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Burrell awake and alert for the first pitch more often than some would guess
February 12
2007
One of the things I thought I knew from watching the Phillies play was that Pat Burrell was a guy who was unlikely to swing the stick early in an at-bat.
Here's a look at what the players who got at least 400 at-bats with the Phillies last season did:
| Player | AB w/ball in play on 1st pitch | Total AB | % of AB | OPS |
| Utley | 56 | 658 | 8.5 | 1.390 |
| Rollins | 70 | 689 | 10.1 | 806 |
| Rowand | 48 | 405 | 11.9 | 950 |
| Victorino | 53 | 415 | 12.8 | 867 |
| Burrell | 61 | 462 | 13.2 | 1.069 |
| Howard | 80 | 581 | 13.8 | 1.273 |
Using at-bats as the measure, Burrell put the ball in play on the first pitch a higher percentage of the time than Utley, Rollins, Rowand or Victorino. He was also effective, hitting to a 1.069 OPS compared to his .890 for the season. Rollins was the only player of the six who posted a lower OPS with the count 0-0 than he did for the season overall -- and he wasn't putting the ball in play on the first pitch nearly as much as I would have guessed.
Using at-bats rather than plate appearances is significant, especially when talking about Burrell given all the walks he draws. Using plate appearances rather than at-bats, his 13.2% drops to 11.1%. The number is down for most of the guys on the list. Rowand stays about the same and Victorino's percentage goes up -- Rowand and Victorino are more likely to get hit by a pitched ball or sacrifice on the first pitch, outcomes that count as a plate appearance but not an at-bat. Obviously you can't walk on the first pitch. If you use plate appearances instead of at-bats, Burrell is still ending his plate appearance on the first pitch a higher percentage of the time than Utley and Rollins, but not Rowand or Victorino.
Without looking at the numbers, my guess would have been that Burrell was probably putting the ball in play on the first pitch about as often as Abreu. Not so (includes his time last year with the Phils and Yankees):
| Player | AB w/ ball in play on 1st pitch | Total AB | % of AB | OPS |
| Abreu | 35 | 548 | 6.3 | 914 |
If you also have a preconceived notion that Burrell is awful when he's down in the count 0-2, well, the good news is that's one we can all hold on to. Over the past two seasons, while hitting with an 0-2 count Burrell is 4-for-64 with 40 strikeouts. Everybody hits worse down 0-2, but not everybody hits .063. Ryan Howard, for example, hit .143 in 49 at-bats last season. Utley .164. Rollins .239.
Most everyone's pretty awful, though. Howard, for example, was 7-for-49 hitting 0-2 last year with 31 strikeouts. What may be telling about Burrell's approach is that of the four hits in his last 64 at-bats when he was down 0-2, three of the four went for extra-bases (all doubles). I'm pretty sure he's not trying to slap the ball to the opposite field -- or if he is he's really not so good at it.
Speaking of Burrell, the bashing is heating up to the degree that's possible. This article points out there were many MLB players to hit at least 29 home runs and drive in at least 95 runs last year. Of the players that did hit at least 29 home runs and drive in at least 95, only three did it in fewer at-bats than Burrell.
Miguel Cabrera upset the Marlins front office by not showing up for FanFest.
This article from the Denver Post picks the Phillies to finish second in the NL East and not make the playoffs. They have the Padres as the Wild Card team.
Yahoo! Sports reviews the NL East.
Top prospects of the NL Central at RotoWorld.