Others wary, but many believe Lieber's stamina may be sufficient for jog in from the pen
March 21 2007
Popular consensus seems
to have the Phillies keeping six starters and, despite my seemingly lone
vote for Hamels, most think it's Lieber or Eaton headed to the pen. Some
have suggested in recent days that of the two, Lieber might be better suited
for a bullpen role than Eaton.
I still have some questions about whether the Phillies will actually put
Lieber in the pen. He started for them on opening day last season,
it's hard to think the Phillies' perception of him has gone from best
starter to sixth starter in a year. If they still have him at the
start of the season they will no doubt still be trying to trade him to a
team that would use him as a starter -- it's hard to demonstrate he's a
valuable starter if you aren't willing to give him the ball yourself.
Last season was the first in the last ten in which he's thrown to an ERA over 4.50. Still, I think you
can make the case that Lieber would do a better job out of the pen than
Eaton.
When you look at a starting pitcher's numbers for the first 15 pitches he
throws, there are several things that are important not to forget. First is
that it's very common for a starting pitcher to have worse numbers in his
first 15 pitches than he does overall. The second is that this more likely represents the fact that the starting pitcher is facing better
hitters than that he is less effective in his first 15 pitches. The first
inning is the inning in which the team the starting pitcher is facing can
best control who will come to the plate -- they usually send their best
hitters (at least by the time they get to third in the order, if not in the
leadoff man and second hitter).
That said, Lieber has just been better than Eaton in his first 15 pitches
over his career. Here's what the two have done in their first 15 pitches
compared to their career numbers:
| First 15 pitches | |||||
| Player | IP | ERA | Ratio | Career ERA | Career Ratio |
| Lieber | 305.2 | 4.74 | 1.32 | 4.26 | 1.27 |
| Eaton | 109.0 | 6.11 | 1.47 | 4.40 | 1.36 |
I'm not holding back on
you, I genuinely have no idea what the Phillies will do. Lieber's career
numbers suggest that he might be a better bullpen pitcher, but they also
suggest that he's been a better starter. I don't think that the fact that
the Phillies want to trade Lieber, and that he has more value as a starter
than as a middle reliever, should be forgotten.
I'm still waiting for momentum to build on the Hamels thing.
Hamels allowed four runs in 3 2/3 innings in minor league game.
Alex Gonzalez's
passion for the game has been reignited.
The Phillies fell to the Yankees last night, losing 2-0 to drop to 7-13 in
spring training.
The Phillies got three hits, all singles. Victorino was 2-for-4 and Burrell
had the other knock. Kei Igawa shut them down for five innings, allowing
two singles and three walks. He was followed by four Yankees relievers who
combined to allow one hit.
Garcia was 0-for-1 with a
strikeout. Bourn 0-for-1.
The Phillies made three errors. Howard, Victorino and Nunez.
Zack Segovia got the start for the Phils and was tremendous. He allowed a
run in five innings on five hits without walking a batter. Madson followed
Segovia and threw a 1-2-3 sixth. He returned for the seventh and allowed a
single and an RBI-double, but the run was unearned due to an error by
Victorino. Alfonseca set the Yankees down 1-2-3 in the eighth.
I don't think Segovia really has a chance for a bullpen spot, but it's being discussed.
The Phillies play the Blue Jays tonight.