa got Biggio to ground to third to end the inning.  Phillies' pitchers walk in two runs and allow four walks in the frame.

Mesa returned for the eighth and got the first two before Lee hit a long home run to left that put Houston up 7-3.  He walked Lamb before getting Burke to pop to second for the third out.

Phils' relievers have issued seven walks in their last 4 1/3 innings.

The Phillies lineup against righty Woody Williams went (1) Rollins (2) Victorino (3) Utley (4) Howard (5) Rowand (6) Burrell (7) Nunez (8) Ruiz.  Nunez at third with Moyer pitching and Ruiz behind the plate.  Would have rather seen Dobbs or Helms at third.

Rollins and Victorino singled back-to-back to start the first, putting runners on first and third with nobody out.  The Phils would only get one out of it.  Utley grounded to the pitcher, Victorino went to second with Rollins holding third.  Howard was walked intentionally to load the bases.  Rowand hit a fly ball to right.  Burke caught it and threw home.  Rollins scored to put the Phils up 1-0, but Ausmus threw to third and Victorino was caught between second and third and tagged out after a short rundown.  Not a good play by Victorino and it looked worse when Burrell led off the next inning with a home run.  

Burrell homered to left to start the second, putting the Phils up 2-1.  The next three Phils went in order. 

The Phillies went 1-2-3 in the third.

In the fourth, Howard led off with a single but was erased when Rowand followed and hit into a double-play.  Burrell popped to short to end the inning.

The Phils went 1-2-3 in the fifth.

In the sixth, Victorino homered to right with one out, cutting the Astros' lead to 4-3.  Second home run in two days for Victorino.  Utley grounded to second and Howard grounded to first to set the Phillies down.  I would have liked to see Rowand bat, though, cause I don't remember ever seeing anyone ground to center.

Nunez singled to center with two outs in the seventh.  Ruiz followed and flew to center for the third out. 

With one out in the eighth, Rollins hit a long fly ball to right.  A fan reached over and tried to catch the ball, which looked like it would have hit off the very top of the fence.  Rollins had a double.  Victorino was called out on strikes and Utley popped to third. 

Howard started the ninth with a double before Rowand popped to third.  Burrell walked, putting men on first and second.  Helms pinch-hit for Mesa and was hit by a pitch to load the bases with one out.  Ruiz hit it well to deep center and Pence got a glove on it, but Ruiz was given a double and two runs came in.  It made the score 7-5 with men on second and third and one out.  Lefty Trever Miller came in to pitch to Dobbs, and Coste hit for Dobbs.  Bourn ran for Ruiz at second as the tying run.  Coste grounded to third and the runners held.  Rollins flew to center to end the game.

Rollins was 2-for-5 with a double.

Victorino was 2-for-4 with a home run, his tenth of the year.  He had eight career home runs in 505 at-bats coming into the season and has ten in 314 at-bats this season.  He's 5-for-his-last-10 with two home runs.  The base running mistake in the first was bad, though, even if the next batter hadn't hit a home run.

Utley was 0-for-4 and left three men on base.  He's 1-for-his-last-12.

Howard was 2-for-3 with a double and a walk. 

Rowand 0-for-3 with an RBI. 

Burrell was 1-for-3 with a walk and a home run, his ninth of the year.

Nunez was 1-for-3.

Ruiz 1-for-4 with a two-run double.

Adam Eaton (7-5, 5.75) faces righty Roy Oswalt (7-5, 3.42) tonight.  After a May in which he went 3-1 with a 3.98 in five starts, Eaton was awful again in June.  In his six June starts he was 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA.  Over his last two outings he's gone 11 1/3 innings, allowing 11 runs on 14 hits, including four home runs.  In 92 1/3 innings this season he has walked 43.  The Phillies need him now in a big way.  So far this season he hasn't been up to the task.  Oswalt has allowed more than three runs once in his last six starts.  He's surprisingly been significantly better at home than on the road this season, going 5-1 with a 2.11 ERA at home and 2-4 with a 5.68 ERA on the road.  Opponents are hitting .239 against him at home and .304 on the road.  He's also been hit harder by righties than by lefties overall.  Righties are hitting .279 against him and have hit seven of the ten home runs he has allowed.  Lefties are hitting just .249.  He started against the Phils on April 13 and the Phils scored six runs against him in five innings without an extra-base hit.  The Astros won the game 9-6 fueled by three home runs from Carlos Lee.

The Start Log is updated to include the team record based on whether or not the Phillies starting pitcher made a quality start.

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