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February 13 2007

After writing yesterday that Pat Burrell puts the ball in play on the first pitch more often than expected, I wanted to look at how he compared to other hitters who, like Burrell, see a huge number of pitches.  During 2006, Burrell saw 4.32 pitches per plate appearance, which was fifth-most in all of baseball.

If you look at Burrell compared to the other guys in the top ten in pitches per plate appearance, there are two things that stick out:  The first is that compared to the rest of the group, Burrell puts the ball in play on the first pitch far more often.  The second is that he is a much worse hitter than the rest of the group when he gets behind in the count.

Here are the ten players, how many pitches they saw per plate appearance, how many at-bats and plate appearances ended on the first pitch, how they produced offensively on the first pitch and how it compared to their OPS overall.

 

Player P/PA 1st pitch AB Total AB % AB 1st pitch PA Total PA % PA OPS 1st pitch Total OPS
B Abreu 4.45 35 548 6.4 36 686 5.2 914 926
K Youkilis 4.42 33 569 5.8 37 680 5.4 776 810
J Giambi 4.37 44 446 9.9 47 579 8.1 799 971
F Thomas 4.36 32 466 6.9 34 559 6.0 1.566 926
P Burrell 4.32 61 462 13.2 63 567 11.1 1.069 890
J Thome 4.31 52 490 10.6 57 610 9.3 1.535 1.014
N Johnson 4.28 46 500 9.2 47 628 7.5 630 948
C Beltran 4.20 34 510 6.7 37 617 6.0 1.183 982
T Glaus 4.20 41 540 7.6 41 634 6.5 1.073 868
T Hafner 4.20 33 454 7.3 34 564 6.0 961 1.097

Burrell swung the stick on the first pitch more than any of them.  He produced more offense on the first pitch than he did for the season overall.  Of the ten players, half posted a higher OPS on a 0-0 count and half lower.  The most dramatic cases may be Nick Johnson, who was way worse on the first pitch, and Jim Thome, who was way better.

Another big way in which Burrell is different from the rest of the group is what happens where he gets behind in the count:
 
  0-1 0-2 1-2
Player AB OPS AB OPS AB OPS
B Abreu 47 781 37 514 102 632
K Youkilis 57 961 37 297 95 574
J Giambi 30 1.158 25 425 62 635
F Thomas 36 1.222 34 529 54 623
P Burrell 22 564 28 176 61 391
J Thome 22 1.458 21 571 54 441
N Johnson 41 1.053 28 493 69 444
C Beltran 40 1.150 32 494 82 619
T Glaus 47 1.198 27 481 117 385
T Hafner 29 1.262 33 818 61 603

Burrell's .564 OPS while hitting with an 0-1 count is, by a staggering margin, the worst of the group.  His .176 while hitting 0-2 is also the worst and his .391 while hitting with a 1-2 count is ninth of the ten players.  The players on the list include some of the best hitters in baseball.  Overall, seven of the ten hit for a higher OPS than Burrell did in '06.  They were not, however, as a group as overwhelmingly superior to Burrell as they were when down in the count.

For the season in '06, when Burrell was hitting with the count 0-1, 0-2 or 1-2, he went 16-for-111 (.144).  By comparison, Utley, who was a better hitter than Burrell last season, was 64-for-225 (.284).  Rowand, who was a worse hitter than Burrell last season, was 30-for-137 (.219).

Jon Lieber's house in Newtown Square is for sale.

Charlie Manuel thinks the Phillies can generate more runs by playing small ball.  Please no.

Some Adam Dunn fans are down on Mike Schmidt.

Yesterday, Eric Gagne was slated to throw from a mound for the first time since surgery.  A healthy Gagne might make it more possible for Texas to trade Akinori Otsuka.

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